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brooklynwx99

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Everything posted by brooklynwx99

  1. brooklynwx99
    yes, but get the NS to really dive south and you raise the ceiling. it's a risk I'm willing to take at this point in the season... go big or go home
  2. brooklynwx99
    the whole "no changes" shit is completely disingenuous. there have obviously been wholesale changes in the pattern. whether that leads to snow or not is a totally different story and is dependent on way more factors than simple longwave configuration
  3. brooklynwx99
    no changes?
  4. brooklynwx99
    the EPS is quite nice for early next week. we have a much more cohesive PNA ridge in an ideal location, a vigorous S/W over the Great Lakes digging S, and SS vorticity streaming in to increase the chance for a phase this does have the benefit of having more cold air to work with, and it seems more like a Miller A / hybrid rather than a pure redeveloper that would need perfect timing... seems to have a lot of moisture associated with it, as well
  5. brooklynwx99
    the EPS is quite nice for early next week. we have a much more cohesive PNA ridge in an ideal location, a vigorous S/W over the Great Lakes digging S, and SS vorticity streaming in to increase the chance for a phase this does have the benefit of having more cold air to work with, and it seems more like a Miller A / hybrid rather than a pure redeveloper that would need perfect timing... seems to have a lot of moisture associated with it, as well
  6. brooklynwx99
    I mean, it's not uncommon for a weaker, more progressive wave to establish a baroclinic zone / confluence for a larger, more cohesive follow-up that's pretty much what the EPS and CMC (and ENS) have trended towards
  7. brooklynwx99
    yeah, this is pretty striking from an ENS mean in the short to medium range. perhaps the Pacific is getting resolved in the way we want
  8. brooklynwx99
    the trend is the most important part here IMO, not the end result... the GFS and CMC have been moving towards the ECMWF for a while, hopefully they completely cave at the surface soon. the ENS will be very interesting
  9. brooklynwx99
    GFS making the same changes. awesome 12z suite so far
  10. brooklynwx99
    not true, the ENS show many members that have snow. just has to be wrapped up, which is certainly a possibility. the OP runs just haven't explicitly shown these scenarios yet
  11. brooklynwx99
    CMC completely caved to the ECMWF... total change in the synoptic evolution
  12. brooklynwx99
    this is laughable. complete change in the synoptic evolution
  13. brooklynwx99
    lmao worlds apart here. this is as big of a shift as you'll see at this range
  14. brooklynwx99
    CMC is significantly improved with the heights over the PAC NW
  15. brooklynwx99
    yup, ICON was a pretty nice improvement
  16. brooklynwx99
    the key here with this weekend’s threat is getting the ULL over the NW US to buckle the Pacific flow. this EPS run does a much better job at this, allowing for ridging to push into the Plains and help amplify everything downstream
  17. brooklynwx99
    the key here is getting the ULL over the NW US to buckle the Pacific flow. this EPS run does a much better job at this, allowing for ridging to push into the Plains and help amplify everything downstream
  18. brooklynwx99
    that small improvement over the Pacific leads to a much larger improvement over the OH Valley... this is almost back to where we were at 12z yesterday again, the key here is getting the ULL over the NW US to buckle the Pacific flow. this does a much better job at this, allowing for ridging to push into the Plains and help amplify everything downstream
  19. brooklynwx99
    trying to resolve that chaotic Pacific flow is going to be absolute hell for modeling
  20. brooklynwx99
    ECMWF looks a bit better with more separation between the ULL and S/W of interest... more ridging in the SW US as well. we need the ULL to buckle and create a semblance of a +PNA if we want any chance for a larger storm here EPS is doing the same... good to see that trend reverse
  21. brooklynwx99
    in terms of climo, just from a statistical standpoint, the odds of seeing anything more than plowable on the week of the 20-27th are about the same as the 13-20th. the dynamic outcomes of the seasonal transition probably outweigh the sun angle stuff. it's really the week of the 27th into April when things fall off a cliff
  22. brooklynwx99
    they were good, just not enough. GFS has been absolutely lost with this setup, though
  23. brooklynwx99
    FWIW the ICON made a really nice improvement with the PNA
  24. brooklynwx99
    12z looked great today, though. not seeing the issue there
  25. brooklynwx99
    it’s one run, this is 6 days out, and this is still a strong signal. jeez
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