Right after I sent the message the power went out but luckily has returned, for the time being. Got way gustier than I expected for a few minutes. Still definitely #2, but last few minutes were intense.
Dumping and power flickering. Doesn’t compare to the tornadic one earlier this summer, but probably second best of the summer, unless I’m forgetting anything.
Google Photos says that was Feb. 11, 2021 - my memory is already bad but I think that was the second part of the HECS that wasn't from the 10th-12th, the one where the HDRPS dumped 30" on Baltimore.
Very true, though I'm selfishly talking about myself/areas around the metro. I'll take the (surprise?) initiation of showers storms west of Culpeper as a decent sign.
Dale City storm is rotating, as far as I can tell. Wouldn’t be shocked to have that get a TOR. nothing special, but these all seem to have that shrimpy tropical look.
HWRF is a fantastic model, IMO. It's had some absolutely uncanny perfect results when it comes to TC development/strength. Feel like it may be a little aggressive around here but I'm hoping I'm wrong.
The overnight survey was inconclusive and they are looking again today. Might be worth tweeting at the NWS if you think your 'hood has tornado damage. I tried to point them towards Waverly Hills/Cherrydale on Twitter.