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brooklynwx99

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Everything posted by brooklynwx99

  1. brooklynwx99
    this is a bit disingenuous. the evolution was completely different compared to when you first made that remark
  2. brooklynwx99
    if you guys want to track a storm from 10-15 days out, this comes with the territory. not sure what else to tell you. storms don’t stay in the bullseye on every OP run for 20-40 runs straight
  3. brooklynwx99
    OP runs are basically ensemble members at this range. chill out
  4. brooklynwx99
    so much confluence here over the NE US
  5. brooklynwx99
    stronger 50/50, though
  6. brooklynwx99
    I would still caution against using snowfall means. the 500mb pattern is so good that models will probably come around on that stuff. they already kind of are
  7. brooklynwx99
    NSFW 500mb progression. god damn. great to see the greatest anomalies to our south as well
  8. brooklynwx99
    the ebbing -NAO is often the driver for some of the most prolific storms in NE US history
  9. brooklynwx99
    NSFW 500mb progression. god damn. great to see the greatest anomalies to our south as well
  10. brooklynwx99
    GEFS looks amazing
  11. brooklynwx99
    GEFS looks better than 06z. kicking the S/W east faster, blocking is stronger
  12. brooklynwx99
    the GEFS is disagreeing with the strength of the main S/W by a ton at like 5 days lmao. I think the GFS just got it wrong. its ENS doesn’t even agree with it
  13. brooklynwx99
    also the GEFS is disagreeing with the strength of the main S/W by a ton at like 5 days lmao. I think the GFS just got it wrong. its ENS doesn’t even agree with it
  14. brooklynwx99
    my point was that even with a solution that would normally be an absolute catastrophe, it still manages to almost pull it off. that’s the sign of a really good pattern
  15. brooklynwx99
    I’m not focusing on the specifics at this range… just that the general evolution is the same and just as potent
  16. brooklynwx99
    even after allllll that, the GFS still redevelops. we literally get a coastal from this. that’s why this pattern is so good. you can still get a somewhat favorable end result from garbage
  17. brooklynwx99
    look at these run-to-run changes. it’s just a cracked out OP run. look at the consistency of the CMC/ECMWF and whatever the hell that is. just follow the ensembles
  18. brooklynwx99
    yup, the CMC is insane, very similar to 00z yesterday
  19. brooklynwx99
    also the CMC is still absurd. might be to the west verbatim but I don’t care. this is sick at 500mb and closely resembles 00z
  20. brooklynwx99
    this is why I hate hate hate when people say -NAOs are overrated. bullshit. this thing would be over the Dakotas and we’d be in the 70s if not for it instead, it might actually force a 3 sigma trough to the south. unreal
  21. brooklynwx99
    any strong wave versus this block is basically an immovable object versus a not completely unstoppable force (the vort). a block of this magnitude will win the vast majority of the time look at the persistent negative height anomalies from the gyre in the N Atl
  22. brooklynwx99
    any strong wave versus this block is basically an immovable object versus a not completely unstoppable force (the vort). a block of this magnitude will win the vast majority of the time look at the persistent negative height anomalies from the gyre in the N Atl
  23. brooklynwx99
    look at the NW flow in place over the NE US. this is not gonna be a typical solution that you’d see with a S/W that strong over the SW US. this might just go underneath
  24. brooklynwx99
    that still doesn’t even look bad with the absolutely insane block in place. let the run play out and then look at the ENS
  25. brooklynwx99
    here come the sweeping freakouts over one OP run
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