SnowGoose69 Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Wow.. Oklahoma city!! HECS for them perhaps with this solution I think they may get a bit shafted...the 500mb vort goes overhead which is odd to me...typically we would not see big snows there unless the 500 low was over N Texas...the later runs might shift the axis more into S KS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest stormchaser Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 NYC is snow through 51 hrs as per soundings. So, at least 2 inches of snow before the changeover. And through 48 hours here is what has fallen http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/nam/12/images/nam_p48_048l.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 And through 48 hours here is what has fallen http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/nam/12/images/nam_p48_048l.gif .25" is on NYC thru 51. http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/GemPakTier/MagGemPakImages/nam/20110130/12/nam_namer_051_precip_p12.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 We are in lala land on the NAM and if you ask me on every other model at this range as well. Don't trust anything this far out this year, especially if you're located in a borderline location. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 You would be surprised how far a strong amplified low can go. It has happened before and it will happen again. I would wait until tonight's runs to say that . I wouldn't be shocked to see this storm trend colder, especially if there is a strong high to the north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest stormchaser Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 NYC is snow through 51 hrs as per soundings. So, 2-3 inches of snow before the changeover. And through 54 hours it is this http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/nam/12/images/nam_p48_054l.gif But i do not know exactly how much of that happens between hours 51-54 when it is no longer snow. Seems to me it would be about 1-3" of snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 .25" is on NYC thru 51. http://mag.ncep.noaa..._precip_p12.gif That is probably way underdone as well...I posted earlier that someone in MA/CT/NY/NJ will see double digits on Tuesday with that WAA shot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 And through 54 hours it is this http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/nam/12/images/nam_p48_054l.gif But i do not know exactly how much of that happens between hours 51-54 when it is no longer snow. Seems to me it would be about 1-3" of snow NCEP experimental has 3 hour increments. This is what's fallen thru hour 51. .25"-.50" from NYC on west... http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/GemPakTier/MagGemPakImages/nam/20110130/12/nam_namer_051_precip_p12.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Snow in NW NJ through 54 hrs as per soundings. So about 3-4 inches of snow for NW NJ before the changeover. