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brooklynwx99

Meteorologist
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Everything posted by brooklynwx99

  1. brooklynwx99
    I don't like the pattern, but in the same way you can get skunked in a great pattern, you can also cash in during a crappy one
  2. brooklynwx99
    i'm still skeptical about Sunday given the overall pattern and the marginal temps, but it's a very dynamic setup with a potential phase that would bring in Arctic air. crazier things have happened, and it's worth keeping an eye on
  3. brooklynwx99
    if the ECMWF is correct and you have a strengthening closed low S of LI and cold air rushing in due to a partial phase, it'll snow here just need to see if it has the right idea
  4. brooklynwx99
    nuke
  5. brooklynwx99
    WOW
  6. brooklynwx99
    it's definitely more consolidated. kinda looks like the CMC... GFS is on its own
  7. brooklynwx99
    to be fair, there's been a shocking lack of interest in a potential snow event for the metro (however little it may be), which is pretty disheartening there's literally a dude from Philly doing PBP lmao
  8. brooklynwx99
    yes, the antecedent airmass is terrible, which is why a slower storm is better. colder air would rush in from the northern stream
  9. brooklynwx99
    ECMWF continues slowing the vort down and amping it up... better PNA ridge initially is likely the culprit slower is better as the northern stream has a better chance to catch up
  10. brooklynwx99
    the PNA is also initially stronger, so the shortwave is a bit slower and more amped. we want slower here since it allows for more interaction with the energy diving through the Lakes as well as having the benefit of a slightly colder airmass
  11. brooklynwx99
    i don't think it will either, I just think that if it does, it would be a good thing rather than a bad thing. it likely continues progressing into either the western Pacific or the Indian Ocean
  12. brooklynwx99
    it’s fine if the MJO craps out and the wave dies. then you just get typical Nino forcing and a strong Aleutian low. the MJO isn’t the only thing that forces patterns
  13. brooklynwx99
    yeah, vort is stronger / slower and there are way more tucked in lows. it's a pretty big shift from the EPS at this range. usually it's slow to move
  14. brooklynwx99
    no, i seem to be living in your head. at least ask me to pay rent
  15. brooklynwx99
    i love that ensembles are confirming the weeklies. that pattern evolution makes sense and it seems like all ensembles are getting there we’ll see more Greenland blocking develop as the N ATL trough intensifies
  16. brooklynwx99
    yes, likely between the 10th and 15th if i had to take a guess
  17. brooklynwx99
    the EPS and other ENS are following the weeklies to a T. get the STJ in the west to connect with the N Atl trough and all of a sudden, you’re in a very good pattern
  18. brooklynwx99
    nice to see the EPS and all other ENS following the weeklies nearly verbatim. you’re a few days from slipping the STJ under the Canadian block and connecting it to the N Atl trough and you’re in a great pattern very quickly. that evolution also encourages a -NAO via wave breaking as well
  19. brooklynwx99
    you end up here on the OP... you're very quickly moving to a good to great pattern here. lots is in motion
  20. brooklynwx99
    from a perspective of providing actionable information to clients, which is what i do, “warm and snowy” will make their heads explode. that is tough to convey clearly for laymen
  21. brooklynwx99
    i’ll put it this way. if 8/10 years are AN, then what is really “normal” at that point? when does a new one get defined?
  22. brooklynwx99
    that’s why i can’t give him too many props. something about blind squirrels
  23. brooklynwx99
    when wouldn’t you, then? weak ENSO? neutral winters? tough to say
  24. brooklynwx99
    being correct and being able to provide an accurate picture of how the winter may play out are two different things. Feb could easily be AN from the first week and drop 30” in two weeks in the MA. how would one reconcile that in a forecast?
  25. brooklynwx99
    who knows. going AN every year does not provide much value, though
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