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brooklynwx99

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Everything posted by brooklynwx99

  1. brooklynwx99
    my point is that what's happening in November isn't representative of the deep winter pattern December is likely going to be crappy and meltdowns will begin, I'm pretty sure of it. same shit happened in 2015 when everyone was crying before Boston got 100" in 6 weeks
  2. brooklynwx99
    the +EPO/+NAO pattern on the EPS matches up with most mod-strong Ninos... the hand wringing about this being the winter pattern by some is pretty ridiculous as Nov/Dec are usually quite warm here
  3. brooklynwx99
    base period is 1993-2016
  4. brooklynwx99
    this looks quite similar to phase 1 forcing that you'd see in Ninos, though. also looks close to typical Ninos with the +EPO and +NAO. i don't see a correlation with Ninas here
  5. brooklynwx99
    I'm just asking because if he means one daily reading at +2.01C is super, then yes, this can certainly become super. everyone seems to have their own definition these days
  6. brooklynwx99
    that just does not look like an overwhelming EP super Nino response. wonder why
  7. brooklynwx99
    yeah it's basically Feb 2010 all over again. makes sense given what's been talked about ad nauseam in this thread
  8. brooklynwx99
    by super, do you mean three consecutive trimonthly periods that average +2.0C or greater? just to be clear
  9. brooklynwx99
    i know people will jump on this because it's JB, but this is all pretty reasonable honestly
  10. brooklynwx99
    come on dude. that is a cold, stormy 500mb pattern
  11. brooklynwx99
    who cares? Nino Decembers usually suck so this isn’t some grand insight like you think it is
  12. brooklynwx99
    no, that’s the magic of it. that way he can say he was right if it does end up snowy
  13. brooklynwx99
    i’ll take this 10/10 times
  14. brooklynwx99
    yeah this is better in that regard for Jan. Feb is about the same but the trough in the east is deeper and there’s actually an Aleutian low
  15. brooklynwx99
    ECMWF seasonal is pretty great for Jan/Feb
  16. brooklynwx99
    that stuff is going to wobble around from day to day. there is still a considerable a weakening trend once we enter December
  17. brooklynwx99
    i mean, this is what last year’s CanSIPS at the same time showed for last DJF. like come on, this year is night and day
  18. brooklynwx99
    i mean hell, notice how he didn’t post the highly favorable Feb and Mar plots wonder why
  19. brooklynwx99
    not at all. that Feb-Mar pattern would deliver… cross polar flow, blocking, and split flow
  20. brooklynwx99
    the CanSIPS has a great pattern for the back half of winter, which can be really exciting historically in El Niños. that’s about all that has to be said
  21. brooklynwx99
    -VP setting up near the dateline on the ECMWF weeklies as well. this is into the first week of December very similar to the Modoki years and far west of the canonical EP super Nino years
  22. brooklynwx99
    there has been a noticeable trend towards a pretty big weakening of the SPV heading into December now
  23. brooklynwx99
    I would take my chances with that pattern. it's just wise to temper expectations given that it's still quite early and it's not a particularly cold look
  24. brooklynwx99
    i'm skeptical... based on the analogs I've seen, March looks warm, but that could be the back half of the month. if Feb does turn out to be blocky (pretty good chance there), I could certainly see the first half of the month being pretty fun
  25. brooklynwx99
    i doubt that'll be the case this year. +PNA should be pretty well favored especially as after mid-Jan. there isn't much of a correlation to El Nino this early. we'd like to see the Aleutian Low develop once into the first few weeks of Dec
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