NorthArlington101
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Everything posted by NorthArlington101
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(Ice)
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This is more than the GEFS snow mean for this period for the last gazillion runs so even though it looked boring with how it played out I think we’d have to be okay with it
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Look at all the QPF we hypothetically lose to ice this next week
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lot going on this run - i wouldn't turn my nose up at it but too messy. Not a folks or a fail
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GFS incoming at 171 hmmm - may be fading out a bit
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I think Saturday's upside is a snowier Wednesday/Thursday event... no shot we don't mix seemingly. ^ most of this is "ice"
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GFS snowing this Saturday at 108 hours out - moderate snow DC-north at 111. Flip to ice at 114 unless you're in NE MD
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With the NAM, 3k, GFS, Canadians, and EURO even kind of on board I’m a little shocked we don’t have WWAs up. I guess if this is really a Thursday morning issue it’s still a bit early.
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1-2” of sleet and a lot of ice that’ll melt pretty fast on Thursday anyway. I’m in.
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50 in UHI hell.
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12k NAM looking like a sleet storm, colder at the surface too. See if the 3k follows.
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Thanks - appreciate these maps. Don’t have Pivotal… can only pay so many subscriptions!
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18z EURO is in for a wintry mix event (sound familiar?) for Saturday. Snowier for the northern tier, more ice everywhere, flips to rain eventually.
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GFS is crazy slow to get this going. Says "what precip" and it's 1am Thursday. Finally icing around 4am
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I based that more off my read of the LWX AFD - but ultimately yes concur that there is most likely no real impact til that late evening-10pm period. fwiw the short range FV3 does the same thing as the RGEM
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Gotta take it with the grain of salt it deserves but RGEM is 1" of snow with sleet and 0.5" of ice for pretty much everyone, lol
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this got delayed a bit which is helping with the impacts - looks something like this as is 10am-10pm Wednesday: light rain/sleet/snow, T-1" as you go toward NE MD 10pm-10am Wednesday Night/Thursday morning: heavier sleet/FRZA, favored spots favored, changing from sleet to FRZA to rain SW->NE
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Still ongoing at this point but impactful-looking... still sleeting in NE MD
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3k is pretty sleety - as others have noted this would help the ice have a chance outside the trees/power lines.
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LWX's first pass:
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I think @WxUSAF mentioned wanting to see the next NBM earlier - fwiw... some of this is from the 10th but most is 12th-on
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another perspective just showing how clear this threat window is... if it wasn't already clear to the group
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buy!
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agree with all points - just to demonstrate a little, this is the 90th percentile snowstorm as shown on the EPS. MECS to maybe borderline HECS is the current "top level" outcome
