NorthArlington101
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Everything posted by NorthArlington101
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LWX's first pass:
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I think @WxUSAF mentioned wanting to see the next NBM earlier - fwiw... some of this is from the 10th but most is 12th-on
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another perspective just showing how clear this threat window is... if it wasn't already clear to the group
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buy!
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agree with all points - just to demonstrate a little, this is the 90th percentile snowstorm as shown on the EPS. MECS to maybe borderline HECS is the current "top level" outcome
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apple weather app showing 12" of snow next tues/weds... the (general public) hype is coming
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lwx disco, emphasis mine:
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This is a 24 hour mean - that's a "woof woof" big dog signal right there. Timeframe has been locked in for 2-days and keeps looking better. 24hr median is equally nutso
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It looks a lot like 00z - 6z went was less icy. But we're talking .1" of difference, though that obviously matters quite a bit
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thump to rain for the 12th
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It's the most meh of all guidance still for sure - but this would be impactful NW. It's ~28 in PSU-land, it's not super heavy, it should accrete.
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Small potatoes compared to what we are eyeing but EURO took a jump south for Saturday ices everyone up pretty good again... any of this precip that isn't snow is ice
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Kinda looks like the Wednesday/Thursday event tbh. Train tracks or whatever
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Eh, looked okay to me. I do prefer the hi-res depictions with a tiny bit of WAA snow before the sleet/FRZA before we mostly dryslot.
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Washes away but interesting run for sure. I’d feel pretty good about something if I wasn’t in the city, and if things keep trending towards the GFS maybe the blind squirrel found a nut. thread?
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Ice goes further south, colder, probably more impactful since it’s overnight. Maybe a little lighter on the precip totals but made up for by chill/timing.
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Mixed precip moves in in earnest around 1am - earlier runs today had stuff in the area closer to noon
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00z GFS even souther and more diffuse - gonna be a different outcome.
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I’m gonna lean compromise but even that EURO is fairly impactful up there - 0.2” of ice accreting slowly. Rough pre-storm airmass will lessen the blow but trees/power lines won’t care much.
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icy impacts Wednesday are probably unlikely inside the city but I think our typically colder spots are looking at an event that'll get them a WAA -- may deserve a thread at 00z.
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It’s consistent for Wednesday but you are sure that won’t happen
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think it’ll get washed out Thursday anyway
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bump
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the 24hr median at 10 days is almost 2"... unbelievable confidence in something. The Jan 6th storm didn't appear on the 24hr median til ~wk out.
