brooklynwx99
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Everything posted by brooklynwx99
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I wouldn't say that. sample size is just too small. if we have these problems in 2030 then yeah maybe
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also, 2016 was an abject blowtorch with a +10 December, but it also gave BWI and NYC their biggest snowfalls ever. weird things happen in Ninos when the STJ is juiced
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i will take normal 2m temps with a STJ on roids and that blocky 500mb pattern also getting a seasonal to show below normal temps when using the 1981-2010 climo is a feat already. i'm just excited we're getting a shakeup with the Nino
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this is just as plausible, so I'll ride this into the sunset for now
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isn't strong 1.5-2C, very strong 2-2.5C, and super 2.5+C? the mean is advertising a strong Nino, not super i hate twitter lmao
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if we get a strong Nino next winter, the persistent trough over the Southeast will cool those anomalies down. those SSTs are largely a result of 5 Ninas in 7 years also the warm Gulf will help break snowfall records at some point. it's a give and take. repeat 2016 now and BWI gets 36"
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would totally take that. anything to get this Nina crap out of there basin wide anomalies like that would be totally fine, too. just can't be pure east-based
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well this is... robust
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it's because the CFS is more basin-wide/east based and the CanSIPS is more classic Modoki... the farther east-based the Nino is, the farther east that negative anomaly offshore is either way, I would take that 500mb for Jan in a heartbeat. 10x better than what we've seen over the last several years with deep negative anomalies over the SE US
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strong is fine. 2002-03 and 2009-10 were borderline strong. super is bad
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interesting and real, but indeed depressing
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winter is over forever. might as well close up shop. base state and all
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it was more prolific NYC south. NYC had 44.7" and BWI had 43.0" makes sense when you had this pattern for the last three months of the season. basically 2009-10 lite
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an evolution like 1957-58 wouldn't really be that farfetched given where all the warmth is under the surface right now. the CanSIPS has a pretty similar evolution with the stronger east-based anomalies migrating westward during autumn
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57-58 was strong and also came off a stretch of three Ninas. honestly, not a far-fetched SST configuration given the subsurface anomalies. it's somewhere between basin-wide and Modoki. ended up becoming a prolific winter, regardless
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you realize 2002-03 and 2009-10 were both borderline strong, right? the placement of the anomalies matters more, anyway. I would much rather have a strong Modoki instead of a weak-moderate east-based Nino
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I'm cool with that. anything with a chance at a 3 footer is fine by my book with an STJ that strong
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holy fuck lmao absolutely insane take
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you say that, but wait until we get an onslaught of cutoffs like the west has been getting recently. what goes around comes around there has been plenty of discussion about how climate change is making it harder for the MA to get consistent snow, but what I can say with certainty is that when it rains, it pours. put Jan 2016 in this winter and BWI gets a 30 burger
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forky with the weenies lmao
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Modoki is just when the greatest positive anomalies are centered near the Dateline, forcing a deep trough in a really nice spot south of the Aleutians. they're also quite blocky in the Atlantic Nino 1+2 can also have negative anomalies, but it's often just the least warm portion of the ENSO domain
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west-based and central-based are the same thing, just different wording. they're great for both NYC and BWI due to the persistent Aleutian LP
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yeah that look makes me more inclined to think that we might get the holy grail moderate Modoki this year. all that warmth near the Dateline has to go somewhere. the CanSIPS has a nice evolution with the warmth migrating towards the Dateline as the Nino matures PDO also becomes neutral, W Atlantic really cools down. I'm honestly quite excited for next winter
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we have never ever had four -ENSO years in a row, if that's any consolation. ENSO is a self-destructive process
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seasonals almost never predict below average temps for entire months at that range, so the CanSIPS showing a solidly below average February is quite impressive if we get a central-based Nino we're probably going to clean up. those are almost always money
