brooklynwx99

usually when you have stable blocking patterns, you need something to break them. that's where the big storm comes in I'm still cautious given how the last couple of winters have gone, but given: tremendous agreement on all three ENS suites for the transitionary period Feb 5-10 coinciding with a weakening Pacific jet ENS matching up with extended guidance nearly perfectly at the end of their runs the transition moving forward in time general Nino climo to force a +PNA/-AO in February I'm pretty optimistic. this could be the best period many in the MA and NYC have had in quite some time. just want to give it another week to get those changes within a more meaningful timeframe

that split flow is what we were missing from the mid-Jan pattern. you're gonna get blocking a few days after this look as well

I think you have Feb 15 - Mar 10. I find it hard to believe that we remain cold and stormy after that point, but if blocking develops, which looks likely, I can easily see the more favorable pattern continuing into the first 10 days of March. the same happened in 1958

seems a bit better than workable

18z ECMWF is very similar to 12z… nothing like the GFS still

and to think people are punting the rest of the winter. fucking insane gotta suck to be that jaded

I don't see anything arguing against a flip to favorable to very favorable pattern in mid-Feb. ENS have continued to move forward in time and are in uncanny agreement. this look makes sense given that the Pacific jet will retract amidst a MJO progression into the Western Pacific and eventually the IO Weeklies have looked very good for a while now, and the signal is increasing. all three ensembles are very similar to them at the end of their runs, as well... those looks at the end of the ensembles roll out into this: it makes sense how you get to that point... the developing Aleutian Low forces a -EPO/+PNA that shoves the SW US trough east and it connects with the N ATL trough. this leads to wave breaking that strengthens -NAO blocking. it could be incorrect, but given that all ensembles are in such good agreement, the signal continues to move forward and strengthen in time, and it makes intuitive sense, I think that cards are stacking more favorably than unfavorably from like Feb 15 - Mar 10

seems like mid-Feb into early March could be very, very fun. not even a single tick backwards, keeps moving forward in time

I don't like the pattern, but in the same way you can get skunked in a great pattern, you can also cash in during a crappy one

i'm still skeptical about Sunday given the overall pattern and the marginal temps, but it's a very dynamic setup with a potential phase that would bring in Arctic air. crazier things have happened, and it's worth keeping an eye on

if the ECMWF is correct and you have a strengthening closed low S of LI and cold air rushing in due to a partial phase, it'll snow here just need to see if it has the right idea

nuke

WOW

it's definitely more consolidated. kinda looks like the CMC... GFS is on its own

to be fair, there's been a shocking lack of interest in a potential snow event for the metro (however little it may be), which is pretty disheartening there's literally a dude from Philly doing PBP lmao

yes, the antecedent airmass is terrible, which is why a slower storm is better. colder air would rush in from the northern stream

ECMWF continues slowing the vort down and amping it up... better PNA ridge initially is likely the culprit slower is better as the northern stream has a better chance to catch up

the PNA is also initially stronger, so the shortwave is a bit slower and more amped. we want slower here since it allows for more interaction with the energy diving through the Lakes as well as having the benefit of a slightly colder airmass

i don't think it will either, I just think that if it does, it would be a good thing rather than a bad thing. it likely continues progressing into either the western Pacific or the Indian Ocean

it’s fine if the MJO craps out and the wave dies. then you just get typical Nino forcing and a strong Aleutian low. the MJO isn’t the only thing that forces patterns

yeah, vort is stronger / slower and there are way more tucked in lows. it's a pretty big shift from the EPS at this range. usually it's slow to move

no, i seem to be living in your head. at least ask me to pay rent

i love that ensembles are confirming the weeklies. that pattern evolution makes sense and it seems like all ensembles are getting there we’ll see more Greenland blocking develop as the N ATL trough intensifies

yes, likely between the 10th and 15th if i had to take a guess

the EPS and other ENS are following the weeklies to a T. get the STJ in the west to connect with the N Atl trough and all of a sudden, you’re in a very good pattern