brooklynwx99

BPD ass forum

all ensembles are in near lock step with both each other and the weeklies. only a few days from the promised land connecting the two troughs

yes, the advertised pattern plays better for like HFD south. once into mid-Feb, everyone can get in on the action… NYC and MA are favored, but 2003 and 1983 got into BOS

if that Canadian block is far enough north to let something underneath, yes

jesus christ

the first week of Feb is officially interesting if that block gets far enough north and energy undercuts it

i don’t think anyone is arguing that, but there’s no reason why that pattern wouldn’t occur. can you come up with an actual reason on modeling right now for that to go up in flames? an actual reason, not just “if everything single thing possible goes wrong, the rest of the winter will suck.” that doesn’t count

bringing the absolutely stale, jaded taste of the NYC subforum to SNE. what a treat!

no, it rolls over. the -NAO comes mid month after the trough gets booted out of the SW

wonder if you can get a bowling ball to slip underneath. potent omega block

really strong omega block showing up on the GEFS. wonder if you can get a bowling ball to slip underneath... would probably favor the MA but still intriguing regardless, wouldn't be much of a torch here with flow coming out of northern Canada

this is what happens if that mid-week clipper bombs out, btw if it wraps up, you can slip a vort under the block with a 50/50 in place

talk about wave breaking. god damn

exactly. this isn't a time when all three ensembles look totally different at D10-15 and there's little to no ENSO influence... there's a good bit higher confidence than normal

i'm just basing it off of the general pattern progression... the one on the weeklies makes sense you retract the Pacific jet and it leads to ridging over the WC and AK via an Aleutian Low. there's excess momentum leading to a trough over the SW US. that trough is expelled via the -EPO forming... that trough gets replaced by a +PNA the SW US trough connects with the N Atl trough that's already present... this then leads to a E US trough as well as wave breaking that assists the development of a -NAO. at that point, you are left with the pattern on the weeklies are the weeklies correct? who knows, they could absolutely be wrong. I can tell you that the progression they're showing makes a lot of sense, though

usually when you have stable blocking patterns, you need something to break them. that's where the big storm comes in I'm still cautious given how the last couple of winters have gone, but given: tremendous agreement on all three ENS suites for the transitionary period Feb 5-10 coinciding with a weakening Pacific jet ENS matching up with extended guidance nearly perfectly at the end of their runs the transition moving forward in time general Nino climo to force a +PNA/-AO in February I'm pretty optimistic. this could be the best period many in the MA and NYC have had in quite some time. just want to give it another week to get those changes within a more meaningful timeframe

that split flow is what we were missing from the mid-Jan pattern. you're gonna get blocking a few days after this look as well

I think you have Feb 15 - Mar 10. I find it hard to believe that we remain cold and stormy after that point, but if blocking develops, which looks likely, I can easily see the more favorable pattern continuing into the first 10 days of March. the same happened in 1958

seems a bit better than workable

18z ECMWF is very similar to 12z… nothing like the GFS still

and to think people are punting the rest of the winter. fucking insane gotta suck to be that jaded

I don't see anything arguing against a flip to favorable to very favorable pattern in mid-Feb. ENS have continued to move forward in time and are in uncanny agreement. this look makes sense given that the Pacific jet will retract amidst a MJO progression into the Western Pacific and eventually the IO Weeklies have looked very good for a while now, and the signal is increasing. all three ensembles are very similar to them at the end of their runs, as well... those looks at the end of the ensembles roll out into this: it makes sense how you get to that point... the developing Aleutian Low forces a -EPO/+PNA that shoves the SW US trough east and it connects with the N ATL trough. this leads to wave breaking that strengthens -NAO blocking. it could be incorrect, but given that all ensembles are in such good agreement, the signal continues to move forward and strengthen in time, and it makes intuitive sense, I think that cards are stacking more favorably than unfavorably from like Feb 15 - Mar 10

seems like mid-Feb into early March could be very, very fun. not even a single tick backwards, keeps moving forward in time

I don't like the pattern, but in the same way you can get skunked in a great pattern, you can also cash in during a crappy one

i'm still skeptical about Sunday given the overall pattern and the marginal temps, but it's a very dynamic setup with a potential phase that would bring in Arctic air. crazier things have happened, and it's worth keeping an eye on