brooklynwx99

it's likely a mixture of both this time. the 2000-10s aren't really that far away, and those were prolific

yeah, I wouldn't call that kind of pattern legit cold, but I would imagine polar air is getting displaced into the CONUS. def not a torchy pattern i think part of the reason why it looks zonal is due to differences in how the models displace the cold... but there's no way to know unless you look at indies

it wouldn't be that warm with this kind of pattern in place. i find that hard to believe with all the high latitude ridging

nothing quite says "torch" like a -EPO/-NAO ridge bridge. bring on the heat!

least snowy years include 2002-03, 2012-13. and 2014-15. LMAO

that output doesn't even make sense. the SW US would get crushed given how strong the STJ is. even in strong-super Ninos

you honestly think we rise 0.5C in 18 days? based on a run of the mill WWB?

in terms of winters, there is also a major difference between strong and super Ninos. strong ones can still be favorable while super is often a killer. we should just remain at strong, regardless of factors like MEI

these models are still likely suffering from excessive momentum. I think a trimonthly peak in the +1.6-1.9C range is most reasonable at this point

I do expect Nov/Dec to be quite warm... most Ninos are toasty in Dec, which can skew the DJF departures warm

the PDO isn't always in sync with the PNA; IMO it serves to feed back on the ENSO state. for example, a Nina/-PDO is lights out bad because the ENSO configuration usually forces an Aleutian ridge and -PNA that reinforces the -PDO. it's usually the other way around with a +ENSO/+PDO on the other hand, the strong Nino in place should lead to a general +PNA throughout the winter on average, which should continue to erode the -PDO. we should see the PDO rise as we end the month with the persistent +PNA/-EPO in place... that will warm waters up on the west coast

I don't really think the PDO is going to be a major factor this year. if so, maybe early on in December when it's usually warm anyway the PDO is really a factor when it constructively interferes with ENSO... so a -PDO with a La Nina is a death knell because it reenforces the Aleutian HP and -PNA, and vice versa. the El Nino and Aleutian LP likely overwhelm the PDO once we get into late Jan and Feb also, the PDO is prone to large swings, and it should rise pretty quickly. hell, the PDO was -2.2 in Dec 1994 and sharply rose to near 0 in Feb 1995

I have absolutely no idea; that is the wildcard for me. I would hope that models take that into account? but again, I don't really know and I don't really think that 1986/2002 are amazing analogs or anything like that... I just think that we could see some Modoki-esque stretches as we head later into winter. hell, even 2016 had that in January

I don't really see straight BN anomalies for DJF anywhere outside of the SE/SW US. however, I think late Jan into Feb has the potential to be legitimately cold and stormy. will that offset a very warm Dec and early Jan? probably not

i mean, in terms of raw SSTs, this is indeed an EP Nino. those often become basin-wide sans years like 1997 and 1982. I prefer to use the term basin-wide to avoid confusion since we're not writing research papers here regardless of raw SSTs, this Nino continues to not really behave like it should. not really sure how to feel about it, but it seems to be more optimistic than pessimistic given that a year like 2009 shares so many similarities

the new C3S moved the forcing even farther west than the past run to just a tick E of the dateline. the overall forcing later in the winter is much more reminiscent of the CP Nino winters of 1986, 2002, and 2009 rather than the EP super Nino winters of 1972, 1982, 1997, and 2015

I also doubt we'll see a super Nino at all this year, at least in terms of three consecutive averaged ONI > +2C. 3.4 took a pretty big plunge this past month and has stagnated. there isn't much in the way of strong MJO pulses or anomalous WWBs to really kick this into gear... a peak ONI of 1.6-1.9 seems reasonable at this point given slow, steady strengthening throughout the next couple of months. MEI likely peaks somewhere in the 1.1-1.4C range

here is a composite of velocity potential from 1972, 1982, 1997, and 2015 from 10/22-26 compared to the EPS (GEFS and GEPS are near-identical) forecasted 7-day mean VP. it's clear that we're likely going to see forcing remain significantly farther west of those classical super EP Ninos, likely due to the extremely warm WPAC and lingering La Nina base state 2009 still seems to be one of the better analogs in terms of forcing this year. the similarities in forcing between this year and 2009 are pretty uncanny it also seems to stay that way, as the main -VP anomaly is likely going to be centered in the same spot as that year to close the month out. same strength and all

this is why seasonal models aren't great with temps. there isn't just going to be a sea of warmth... the coldest areas will get cold, not just remain near normal. everything gets washed out

if I hear the name Paul Roundy one more time

looks like super is off the table, so that's pretty good. I'm more worried about it not coupling effectively rather than it being a Pacific blowtorch

I also doubt we see the typical super Nino torch outcome at this point. solidly strong events often don't have the same blowtorch effect as years like 1997 or 2015. this year might be most similar in strength to 2009, which peaked at +1.6, or 1991, which peaked at +1.7

same. I think I went with +1.7-1.9 a few weeks ago which is proving to be too aggressive. thinking +1.5-1.7 now. almost no way we see even one trimonthly period at +2.0 at this point

i mean, it's one run of one model, and the end of winter still looks pretty great with split flow and a general -NAO, so I wouldn't get too worked up

either way, the seasonal still echoes my main thoughts... warm Dec, transitional Jan, and a favorable Feb