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FXWX

Meteorologist
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Posts posted by FXWX

  1. 8 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

    You will be lucky to grab a coating. This one is likely a goner for all of CT. Time to move to late next week for a favorable pattern. 

    I think that is a bit premature for the northern third of CT; I would still keep the forecast close to the vest and leave some wiggle room in my forecast for northern CT; no reason to hype for sure, but certainly room for measurable across the northern third of CT.  Goner implies there is no room for this to trend into at least a low-grade event for northern CT.

    • Like 1
  2. 2 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

    Remarkable...really hope everyone is alright

    I doubt it... Hopefully the warnings were so good, which they were that folks got into sturdy shelters; although given the likelihood this was an EF 3 or 4, not sure they could have completely escaped without numerous injuries???

     

     

     

     

  3. Just now, The 4 Seasons said:

    I'm doing a snowfall accumulation map for this little event so if you have final numbers please send them to me or @ me. Reports are sparse since it was a minor event, OKX didn't even put out a PNS, BOX and ALY did but they are very limited with only a couple reports. I can check CoCoRahs, they have some but i'd like to get the members on here. 

    I combed through the last few pages and already have DIT, Ginx, Sugarloaf, FlashFreeze and Thunderblizzard.

    If @tavwtby @metagraphica @EastonSN+ @Mr. Windcredible! @WinterWolf @Spanks45 @WxWatcher007 and anyone else from CT i can't think of off the top of my head has any, lmk in the next few hours if u got em, thanks.

    2.0 Burlington

    • Thanks 1
  4. 25 minutes ago, weathafella said:

    Thanks guys for even more outpouring!  This was not my first episode of vertigo but the others were mild and totally manageable.  This one was rough!  Also, my booster was 10/25 so not thinking it’s that especially given the prior mild vertigo events.  Hasn’t happened for 10 years so hopefully I can get some tools to manage it.  
     

    My wife just got me some and coffee and I’m holding it down fine so maybe we’re on the downhill side.  First food and drink in 20 hours.

     

    Thos event will trend back much better by 0z tonight-the slight ticks have already begun.

    Jerry, as a fellow vertigo sufferer, it's sometimes hard to explain to someone who has not experienced a real nasty event, how bad and scary / unsettling an episode can be.   Most of my episodes are mild, but every several years a bad one will hit out of nowhere.  After a horrible event a few years ago, a doctor showed me a video showing how to stop or at least temper the event if you sense one is starting.    I'm sure you can find it online by googling "exercise for vertigo".  I have used it a couple of times since, and it really settled the event down.  The one I've used with success is the one by Dr. Foster...  Stay well... 

     

    • Like 1
    • Thanks 1
  5. 40 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

    It’d be nice if just the northern steam could just go to town underneath us alone.,

    That's the key for CT folks... you need to get the upper features to go at least as far south as LI Sound... cannot go right over our heads...

    • Like 1
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  6. 1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said:

    It’s fine here as well 

    As for the CT outcome, the modeled track of the upper features; especially the 700/850 tracks, are far from ideal for big snows across most of CT, RI and southeastern Mass... decent front-end burst possible and some wrap-around action late, but as modeled those 700 & 850 center tracks have to come considerably further south to offer a decent shot at mod/hvy amounts south of the pike.  Quick transition to mixed and rain if those tracks verify.  Further north, very dynamic event is on the table.

    • Like 1
  7. 1 minute ago, FXWX said:

    My experience is Kp of 7 or better.  Kp of 6 I get interested, but 7 is my go to number.   I dues the Space Weather. com alert system and have my text alerts start at 6,,, The 2003 event was a Kp of 9...  It was also exceptionally early in the evening for our area.  I was following reports form overseas during the late afternoon and once it exploded across Newfoundland with the Kp getting to 9, I called friends and family and told them to get ready to go outside.   You could see the glowing red light from inside your house here in western Connecticut.  

    Correction "I use"

  8. 6 hours ago, Chrisrotary12 said:

    What do we need at our latitude for the lights to be visible to the eye?

    My experience is Kp of 7 or better.  Kp of 6 I get interested, but 7 is my go to number.   I dues the Space Weather. com alert system and have my text alerts start at 6,,, The 2003 event was a Kp of 9...  It was also exceptionally early in the evening for our area.  I was following reports form overseas during the late afternoon and once it exploded across Newfoundland with the Kp getting to 9, I called friends and family and told them to get ready to go outside.   You could see the glowing red light from inside your house here in western Connecticut.  

