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brooklynwx99

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Everything posted by brooklynwx99

  1. brooklynwx99
    new UKMET is a coastal bomb
  2. brooklynwx99
    CMC is a space cadet right now. it’s still trending towards the other models and has been doing so for two model cycles now i think it represents the western end of the envelope
  3. brooklynwx99
    also, way out there, but this is a good overrunning setup on the GEFS. departing Arctic air, -EPO, TPV nearby, and a potent southern stream vort i can see an overrunning event as the pattern totally decays. although there is a 500mb zonal ridge, surface cold air can easily remain
  4. brooklynwx99
    to be honest, a Niña after a strong Nino might actually be pretty interesting. but no reason in entertaining that until we pass the spring predictability barrier anyway
  5. brooklynwx99
    EPS is more consolidated. i would expect the ECMWF to come back NW tonight
  6. brooklynwx99
    for reference, that 09 east of Georgia is the OP. massive weak/southern outlier
  7. brooklynwx99
    that 09 east of Georgia is the OP. just for reference
  8. brooklynwx99
    i'd much rather pull this thing NW than SE at this range, that's for certain
  9. brooklynwx99
    it literally happens all the time. nobody here cares about what happens in Gary, Indiana
  10. brooklynwx99
    i think it ends up a bit too disorganized in the end. odd, looked promising. not a big deal, though, it's one OP run
  11. brooklynwx99
    run should be good. initial vort is stronger, ridge out west is taller. should dig more, if nothing else
  12. brooklynwx99
    no changes
  13. brooklynwx99
    looking under the hood, UKMET actually increased confluence pretty dramatically and the trough orientation is more favorable this run
  14. brooklynwx99
    much better with the confluence and trough orientation
  15. brooklynwx99
    UKMET pretty drastically increased confluence with a more favorable orientation of the trough. good move
  16. brooklynwx99
    GEFS also increased confluence
  17. brooklynwx99
    the CMC has been lost, though. it's completely changed the trough orientation over the last couple of days. seems like everything is moving towards the ECMWF
  18. brooklynwx99
    more than modest. this is a SECS verbatim
  19. brooklynwx99
    this run is going to be awesome. better trough orientation over the Rockies along with more confluence what a gorgeous look we have now
  20. brooklynwx99
    confluence is much stronger this run. big shift towards the ECMWF
  21. brooklynwx99
    that kind of setup is an actual possibility with a -EPO/+PNA, undercutting SW trough, and displaced TPV, but I digress
  22. brooklynwx99
    pretty sure the control is just a lower-resolution version of the OP that they run the ensemble off of
  23. brooklynwx99
    the control would be a MECS lmao. northern stream outruns the main S/W and provides confluence
  24. brooklynwx99
    EPS is actually more amplified with the vort. wonder if some of those lows develop later and bring precip in
  25. brooklynwx99
    +PNA, -NAO, and confluence all got better on this run
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