brooklynwx99

still a pretty nice signal for something on the 11-13th on the EPS... lots of coastal lows on there. probably a decent amount of rainers too, but not concerned with p-type as of now would be thread-the-needle. but whatever

never said it was likely. just something to peek at if you're bored

still a pretty nice signal for something on the 11-13th on the EPS... lots of coastal lows on there. probably a decent amount of rainers too, but not concerned with p-type as of now

idk. there were March 2018 and February 2021 which both forced the canonical -NAO trough response and some pretty prolific snow for much of the E US I wouldn't say that the -NAO linked up with the SE ridge for this past December. the TPV just dumped out west, which is really just a matter of chaos more than the -NAO being suboptimal, and we had the system move too far W. a follow up wave arrived, but it was a day too late and deamplified as the pattern broke down. but I would not say that there is a SE ridge here... the TPV could have easily been displaced farther E, but that was the way the cookie crumbled there give us that pattern 10 times and we would cash in 7 or 8 times... you do run the 20% chance of getting screwed tho I do share some of the same concerns as you, tho. -PDO periods are never very fun, but hopefully the change back to a Nino base state at some point will help cool the W Atl and also lead to more WC ridging

I think this will change as we get tropical forcing to shift during a Nino, hopefully next year. the MJO "wants" to be in 4-5-6 since it positively feeds back onto the tropical forcing and dies once into 7-8-1 due to destructive interference with ENSO. once into a Nino, we'll see the tropical forcing move E, encouraging an Aleutian Low and riding into AK and the WC... Phases 7-8-1 will finally be easier to obtain due to positive feedback once we do get that Nino base state, I would expect much of the cold to dump into the Plains and East rather than West and Rockies. we've had 5 Ninas in the last 7 years lmao something has to give there. I don't think any of this is permanent

psychosis

there was literally no way that anyone could have foreseen that happening. just really shit luck. roll the dice with that pattern 10 times and we'd probably get crushed 7 there was also the potent follow up wave that moved onshore 12-24 hours too late and the ridge collapsed out west. an exercise in futility if we had cashed in on both, we'd be talking about this winter much differently

the reason why Ninas usually suck here is because there is constructive interference with the MJO in phases 4, 5, and 6, which is why it always ends up getting warm in those phases. there is destructive interference in the "good phases" of Zones 7, 8, and 1, which is why the waves almost always collapse before they make it there, and they usually don't do much if they do we just can't expect much from Ninas here. they almost always lead to ridging, and it takes anomalous -NAO blocking to beat it down, as seen in 2010-11 and this December... unfortunately, we couldn't cash in this year Ninos are great because there is actually constructive interference in those "good phases" due to tropical forcing that's farther east... this ties into the Aleutian Low that's normally featured in Nino winters. this leads to cold usually getting dumped into the Plains and E US instead of the Rockies we should see a change once we get a solid Nino, which has a good shot of happening next year, definitely the one after

I think CC really just serves to increase variance. we've been stuck in Ninas pretty much since 2015-16 (5 in the last 7 years), and those will dump troughs into the west and try and force a SE ridge, so it's no surprise that the MA hasn't done well, especially when CC is involved. however, once we flip back to a general Nino base state, which may occur next year, I would expect the same kind of anomalous weather as the West has been seeing. there's no reason to think otherwise looking at the last 6 years from Dec-Feb, we can see all of the anomalous cold has been dumped into the NW US and Plains, which is what Ninas usually do. once we flip back to a good stretch of Ninos, I wouldn't be shocked to see the anomalies flip more to what we saw from 2009-10 to 2014-15, where much of the cold was in the E US with warmth over the WC so, overall, I do think that the band will snap the other way, so to speak, over the next year or two. would make little sense for it not to. it's also a bit of people trying to rationalize a shitty stretch of winters, when in reality, they just happen sometimes, and we've been tremendously spoiled over the last 10-15 years. it's not like the earth has profoundly changed in the last 5-10 years... CC doesn't act that quickly

looks like there's some kind of signal between the 10-12th on the EPS as a ridge spikes out west. obviously, lots of caveats apply given the airmass and bland general pattern, but it's probably the next period of interest for those bored of having nothing to pay attention to

yeah, looks like there's a legit signal showing up here now. would like a better airmass, but whatever at this point

FWIW the ECMWF is pretty gung-ho on a weak to moderate Nino next year

yeah, the PDO can be unfavorable for a long period of time regardless of ENSO... hence the Decadal part of it haha there's really just no way to be sure right now

I personally think the 2018-19 Nino was just a weak, weird one in a Nina base state. it sucked, but I'm not sure much more can be said about it. you're gonna have strange ones in a sample that big... same can be said for 2010-11, which was a strong Nina but was prolific over a good portion of the NE

let's keep it simple here are all the weak-moderate Ninos since 1950: here are all the weak-moderate Ninas in the same timeframe: Ninos far and away present the possibility for a great pattern. let's just root for one next year

lmao now we're getting into whether Ninos lead to +PNAs anymore? come on. the tropical forcing is in a different spot and encourages the Aleutian ridging that we see in Ninas to move farther E. this is also why "good" MJO phases often occur more in Ninos, since they positively feed back... instead of in Ninas where the waves suddenly die once close to Phase 8

you weren't on forums for Feb 2021? that was an insane stretch. NYC got a historic blizzard and 30" in a month

definitely less suppressive than 00z. TPV isn't as far SE and the 250mb jet is more poleward. S/W is a touch less amped, but I think those changes will lead to a net positive this run in terms of avoiding a squashed system

might not do it this run, but the ECMWF is worlds better than the GFS

ECMWF doesn't look like it'll be as suppressed as the GFS with the second wave more amplified wave and more downstream ridging

FWIW the GEPS disagrees with the CMC and actually looks decent with the second wave. let's see what the ECMWF / EPS think in a bit

it's more of a lack of amplification for the third wave. a stronger wave would bring in more of the cold air due to the stronger northerly flow while a weak wave only skirts it and keeps the airmass marginal. it's not an airmass issue

i know that the off runs are supposed to be just as accurate as the 00/12z runs, but I can’t even tell you how many times I see crap like this

the GFS keeps amping the vort up for the second wave… let’s see how it turns out

ha, the stronger NS in the end actually leads to a stronger first wave. more energy just gets sheared out rooting against this evolution, definitely a lower ceiling