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brooklynwx99

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Everything posted by brooklynwx99

  1. brooklynwx99
    it is very difficult to get a snowstorm when the system is completely cut off from the northern stream with a bad antecedent airmass, no matter the time of year. this would be a major storm if there was any kind of cold air in place
  2. brooklynwx99
    I wouldn't say that. it's definitely all or nothing, but there is a threat here
  3. brooklynwx99
    considering the odds of 1"+ have steadily increased since 00z today and the 500mb track looks good, I would say it's a legit trend for Sunday
  4. brooklynwx99
    very nice EPS run. great 500mb track
  5. brooklynwx99
    here is the meteogram for BWI from the EPS… multiple significant snowfalls on there
  6. brooklynwx99
    all told, that was a great EPS run. exactly what i wanted to see
  7. brooklynwx99
    there’s a pretty notable NW lean here. much, much improved from 06z
  8. brooklynwx99
    hmm. this looks quite nice
  9. brooklynwx99
    EPS is much improved from 06z at 500mb
  10. brooklynwx99
    honestly, I'm not too bummed about that given the synoptic improvements from 00z. the EPS will be interesting in half an hour or so if they make the same changes. there were already some pretty nice members at 06z
  11. brooklynwx99
    not going to lie, this looks very good. definitely more amped than the GFS
  12. brooklynwx99
    the ECMWF is even the strongest of the 3 major models with the S/W. the CMC is the weakest... I would imagine that the strength even at 60 makes a big difference. doubt it's as flat as the CMC at this range tho
  13. brooklynwx99
    trust me, everyone should understand that this is a low-probability event due to a lack of blocking and no arctic air and blah blah blah. but it's nice to have something to track regardless... this certainly bears some watching
  14. brooklynwx99
    this is probably the only time I will ever say something like that is possible. but yes, if you do have that strong of a closed low, dynamic cooling does occur. it's not voodoo or anything like this is a sounding from NC where the GFS drops 6-10". that's more than cold enough and that's in the Carolinas. cutoffs do really weird crap so yes, I would absolutely take my chances with a ULL like that. the amped solutions are what everyone should be rooting for, because there is a 0% chance with a washed out POS
  15. brooklynwx99
    that is a possibility, but the UKMET has been known to have absolutely horrific thermals. I would take my chances with a dynamic solution like this
  16. brooklynwx99
    significant uptick in precip across the board. there have got to be some good members in here
  17. brooklynwx99
    well, it turns out that the GEFS is actually improved from 06z. go figure
  18. brooklynwx99
    it generally is, but you'll never see that on a mean. I just like to see the trend towards blocking developing, especially when there are stratospheric impacts over the next week or so... makes it feel a little bit more secure since there'd be a particular reason for it
  19. brooklynwx99
    so much anger
  20. brooklynwx99
    it's not shredded, it's just south. even adjusting for ratios, that's still 6-8" of heavy, wet snow
  21. brooklynwx99
    the AO plot that is being posted is through the 20th or so. any impacts from the SSW, if it occurs, would be felt in March, so the tweet is a bit intellectually dishonest. but that's par for the course there if one is going to use model guidance, it should go out far enough, and the GEFS extended and Weeklies both show a -NAO favored, likely from the SPV disruption/split
  22. brooklynwx99
    yup, less progressive with the trailing wave
  23. brooklynwx99
    i know what you're saying, but this is a super dynamic evolution verbatim and would produce legit deform banding but yes, I agree, this would be tough to pull off. but certainly doable!
  24. brooklynwx99
    i think this would actually stick to everything verbatim. absolutely dumping at 32-33? yup what a wild evolution. I mean, it's certainly weird, but if it keeps showing up I can't totally throw it out. it's like a late March storm
  25. brooklynwx99
    if we're going to go on Twitter to get our ideas, might as well get them from someone who researches this stuff. Lee doesn't honk either, so it's striking seeing him use this kind of verbiage. SSWs are kind of all or nothing when they're that strong, but I'm fine with going for broke at this point
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