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Tell ya one thing, the srefs and nam at 500 mb at 84 hours is pointing to good things for the next event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest stormchaser Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 I would wait until tonight's runs to say that . I wouldn't be shocked to see this storm trend colder, especially if there is a strong high to the north. Oh i fully agree. Just looking at this objectively that's all. By the way werent the 12z runs today supposed to have recon data in them does anyone remember??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest stormchaser Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 NCEP experimental has 3 hour increments. This is what's fallen thru hour 51. .25"-.50" from NYC on west... http://mag.ncep.noaa..._precip_p12.gif Thank you, appreciate the images Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Our SW will be on the California coast for the 0z runs. We can expect changes tonight. Could be for the worse or better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 That is probably way underdone as well...I posted earlier that someone in MA/CT/NY/NJ will see double digits on Tuesday with that WAA shot. NAM starting to back you up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 The snow chart from StormVista from the 12z run has almost all of Eastern PA at 8+ inches of snow except the extreme SE part of the state but includes areas only miles for Philly, and puts Warren and Sussex Counties in NJ at 4-8 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tiburon Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 12Z NAM soundings for NYC: Forecast Hours: 0hr 6hr 12hr 18hr 24hr 30hr 36hr 42hr 48hr 54hr 60hr 66hr 72hr 78hr 84hr Sfc Prs(mb): 1012.1 1013.3 1016.1 1020.7 1023.2 1025.8 1025.7 1024.8 1023.3 1019.1 1017.1 1016.9 1011.6 998.6 996.5 Mean SLP (mb): 1017.9 1019.5 1022.1 1026.9 1029.6 1032.3 1032.0 1031.2 1029.6 1025.5 1023.7 1023.5 1017.9 1004.4 1002.4 2m agl Tmp (F): 21.2 31.6 27.7 20.3 15.3 24.4 21.1 23.1 24.5 29.3 27.6 26.3 28.4 34.6 32.1 2m agl Dewpt(F): 20.0 27.6 24.5 14.9 10.4 16.4 17.4 19.2 22.6 27.4 25.7 24.2 26.7 34.0 31.5 2m agl RH (%): 95 85 88 79 81 71 85 85 92 93 92 92 93 97 98 10m agl Dir: 300 279 292 328 343 14 47 76 71 56 47 55 85 109 359 10m agl Spd(kt): 4 7 8 9 8 6 5 6 11 11 13 9 12 10 5 6hr Precip (in): 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.07 0.37 0.05 0.02 0.11 0.67 0.29 AccumPrecip(in): 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.07 0.44 0.49 0.51 0.62 1.29 1.58 Sfc CAPE (J/kg): 0.0 0.0 13.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.1 0.0 0.0 1.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 Sfc CINH (J/kg): 0.0 -0.7 -5.3 -0.4 -0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 -1.