brooklynwx99
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Everything posted by brooklynwx99
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MJO caught got in 3-4-5 but it'll progress into more favorable phases over the next couple of weeks
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the thing is that the passes through warmer phases are weaker and quicker than they are during Ninas. but they are still going to happen sometimes, especially early in the year
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yes, generally. the EPS shows this progression back into 7-8-1 well a couple intrusions into 4-5-6 are going to happen early on in the year before the Nino is truly established. this intrusion was actually well forecast... models saw it around a week ago
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I would still be encouraged seeing significant -NAO blocking this early, as well as a much weaker than average SPV. these are known to help lead to blocking later in the winter, especially in -QBO/Nino regimes. the Pacific is usually the issue in El Nino Decembers
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this kind of pattern may cut it in like mid Jan through Feb, but it's too early to compensate for a less than ideal Pacific luckily, it really doesn't snow much before the 15-20th anywhere near the coast, so it's not like we're really missing out on much
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that is true, but they are really all that we have
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this is likely the case the further we go into winter
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that’s just not true
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why are we comparing this year to the last few years when we have a strong Nino? the last few years we have had a La Nina this is what baffles me. we have completely different tropical forcing in play. why are we using the same reasoning as we did for the last several years? it's just glorified persistence forecasting, which ends up wrong at some point
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that literally just happened last winter. one winter isn't proof that -NAO don't work anymore. last winter just sucked, it happens. the confirmation bias has been through the roof
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like i think people are literally just saying shit just to say it and it's getting frustrating. you cannot tell me that those patterns that have produced some of NYC's largest storms ever would probably get dragged over the coals today because of factors that aren't even detrimental. it has gotten ridiculous
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this was also the pattern a week before the 2021 blizzard. if we got this pattern this year we'd just hear about how useless the massive -NAO block would be since there's a Nina background state SE ridge and a horrible Pacific pattern. no way we could get a historic storm here
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SE ridges pop ahead of developing storm systems, and we have also had a blizzard with a trough in the SW US. I mean, this was the pattern a week before the largest snowstorm JFK ever got. I'm sure people would be trashing the Pacific pattern here too given the GoAK low and the ridge axis too far east over the Plains
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it is Nov 26th and already unbearable. hate to see it literally nothing has changed. I posted about the 5th and onward, and the pattern still becomes favorable after the 5th. what is the argument here for a "pushback" or "wasted blocking?" models have been incredibly consistent
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why are we talking about a Nina background state during a borderline super Nino? I swear, it doesn't snow last year and people are just saying random shit at this point. there is no such thing as a "Nina background state"
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my point was that this isn't a SE ridge. they're height rises out ahead of a developing storm system. two different things
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that isn't a SE ridge. that was just ensemble disagreement on how strong the system would get. stronger solutions verified, and there are height rises ahead of the system over the NE. that doesn't have much to do with a lingering SE ridge tendency or anything
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yeah the Pacific improves pretty dramatically once after the 5th
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the Pacific really is night and day from last year. great to see
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still a very nice look once into early-mid month. strong -NAO, ridging showing up into AK, and a deep E US trough. not the coldest, as has been discussed, but this can certainly get it done
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no, i could never haha the boards are enough for me
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i know this is a LR OP run, but notice how the GoA low continually forces a WC ridge. the confluence over the east allows for a potent coastal. the Pacific pattern is a complete departure from the last few years and is classic Nino
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i know this is a LR OP run, but notice how the GoA low continually forces a WC ridge. the confluence over the east allows for a potent coastal. the Pacific pattern is a complete departure from the last few years and is classic Nino
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you do have PTSD most likely. luckily the Nina paradigm is over. rejoice!
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what exactly else would you like to use? the upcoming pattern looks great. if it was warm, people would have no question about it being right. it’s a silly argument the blocking develops inside day 5. the features that force this pattern are moving into the short range
