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brooklynwx99

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Everything posted by brooklynwx99

  1. brooklynwx99
    here’s a good example of why the GEFS having a temporary “Pacific onslaught” isn’t really bad at all. the same thing happened in 2016. there was a surge eastward of the aleutian trough, leading to even some ridging into the C US and Great Lakes. a wave slipped underneath, the trough retrogrades, leading to a transient +PNA and boom
  2. brooklynwx99
    he is right. this is indeed a nice pattern change
  3. brooklynwx99
    you can see the wave this far out, kinda nuts. trough amps up as the block rots
  4. brooklynwx99
    i generally agree, but this progression has such high confidence in modeling that you’re able to identify windows where potential is elevated. i’d say somewhere around the 21-25th holds the greatest potential for a larger event
  5. brooklynwx99
    my guess is that you get a vigorous wave coming onshore around the 20th, the Aleutian low retrogrades, spiking the PNA, and that's how you get clobbered. everything is in place there, TPV is perfectly elongated
  6. brooklynwx99
    and the MA had a 10" week and change, I know nobody cares about that here, but still
  7. brooklynwx99
    my guess is that you get a vigorous wave coming onshore around the 20th, the Aleutian low retrogrades, spiking the PNA, and that's how you get clobbered. everything is in place there, TPV is perfectly elongated
  8. brooklynwx99
    it's not bad at all. confluence is building in, Canada is pretty blocked up, and the PNA is rising quickly
  9. brooklynwx99
    uhhhhhhhhhh
  10. brooklynwx99
    March is 10 times more of a winter month for most than December. unless you're far inland or pretty decently north
  11. brooklynwx99
    I agree that once we do get a storm, there is likely a transient Rockies ridge that forms from the trough in the GoA
  12. brooklynwx99
    this is for the 13th... I would expect a rainer at that time
  13. brooklynwx99
    now this is more like it
  14. brooklynwx99
    we’re in a good spot. i’d be more nervous up towards Boston
  15. brooklynwx99
    and it’s more than cold enough, you don’t need vodka cold for big snow. if it’s too cold, i’m sure i’d hear people here complaining a lack of moisture or something lmao there is ALWAYS something to criticize with patterns, but it’s worth illustrating potential as well
  16. brooklynwx99
    the stretched TPV migrating to the 50/50 region alongside a retrograding and decaying -NAO is a signal for a large storm, especially when you have a potent STJ involved. i don’t think that’s unreasonable at all
  17. brooklynwx99
    we’ve had a ton of Ninas since 2018 and this is a blocky Nino pattern. the composites from those years won’t really hold water here
  18. brooklynwx99
    we should see IO forcing for a while. nice
  19. brooklynwx99
    RMM plots are FINALLY taking the MJO into 8 and 1. hovmollers have shown this progression for a long time, but the RMM plots have had a difficult time of it
  20. brooklynwx99
    that trough near Baja is split flow... allows for large waves to enter the flow and increases phasing opportunities. there really aren't any ways to criticize this pattern. it's one thing if it happens (much higher confidence than normal that it does), but that is pretty obviously a very good configuration
  21. brooklynwx99
    but why would it suck? nothing is pointing in that direction, even climo by itself would lead to a good Pacific pattern
  22. brooklynwx99
    I think that this pattern allows for a true high-end event later in the month, generally from a potent southern stream vort traveling underneath the vort and phasing, but yeah, you can get clipper or Miller Bs from the AK ridge. I would say that this probably favors SNE rather than NNE for sure, as there can be some suppression depending on how strong the blocking and associated 50/50 ULL get. I'd feel a lot better in Danbury than Nashua
  23. brooklynwx99
    yeah, I was strongly considering that! lmao it seems like we have more confidence now, though. the change is going to occur, just a matter of how long it lasts and how much the pattern actually produces
  24. brooklynwx99
    just a gorgeous evolution... very high confidence for a semi permanent 50/50 ULL, west based blocking, and a stream of waves off the Pacific undercutting the AK ridge. all three ensembles share this same progression as well, there is great agreement there too i'm kinda wondering if that trough moving eastward in the Pacific is the storm, or if we just get a lobe from said trough
  25. brooklynwx99
    just a gorgeous evolution... very high confidence for a semi permanent 50/50 ULL, west based blocking, and a stream of waves off the Pacific undercutting the AK ridge. all three ensembles share this same progression as well, there is great agreement there too i'm kinda wondering if that trough moving eastward in the Pacific is the storm, or if we just get a lobe from said trough\
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