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NorthArlington101

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Everything posted by NorthArlington101

  1. NorthArlington101
    TWC must get the the 12z GFS early
  2. NorthArlington101
    I may be misremembering but 28th was a long shot chance as the pattern was changing. Real first window was always the 4th/6th, which is too far away to know anything. If we make it to mid-January with nothing but hopes for winter to be saved in February… that’s a disaster.
  3. NorthArlington101
    GFS says take to the WV mountains this week if you can’t wait another few weeks for snow.
  4. NorthArlington101
    Yeah it’s not even really close. I get annoyed when it’s 33 and not snowing… when it’s 50 I can get over it.
  5. NorthArlington101
    Aren’t we smart enough not to engage folks looking for attention in the LR thread?
  6. NorthArlington101
    First ignore of the year… only ever ignored one person before. Sweet start
  7. NorthArlington101
    In retrospect that's obvious, but when I asked it I was not thinking it would be so recent. Good to have that perspective
  8. NorthArlington101
    If you've got the stats, when is the last time we had more <=32F days than 90+ days?
  9. NorthArlington101
    Euro still has the light disturbance on the 23/24th. Verbatim it’s some light rain and FRZA for colder spots. Worth keeping casual eye on.
  10. NorthArlington101
    Dry slot coming in. Can’t see how we get to the 18-24” that was predicted. Barely have a foot right now.
  11. NorthArlington101
    I look at these posts and a little part of me thinks, thank god this isn’t snow. Already seeing the end on radar!
  12. NorthArlington101
    HRRR gives a dusting to many on the backside of the storm.
  13. NorthArlington101
    EURO control has a Christmas Eve Eve miracle
  14. NorthArlington101
    The follow up wave has enough cold to pull something off, but I take your larger point.
  15. NorthArlington101
    as I try to learn during a relatively quiet period - for our area, we'd want this "vort max(?)" closer to the NC/VA border, correct? and ideally tilted negatively instead of positively?
  16. NorthArlington101
    Run-over-run change... pretty clearly a step toward a better vort pass. Does that lead to any real outcome? Someone smarter can decide
  17. NorthArlington101
    GFS is more EURO-like through hr93. Fairly big shift, though worth noting of course the EURO didn't give us a fantastic outcome anyway
  18. NorthArlington101
    Important tradeoff that will guarantee a better GFS run. Soul for a soul
  19. NorthArlington101
    Biggest GFS run of the season coming up... until the next one.
  20. NorthArlington101
    looks slightly improved from 06z to me. We'll see what the digital snow output looks like. Think the tilt is off though.
  21. NorthArlington101
  22. NorthArlington101
    I'll give PBP for the longshot storms nobody cares about if nobody else will try. Stormtracker/Yoda have the real storms as far as I'm concerned.
  23. NorthArlington101
    Precip (rain/snow light) forming in the region at 114. MSLP off southern OBX. Good upslope run at least thus far. Not sure it cranks in time. Light snow west of 95 by 120. Still positively tilted. Don't think we get the jackpot this run.
  24. NorthArlington101
    I think I like what it's doing at 102. CMC-ish but better with the vort positioning, is my trying-to-get-better-at-reading-maps read.
  25. NorthArlington101
    GEFS looks like a tick in the right direction with the vort pass, FWIW. Doesn't result in much digital snow, but trackable
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