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 -1.0 -0.9 0.0 0-3km Hel(J/kg): 55.3 160.3 80.2 253.5 132.5 105.7 231.2 354.0 543.5 947.5 429.8 292.1 569.1 1626.6 99.5 Precip H20 (in): 0.30 0.30 0.20 0.13 0.12 0.16 0.21 0.45 0.59 0.71 0.69 0.67 0.82 0.99 0.57 Lifted Index(C): 14.6 13.3 16.5 19.4 20.2 21.7 21.8 16.9 10.5 6.0 5.0 5.5 9.1 1.6 4.9 700mb VV(-ub/s): -2.2 -3.8 -1.2 -0.4 -0.5 0.3 1.5 2.1 5.0 4.8 1.0 1.2 4.2 13.4 7.2 Thk1000-500mb(m)5298.6 5274.3 5279.2 5270.4 5290.8 5296.6 5315.6 5326.6 5357.6 5398.4 5434.4 5432.5 5436.6 5512.1 5393.4 Thk1000-850mb(m)1275.9 1277.7 1271.6 1259.1 1257.8 1258.6 1263.3 1262.4 1277.4 1294.4 1299.8 1295.1 1297.8 1323.3 1314.5 Thk850-700mb(m):1506.7 1499.3 1507.3 1500.9 1508.4 1509.1 1511.4 1519.7 1533.0 1543.5 1555.5 1553.5 1549.6 1576.5 1539.9 SWEAT Index: 95.4 125.2 138.9 117.6 114.3 86.7 76.4 204.8 223.7 254.1 124.9 170.2 274.6 350.7 202.8 Total Totals Idx 33.5 36.4 25.6 17.0 11.4 2.9 4.6 30.7 40.8 45.4 46.3 44.7 37.5 45.2 45.6 Frz Hgt(ft amsl) 154 154 154 154 154 154 154 154 154 154 154 154 154 9138 5621 0WetBlbHgt(amsl) -1000 -1000 -1000 -1000 -1000 -1000 -1000 -1000 -1000 5595 7070 6907 6209 9138 5235 Equil Prs (mb): 1012 1013 1016 1021 1023 1026 1026 1025 1023 1019 1017 1017 1012 999 996 Equil Hgt(amsl): 154 154 154 154 154 154 154 154 154 154 154 154 154 154 154 Hail Size(in): 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Conv Wind Gust: 11.7 13.2 14.6 13.8 12.2 9.5 8.7 10.1 11.3 12.2 49.3 9.5 14.4 54.0 42.1 Showalter Index: 15.1 13.6 17.6 19.8 20.2 21.6 21.5 16.5 10.1 6.2 4.6 5.3 9.2 3.6 5.4 Cap Strength(C):-999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 Storm Dir (deg): 310 311 315 319 325 311 296 287 283 269 289 273 255 253 275 Storm Spd (kts): 27 32 35 32 29 23 20 23 27 28 22 22 33 46 40 2m HeatIndex(F): 21 32 28 20 15 24 21 23 24 29 28 26 28 35 32 2m WindChill(F): 15 25 19 9 4 16 14 15 13 19 16 16 17 26 27 1000mb GPH (m): 140 153 173 208 226 249 246 241 229 199 184 182 140 36 19 950mb GPH (m): 546 561 580 608 623 647 646 640 631 605 589 586 546 451 431 950mb Temp (C): -3.7 -3.5 -4.5 -8.4 -9.1 -9.5 -8.5 -8.7 -7.3 -3.9 -3.1 -4.7 -4.0 3.0 1.1 950mb Dewpt(C): -7.6 -7.0 -7.3 -12.6 -18.2 -16.5 -17.8 -13.4 -7.8 -4.3 -3.2 -4.9 -4.0 3.0 0.9 950mb RH (%): 74 76 80 72 48 57 47 69 96 97 99 98 100 100 99 950mb Dir: 307 290 314 345 360 19 66 116 105 104 81 92 113 158 282 950mb Speed(kt): 6 14 20 19 18 7 6 11 19 20 17 17 25 24 7 900mb GPH (m): 971 986 1002 1025 1041 1065 1065 1059 1054 1034 1022 1015 976 891 869 900mb Temp (C): -6.4 -6.1 -8.1 -9.8 -9.1 -9.0 -8.1 -8.6 -3.9 -0.4 1.4 0.3 0.8 4.9 4.2 900mb Dewpt(C): -9.1 -8.8 -11.6 -17.0 -23.8 -28.2 -29.4 -14.9 -3.9 -0.5 1.2 0.3 0.8 4.7 3.9 900mb RH (%): 81 81 76 56 30 20 17 60 100 99 98 100 100 98 98 900mb Dir: 304 300 324 337 339 349 218 187 184 177 224 214 181 185 256 900mb Speed(kt): 11 16 21 15 17 7 3 11 19 30 15 9 26 45 35 850mb GPH (m): 1416 1431 1445 1467 1484 1508 1510 1503 1507 1494 1484 1478 1438 1359 1334 850mb Temp (C): -7.6 -7.9 -8.4 -8.1 -7.6 -7.9 -6.5 -6.6 -2.7 0.8 3.3 3.3 2.8 6.1 2.8 850mb Dewpt(C): -11.3 -11.7 -18.1 -24.1 -29.3 -36.1 -33.3 -8.4 -2.7 0.8 2.5 3.2 2.6 6.0 1.2 850mb RH (%): 75 75 46 27 16 9 10 87 100 100 95 99 99 99 90 850mb Dir: 291 288 313 298 310 307 237 226 229 215 252 241 212 207 259 850mb Speed(kt): 16 22 25 20 23 11 11 19 31 44 25 22 38 65 44 800mb GPH (m): 1886 1901 1917 1938 1956 1979 1983 1978 1986 1979 1975 1968 1926 1856 1822 800mb Temp (C): -8.8 -9.2 -6.4 -7.7 -7.1 -6.9 -5.9 -5.6 -3.8 -1.0 1.5 0.8 -0.2 5.0 -0.8 800mb Dewpt(C): -16.0 -12.8 -25.0 -28.9 -37.0 -42.4 -24.3 -5.8 -3.8 -1.0 0.7 0.8 -0.2 5.0 -2.7 800mb RH (%): 56 75 22 17 8 4 22 98 100 100 94 100 100 100 87 800mb Dir: 294 280 292 288 297 292 250 244 240 234 253 246 215 220 249 800mb Speed(kt): 23 31 38 33 33 20 20 29 38 45 30 28 41 75 43 750mb GPH (m): 2388 2400 2420 2438 2457 2482 2487 2484 2497 2493 2492 2484 2442 2381 2334 750mb Temp (C): -7.1 -9.5 -7.8 -9.4 -8.0 -7.5 -7.6 -6.0 -3.6 -3.0 -1.3 -1.8 -2.1 2.3 -4.2 750mb Dewpt(C): -20.7 -14.9 -29.5 -31.9 -40.5 -38.2 -18.9 -6.0 -3.6 -3.0 -3.0 -2.9 -2.1 2.3 -6.5 750mb RH (%): 33 65 16 15 6 7 40 100 100 100 88 92 100 100 84 750mb Dir: 288 281 284 283 296 283 258 249 247 244 252 247 219 229 240 750mb Speed(kt): 41 43 46 43 38 28 28 36 39 42 34 30 42 75 43 700mb GPH (m): 2923 2930 2952 2968 2992 3017 3021 3023 3040 3037 3040 3031 2988 2936 2874 700mb Temp (C): -10.0 -11.6 -11.2 -12.0 -8.5 -9.0 -9.8 -8.2 -6.3 -5.5 -3.8 -3.9 -4.7 -0.8 -8.1 700mb Dewpt(C): -20.1 -20.5 -30.7 -33.7 -38.9 -32.6 -17.8 -8.2 -6.7 -5.7 -7.9 -8.4 -5.1 -0.8 -12.3 700mb RH (%): 44 48 19 15 7 13 52 100 97 98 73 71 97 100 72 700mb Dir: 281 281 279 281 290 276 260 257 256 249 253 242 224 233 241 700mb Speed(kt): 52 50 52 51 47 37 35 40 36 41 35 33 46 71 49 You're all snow through 48 definitely, and you're probably eeking snow out of 54 as well, depending on how thick the warm nose at 850mb actually is. From 60-78 you're getting ZR, then plain rain. Verbatim on the NAM, I see 2-3" of wet snow, followed by 0.20" of ZR/IP/mess, then about 1" of plain rain. Not my idea of a good time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Sounds like watches are in order with the afternoon package especially north and west of 95 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 NAM for the NEPA folk...KAVP soundings. Forecast Hours: 0hr 6hr 12hr 18hr 24hr 30hr 36hr 42hr 48hr 54hr 60hr 66hr 72hr 78hr 84hr Sfc Prs(mb): 981.6 984.0 986.7 990.6 992.6 994.7 993.9 992.6 991.2 988.6 986.9 985.6 978.5 969.1 967.3 Mean SLP (mb): 1018.9 1020.9 1024.0 1028.6 1031.2 1032.9 1032.0 1030.8 1029.2 1026.1 1024.3 1023.1 1015.6 1005.4 1003.7 2m agl Tmp (F): 21.0 29.5 21.9 15.3 8.9 20.1 17.7 18.4 18.3 24.0 24.0 22.8 23.6 28.0 29.3 2m agl Dewpt(F): 20.2 25.3 16.7 10.0 4.4 14.4 15.2 16.1 16.0 21.9 22.2 21.0 21.7 26.6 28.2 2m agl RH (%): 97 84 80 79 82 78 90 90 91 91 93 93 92 95 96 10m agl Dir: 276 274 316 318 330 1 72 120 103 95 74 105 106 93 249 10m agl Spd(kt): 3 8 9 7 6 4 3 5 6 6 6 5 12 7 5 6hr Precip (in): 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.08 0.14 0.06 0.04 0.22 0.63 0.02 AccumPrecip(in): 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.09 0.23 0.29 0.33 0.54 1.18 1.20 H85 temps top 0*C at hr60. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest stormchaser Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Sounds like watches are in order with the afternoon package especially north and west of 95 I would think its still too early in the game for this yet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 I am getting pretty concerned about a rare freezing rain event in the city from this storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Down here in phl area. The NAM has better front end snow compared to previous runs and still warms it enough to avoid a big ice storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 I pretty much guarantee that is exactly what will happen. thing to watch is if the high continues to strengthen in southeast canada and doesn't try to escape east - then thats a sign the low will try and redevelop and take the path of least resistance - plus climatology and the current set up favors this .... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Hmmm....Trending colder as we approach the event....sound familiar?? As is usual, much will depend on what happens with the HP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 I am getting pretty concerned about a rare freezing rain event in the city from this storm. If the track shown ultimately happens I think they will go to rain since there could be southerly surface winds...I'd me more wary of either very big snows Tuesday or possibly significant freezing rain tuesday night if the initial WAA wave lasts a long time, long enough for the mid layers to really warm enough for ZR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tiburon Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 If the high escapes to the east, that initiates a maritime flow off the Atlantic--that's game over for everyone anywhere NEAR the cities. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Please provide a link for this. Thanks. NCEP experimental has 3 hour increments. This is what's fallen thru hour 51. .25"-.50" from NYC on west... http://mag.ncep.noaa..._precip_p12.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chrisNJ Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 ABE's sounding is right around 32 degrees toward the end of heavier portion of the 2nd event. It typically runs warm, so my guess is a "wicked" ice storm for the Lehigh Valley. Nothing like adding 3-5 inches Tuesday on top of the existing snowpack, then 0.5" of ice to encrust everything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Last night was supposed to have it. But I am not even sure they got planes there. They were not sure they would have planes available. Oh i fully agree. Just looking at this objectively that's all. By the way werent the 12z runs today supposed to have recon data in them does anyone remember??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 If the track shown ultimately happens I think they will go to rain since there could be southerly surface winds...I'd me more wary of either very big snows Tuesday or possibly significant freezing rain tuesday night if the initial WAA wave lasts a long time, long enough for the mid layers to really warm enough for ZR. If the high escapes to the east then I agree but I am not sure that happens yet. We could be looking at an ageostropic north wind down the hudson which is what we saw in the sleet storm of 07. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tiburon Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Down here in phl area. The NAM has better front end snow compared to previous runs and still warms it enough to avoid a big ice storm Soundings for Lancaster, PA from 12Z NAM: Forecast Hours: 0hr 6hr 12hr 18hr 24hr 30hr 36hr 42hr 48hr 54hr 60hr 66hr 72hr 78hr 84hr Sfc Prs(mb): 1003.9 1006.4 1008.6 1012.7 1014.5 1016.3 1014.9 1013.2 1011.6 1008.6 1007.1 1006.3 997.2 988.5 989.7 Mean SLP (mb): 1019.5 1022.2 1024.2 1028.6 1030.8 1032.6 1030.9 1029.4 1027.7 1024.7 1023.0 1022.3 1012.8 1003.7 1005.1 2m agl Tmp (F): 20.7 32.3 26.0 18.8 14.6 24.4 22.9 23.6 23.8 28.7 28.6 27.2 30.2 33.8 33.7 2m agl Dewpt(F): 20.0 28.4 21.7 13.9 9.9 17.6 20.5 22.0 22.1 26.9 27.8 26.2 29.0 33.5 32.1 2m agl RH (%): 97 85 83 81 81 75 90 94 93 93 97 96 95 99 94 10m agl Dir: 294 285 317 343 350 46 87 91 82 74 71 101 104 55 287 10m agl Spd(kt): 3 8 6 6 5 5 4 7 7 5 5 7 13 2 12 6hr Precip (in): 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.05 0.17 0.19 0.01 0.01 0.24 0.62 0.03 AccumPrecip(in): 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.05 0.22 0.42 0.43 0.44 0.68 1.30 1.32 Sfc CAPE (J/kg): 0.0 9.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Sfc CINH (J/kg): 0.0 -0.7 -1.3 -0.6 -0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 -1.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 -1.0 -0.9 0.0 0-3km Hel(J/kg): 170.9 151.2 107.9 210.2 116.1 154.1 348.0 525.2 670.8 459.6 237.7 265.0 935.6 378.6 180.2 Precip H20 (in): 0.33 0.34 0.26 0.16 0.14 0.20 0.42 0.54 0.66 0.72 0.69 0.72 0.95 0.70 0.39 Lifted Index(C): 15.2 13.8 15.6 16.7 19.5 19.7 15.0 11.8 8.1 5.0 4.0 5.5 7.5 2.9 14.0 700mb VV(-ub/s): -1.0 -2.4 -0.1 -2.2 0.2 1.6 2.0 2.8 6.1 -0.5 2.1 -0.1 5.7 3.2 2.1 Thk1000-500mb(m)5325.5 5298.6 5312.6 5305.8 5319.9 5324.3 5344.3 5360.1 5391.0 5418.5 5447.8 5439.0 5486.3 5480.3 5358.3 Thk1000-850mb(m)1279.0 1279.3 1272.4 1263.6 1260.6 1262.4 1266.2 1270.4 1285.0 1299.0 1305.9 1300.8 1311.3 1325.5 1298.5 Thk850-700mb(m):1518.3 1511.4 1518.4 1514.4 1520.9 1517.9 1524.4 1534.4 1544.5 1552.1 1558.2 1553.0 1558.9 1565.7 1512.9 SWEAT Index: 124.9 144.4 134.9 109.6 88.7 54.8 215.5 222.0 223.0 218.2 187.9 168.3 365.0 265.5 180.3 Total Totals Idx 29.2 32.6 23.7 22.3 12.1 11.6 30.2 34.6 41.2 45.0 47.8 44.7 39.3 47.1 30.8 Frz Hgt(ft amsl) 404 467 404 404 404 404 404 404 404 404 404 404 404 7730 2035 0WetBlbHgt(amsl) -1000 -1000 -1000 -1000 -1000 -1000 -1000 -1000 -1000 7188 7110 6969 7345 7100 1601 Equil Prs (mb): 1004 1006 1009 1013 1014 1016 1015 1013 1012 1009 1007 1006 997 988 990 Equil Hgt(amsl): 404 404 404 404 404 404 404 404 404 404 404 404 404 404 404 Hail Size(in): 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Conv Wind Gust: 13.8 14.7 13.9 11.6 8.7 7.4 9.6 10.6 10.8 44.1 46.8 49.9 53.8 48.0 37.5 Showalter Index: 16.0 15.3 17.5 17.4 19.8 20.2 16.2 14.0 9.3 5.9 3.4 5.0 7.0 2.8 15.7 Cap Strength(C):-999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 14.4 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 Storm Dir (deg): 313 313 315 324 321 295 287 280 271 277 280 251 255 261 280 Storm Spd (kts): 33 36 33 27 21 17 22 25 25 24 19 23 41 42 44 2m HeatIndex(F): 21 32 26 19 15 24 23 24 24 29 29 27 30 34 34 2m