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brooklynwx99

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Everything posted by brooklynwx99

  1. brooklynwx99
    interesting thing is that the CanSIPS did increase the strength of the Nino considerably to just barely super, but it doesn't matter since the forcing is so west based. we basically get Modoki forcing with a basin-wide Nino. kinda wild
  2. brooklynwx99
    09-10 redux lmao
  3. brooklynwx99
    the odd thing about this winter is that the forcing may still be displaced west of its normal strong to super Nino position due to the WPAC warm pool, leading to a traditional Aleutian low and +PNA/-EPO with a strong STJ cutting underneath will the forcing actually end up there? not sure, but it makes sense for that warm pool to drag things west. we’ve been seeing it already this summer
  4. brooklynwx99
    also, I have literally said that years like 1982 and 1991 are a possibility, so leave the weenie accusations on the table. i am well aware of those possible outcomes
  5. brooklynwx99
    @snowman19 you breathlessly reposted some tweet that the CanSIPS had a super Nino (first time you’ve posted about it too, wonder why) and now that it looks good for the winter you’re annoyed and weenie-ing every post about it lmao something tells me you were expecting it to look worse
  6. brooklynwx99
    if we’re speaking verbatim, the SE US has a pretty pronounced cold anomaly for Jan-Mar, Feb especially
  7. brooklynwx99
    like i wonder where the storm track is here lmao
  8. brooklynwx99
    with above average precip. it's a sick run and it could actually happen if the forcing occurs there. the C3S superensemble hinted at the same thing in the July update
  9. brooklynwx99
    hi. so the CanSIPS now has a super Nino hovering just at 2C, but it's actually a good thing. the forcing is still over the dateline and is stronger, so the blocking and overall +PNA/-NAO pattern is amplified. it's pretty sick looking years like 1972 and 1991 are still in the cards, but this is very encouraging now that we're into August. that WPAC warm pool might be a big help. could give us Modoki-like forcing with a basin-wide event
  10. brooklynwx99
    although the new CanSIPS is stronger and pushes into super Nino territory, the forcing is stronger and remains along the dateline. just juices the STJ further and strengthens the blocking. this would basically be a Modoki on steroids thanks to the WPAC warm pool. although years like 1972 and 1991 are in the cards, this remains highly encouraging
  11. brooklynwx99
    down for a super Nino if it looks like this. holy shit
  12. brooklynwx99
    yeah Saturday looks like no joke either as the vort rounds the ridge... that is a lot of shear. on the GFS, no less. NAM has a Dixie Alley hodo haha
  13. brooklynwx99
    tomorrow looks really legit for parts of NE. everything is there for potentially significant tornadoes into MA and even into CT / RI... good forcing from the S/W passing to the north, notable LLJ with strong speed and directional shear, 0-1 SRH over 200, 3CAPE over 100, very low LCLs, and more than enough CAPE with these dynamics. you don't get these setups too often around here during mid-summer favoring damaging wind with more dry air aloft once into the HV / NNJ, but still nasty
  14. brooklynwx99
    1.76 in OND. seems about right
  15. brooklynwx99
    https://psl.noaa.gov/cgi-bin/data/composites/printpage.pl https://psl.noaa.gov/data/composites/day/
  16. brooklynwx99
    do you have one single real life friend
  17. brooklynwx99
    that isn’t going to happen
  18. brooklynwx99
    this likely leads to a lower peak in strength in the coming days if I had to take a guess
  19. brooklynwx99
    we'll have to see this season, but as long as the WPAC warm pool is present, it should make Ninas worse and Ninos better due to the forcing being displaced west seems like the former is holding true
  20. brooklynwx99
    it's really a shame. that PV lobe prevented what could have been a 1-3 foot burial if that thing got over the water. some of those solutions before that lobe messed things up were insane
  21. brooklynwx99
    this is why the seasonals showing the forcing more around 160-180W rather than 140-160W is so auspicious 1997-98 is an absolute trash analog right now unless every single seasonal is miles off... which is obviously very unlikely
  22. brooklynwx99
    only thing that really has this MJO pulse in earnest is the CFS. if it's correct, though, this would signal the transition to a more basin-wide Nino rather than the east-based configuration we have right now as 4 and 3.4 warm and 1+2 cools off
  23. brooklynwx99
    it's probably because it has the MJO pulse, but it's still on an island with regards to that... just my guess. most models have a weak wave at best. we'll see which is right over the next couple of weeks
  24. brooklynwx99
    were you a hall monitor in school, by any chance?
  25. brooklynwx99
    honestly, the debs make my life a bit easier. sometimes I get accused of disappearing when the patterns crap out during the winter. wanna know why myself and others don't post when things are quiet? because there are several people waiting to talk about how crap the pattern is. why even bother posting about it lmao it's also just quiet and uninteresting anyway
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