    • Like 2
  9. Interesting to note that while there are some hints of an eastward trend, a loop of the Northeast radar composite nicely shows showers across central & western NY heading west/northwest; strongly implying the modeled tug or bend back to the northwest as Henri is likely as it approaches LI. 

    Aug 21 Henri.png

    • Like 2
  10. 2 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

    I think we touched on that. Both the ridge to the east and trough to the west are not typical for us to get canes. So you don’t have that massive pressure gradient like in previous storms. So it’s sort of on its own as far as analogs. I think that is why wind field appears much tighter compared to other storms in the past. 

    Hey Scott... I know you in particular have been hitting the pressure gradient or lack thereof hard with respect to the apparent confined / non-expanding wind field as Henri comes north into SNE.  That appears to be the case and it will be interesting to see if that is being correctly model, or there ends up being a bit more expansive than currently shown.  The 925 wind field trends certainly suggest the lack of a tight gradient on its eastern flank will decrease the size of the damaging wind threat east of the track.   My comment was more related to just frequent comments about model track shifts with only little note of the surrounding large-scale pattern trends.  But I have noted your correct assessment of the gradient issue and its relationship to apparent less than normal wind expansion.  Certainly not a classic New England hurricane pattern with a wide open south to north flow channel sucking a storm into SNE.  More of a baby Sandy look.

    I'm not on here all that frequently and likely missed others commenting about the pattern trends & gradient issue.

     

  11. Just my 2-cents, but way too much emphasis on every tiny track or intensity change on every 6 hour model run.  Not enough emphasis on the trends of the strength and physical layout of the west Atl. ridge to Henri's north and east, as well as the behavior of the OV upper level trough.  Henri does not exist in a vacuum.  It will only go where other large-scale features allow it to go.  Closely monitor the position and changes & pressure tendencies of the Atlantic ridge's isobaric pattern.  You have to continually ask yourself, does the modeled track make sense given the layout of the large-scale surface and upper air pressure / height pattern.

    • Like 4
    • Thanks 4
  12. Yes... nothing to organize & sustain t-storms; these are pure pulse / air mass cells.  Weakening is not related to any sea breeze influence; air feeding into the cluster is upper 80's with +70 dp.  Would not be surprised by a sneaky outflow boundary or two allowing a couple of additional cells to pop...

  13. 5 hours ago, weatherwiz said:

    Excellent post. 

    The same size we have too on such events are just so small the margin of error is quite high. Even re-analysis of ENSO events prior to 1950...you can't really make correlations to ENSO events now and even if so...alot of the re-analysis data may be quite suspect. When you have a strong ENSO episode that's obviously going to dominate and we know what that will do...especially a strong EL Nino but if its a weak ENSO signal or maybe even low end moderate...the correlation IMO is going to be pretty small 

    Agree...

    • Like 1
  14. 18 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said:

    I’ve seen quite a bit of scuttlebutt out there that it will be strong . If it is… it’s over before it begins . Hopefully you’re right with a weak Niña forecast 

    Well, its not my forecast...  I only monitor sst and modeling trends.  I was only commenting on the fact that the CPC discussion didn't  indicate a strong event was likely.   I leave enso forecast up to folks with a heck of a lot more expertise in that field than I have.   Given we are only in mid-summer, I would never rule anything out. 

     

    18 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said:

    I’ve seen quite a bit of scuttlebutt out there that it will be strong . If it is… it’s over before it begins . Hopefully you’re right with a weak Niña forecast 

     

  15. 40 minutes ago, 512high said:

    Cant be worse then last year.....can it? (please no)

    Over the years, I've never been overly worried about a weak La Nina; they can workout ok for New England.  Trying to simplify a winter outlook based almost solely on the enso is foolhardy, especially given the recent trend of winter enso events not adhering to many of the rule of thumb winter composites.   Old rules may not be as valid, as we once thought???

     

    • Like 3
  16. 25 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

    Strong Niña just issued by govt today. It’s already over

    Didn't see anything in their discussion indicating strong event?  Modeling trends are mainly on the weak side overall, which has been the expectation for quite a while now...

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