WindChill(F): 21 25 18 10 6 17 16 14 15 22 23 19 19 34 24 1000mb GPH (m): 152 175 190 221 235 252 240 228 216 194 181 174 102 29 40 950mb GPH (m): 558 583 596 621 631 651 640 629 618 600 587 579 510 444 452 950mb Temp (C): -2.8 -3.6 -5.1 -8.6 -10.2 -9.4 -8.6 -7.3 -5.6 -2.5 -3.0 -4.4 -2.0 2.3 0.7 950mb Dewpt(C): -5.3 -6.0 -8.4 -12.7 -17.4 -15.2 -11.7 -8.3 -6.0 -2.5 -3.0 -4.4 -2.0 2.3 -0.4 950mb RH (%): 83 83 78 73 56 63 78 92 97 100 100 100 100 100 92 950mb Dir: 323 298 328 350 23 74 113 126 121 146 121 130 124 203 279 950mb Speed(kt): 12 17 19 19 15 7 11 19 24 15 9 17 28 15 29 900mb GPH (m): 984 1008 1017 1038 1048 1069 1059 1051 1045 1032 1020 1010 945 884 885 900mb Temp (C): -6.0 -6.2 -8.2 -9.2 -7.6 -8.1 -7.6 -6.6 -1.9 0.7 3.2 2.1 4.6 6.2 -1.2 900mb Dewpt(C): -6.6 -9.5 -11.9 -18.0 -23.1 -25.3 -14.9 -6.6 -1.9 0.7 2.5 1.5 4.6 6.0 -3.0 900mb RH (%): 95 77 75 49 28 24 56 100 100 100 96 95 100 98 87 900mb Dir: 307 302 328 337 356 119 172 188 186 210 243 203 175 224 276 900mb Speed(kt): 16 22 22 17 9 5 12 24 30 28 14 17 42 44 44 850mb GPH (m): 1431 1454 1462 1485 1496 1514 1506 1499 1501 1492 1486 1475 1413 1354 1339 850mb Temp (C): -6.1 -6.8 -4.9 -4.7 -4.8 -5.5 -4.9 -4.8 -1.3 1.8 4.4 4.3 5.2 6.5 -4.1 850mb Dewpt(C): -14.6 -10.7 -17.6 -20.2 -27.3 -27.4 -8.5 -4.8 -1.4 1.7 3.6 3.4 5.2 5.1 -6.5 850mb RH (%): 51 74 37 29 16 16 76 100 99 99 94 94 100 90 84 850mb Dir: 283 289 309 294 310 249 216 220 220 235 245 222 195 241 264 850mb Speed(kt): 23 28 28 23 16 4 19 28 35 32 22 28 53 54 43 800mb GPH (m): 1906 1928 1940 1961 1973 1990 1984 1979 1985 1982 1978 1967 1906 1850 1815 800mb Temp (C): -4.7 -6.4 -4.5 -5.4 -4.6 -5.0 -4.0 -2.1 -0.7 1.2 1.8 1.2 1.9 3.4 -6.2 800mb Dewpt(C): -20.8 -10.0 -17.0 -23.1 -32.6 -22.7 -5.1 -2.1 -0.7 1.1 0.6 0.8 1.9 1.7 -9.0 800mb RH (%): 28 76 37 24 10 24 92 100 100 100 92 97 100 88 81 800mb Dir: 290 288 287 287 292 261 237 238 231 245 244 228 204 247 246 800mb Speed(kt): 34 40 35 31 23 14 25 34 34 33 28 29 56 52 43 750mb GPH (m): 2413 2432 2446 2465 2479 2496 2492 2491 2500 2499 2496 2483 2423 2370 2318 750mb Temp (C): -6.0 -7.2 -6.7 -7.4 -5.7 -6.5 -5.7 -3.6 -2.1 -1.6 -0.7 -2.1 -1.0 -0.1 -8.2 750mb Dewpt(C): -16.8 -13.5 -19.6 -28.0 -37.0 -19.7 -6.3 -3.9 -2.1 -1.7 -3.7 -2.6 -1.0 -3.3 -12.9 750mb RH (%): 42 61 35 18 7 35 95 98 100 99 80 97 100 79 69 750mb Dir: 286 287 279 285 284 260 248 252 244 248 245 231 211 242 237 750mb Speed(kt): 45 47 40 36 26 23 32 34 33 36 29 30 60 48 49 700mb GPH (m): 2949 2966 2981 2999 3017 3032 3030 3033 3045 3045 3045 3028 2972 2920 2852 700mb Temp (C): -9.1 -10.7 -9.8 -9.6 -7.6 -8.3 -8.1 -6.7 -5.2 -5.0 -3.2 -4.9 -3.2 -2.4 -9.5 700mb Dewpt(C): -14.8 -17.9 -21.8 -32.4 -36.6 -22.0 -11.5 -7.4 -5.5 -6.1 -8.3 -7.2 -3.4 -8.6 -17.5 700mb RH (%): 64 56 37 14 8 33 77 95 98 92 68 84 99 62 53 700mb Dir: 281 284 275 287 278 258 254 261 250 250 249 229 222 229 240 700mb Speed(kt): 52 53 47 42 29 29 37 35 33 38 29 32 66 51 57 Pretty much similar to the way NYC unfolds, according to the NAM, 2-3" snow up front, some light ZR/IP, then rain with the primary. 1.32" QPF through 84, 0.22" QPF as snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.