MillvilleWx

This is what I told my Dad. Cautiously optimistic, but not completely in the fully sold category.

Still a chance, but probably lower than normal. I’d be very sad, but I’m also willing to chase this one so long as there is a storm. I’m just hoping it holds for the area so I can chase from the couch.

Meeting in the middle. This storm will have some dual maxima with it too which the smoothed means will not be able to handle, including the AI guidance. As it stands, this would be a QPF bomb with a sharp northern edge. This is one of those setups where you could go from nothing to 0.5” to 1” in under 100 miles.

The 7H and 85H moisture track with a weak 85H low reflection still back into eastern TN. I’d say at least another 6-10 hrs looking at 3hr precip panels and progression. Precip still likely back into the Apps with that look.

I’m not kidding, I thought about you when I saw that sounding and this FGEN map. This is a classic setup for something like this to materialize.

In the words of @psuhoffman , “Pass the cigarette”

Wasn’t me, but I concour! 12:1 average through storm with some chance at 15:1 or better at times. Need this to hold friend!

7H FGEN ALWAYS comes into play for these setups. A secondary jack will occur on the northern fringe and that can actually be pretty prolific. That happened with a few storms in the past where people in Central PA were puking dendrites and got 1-2’ while we got hammered further south with the 85H FGEN and traditional deform. More than one way to score, and that stuff is a long way from getting resolved. I like what the ECMWF and AIFS are depicting. GFS improved too, just a bit different on evolution.

It’s worse than the Euro for sure. It’s like a cross between Euro and Icon. The N/S absolutely destroys any chance that run. The 500mb pattern is night and day from the last two runs. The 5H vort panels say it all.

Different types of setups for those two. Those were split flow phasers in a pattern where blocking was prevalent. Atmosphere slows down and allows for phasing more easily. This one is more overrunning with blocking to the north to anchor in a cold high and maintain a general WSW to ENE progression of waves ejecting out of the southern plains.

The energy is a massive piece of the equation and if that goes sideways, it’s over. Probably the biggest question mark in the whole deal inside 84hrs. Then the confluence afterwards.

It’s not just the strength of the high, it’s the confluence area that sets up between the TPV lobe off Nova Scotia and the impending s/w digging out of Central Canada. The stronger the high, the drier the airmass and colder temps at latitude, but if you have an ejecting piece that phases and pumps the heights out in front a bit, you’ll get precip, but could be more mix. My main concern with this setup is and will always be suppression. It’s a tight rope walk, but a weaker confluent axis tends to verify a little closer in reality, but we’ll see.

Also noticed something similar when assessing the analogs posted back in the Medium Range channel. Very likely the case, but the surface progs are uncanny in similarity. More ways to skin a cat I’m sure. I’m hesitant to sound the full alarm yet since we still have plenty of time to go, but I do like seeing the main players on the field already with the initial impacts into the plains less than 72 hrs away. Seems like we are gearing up for a long week of tracking…at a minimum. I’m still wary of a suppression in this setup, but every monster storm comes with some worry.

Great agreement and a ton of moisture for a smoothed mean. The heavier precip depiction back into the Lower Mississippi to Deep South is indicative of convection too. That’s another classic signature for here.

This arctic intrusion reminds me so much of PDII with its alignment and positioning. I can still picture the 1040 HP on the WBAL Morning news that morning of the storm drilling cold air into the area with moisture attacking. It was 12° and snowing all day. Just surreal. This has the ability to deliver something like that…a cold smoke.

PDII is probably my choice for a closer analog. The banana high, attacking moisture from the south of Gulf origin, and multiple wave ejections from the southwest. A coastal development mid to late storm cycle during the event…lots of similarities. I am not, in any way saying the result will be the same, btw. I am saying pattern evolution similarities are there and that bodes well for the Mid Atlantic.

I worked with Tomer when he was DTB at WPC…this is incredible coming from him…..but he’s not wrong imo. Do I think it’ll be the same magnitude? Probably not, but impactful to a point of major impact potential? Yes, it really could be. This is a pattern where it might not be just one system we are tracking. The teleconnections tell the story. This is the lineup for Mid Atlantic storminess. Details be damned, but this is truly a pattern where there will be a ton to watch over the next 2 weeks. Prep that coffee and prepare for cold weather, at a minimum.

Just pointing out that this setup with post-storm temperatures <10° is very much a possibility with the HP anchored to the north. This is a prolonged cold spell incoming, regardless of snowfall. Snow will only exacerbate the cold potential due to refrigeration effects. If you are in a home that takes oil or fire wood, I would start preparing to have a delivery or go restock the firewood, pellet stoves for the incoming stretch of cold. It could last a while.

As of now, this is all I’m worried about right now. Cards are on the table. Just have to see how the dealer deals the cards. Hopefully we smack on the turn and river.

Very likely terrain enhancement in that area. Winds out of the NE would support that theory.

We had the precip, but thermals were off. Still got some snow and whitened things up nicely over here. Just didn’t really get to the 1” mark. Life at the coast! Still had snow and football….hard to beat that.

OT, but the way you wrote this and provided the source credit is a testament to your writing skills and what you’ve been learning in school. Absolutely impressed. Please keep up with your scholastic work and never ever stop learning. If you ever wanted to be a meteorologist, I’d love to become a mentor for you. You have a lot of positive attributes that you should be damn proud of for being in 9th grade. Major kudos. Now back to the regularly scheduled hemming and hawing over models at 5-7 day leads

Banana high on this is classic too. Long way to go, but I’m optimistic.

Euro AI (AIFS) has the best verification of areal 0.25+” precip coverage at D3-5 right now, second best at D2 and still top 5 inside 24 hrs. It’s not the magnitude you want to pay attention to with AI. It’s the location of the precip distribution and the handling of the 5H mean trough/ridge pattern. It’s very powerful and definitely worthy of looking at for synoptically driven pattern. Convection is okay and still does a relatively good job at location of potential precip maxima, but it cannot handle the magnitude at all. Struggled mightily in that area, but useful nonetheless!

They both were interceptions. Rodgers ball was 100% picked, just like yesterday’s. They screwed ours, but I’m kind of glad because we would’ve gotten ran over by Houston. Anything, I mean ANYTHING to never see Faalele ever play for this team again.