FXWX

37 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

That’s some cold just over the border for the later system. That seems to be the next thing to keep an eye on besides later this week. 

Regardless of how the storm issues do or do not play out, those are 2 very nasty late season cold slugs coming into southeastern Canada this upcoming weekend and then again the middle of next week... 

Just now, weatherwiz said:

Thanks, but I didn’t handle it too well though. I said focus would be SE MA and RI. I think Ryan first mentioned the steep lapse rates too. I didn’t even think it would be this widespread...fun stuff! 

Details always need to be worked out; but you had the guts to start a thread!

18 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

Ahhh yes...non-uniform beam filling. Ughh I was just reading about that too on the NWS training page. 

Nice call / heads-up on this event Wiz...

3 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Not that anyone asked but I'm not sure I understand (necessarily) why the modeling initialization has to be cow-tied to the movement of the clock in the first place ... Every reason I have ever heard sounds perfunctory if not knee-jerk replaying a familiar mantra of faux perceived limitation. 

I disagree - the world of technology is not a part of natural laws. We're not asking to change E=MC2 here ... It may be a pain in the collective ass for deterministic/operational weather forecasting to "re"wire the globe around something ...oh, gee, intelligent... Or, we can keep coming up with preclusively insurmountable excuses that when are put in the logic crucible they only purify to excuses to not change period. 

In general, there is a tendency ( I feel ..) for industrialized society "switch trippers" to trap their thinking inside of bounds of operation ...and when first suggestion for change materializes, that's impossible! No, there's no hand from god, or Quantum Mechanical principle in natural physics that says we can't call time whatever in the f we want.  

But perhaps this is a maverick talking    Rewire the thing ... so that it's 7 am period... .Move the clocks all we want... you launch your f balloons and drop your sondes and program your satellites at that same numerical clock value, period. 

Yup!  Balloon launch at 11 z / 23 z during DST works for me! lol

5 minutes ago, Whineminster said:

Take it to a vote, let the people decide.   But I heard on most polls people want DST

Would not be at all surprised if that is the case; in fact I would expect it.  Although a popularity poll doesn't mean it is the right thing to do? 

5 minutes ago, weathafella said:

When it happened in the 70s there was a huge uproar and it quickly ended.  Maybe it should be done n southern areas and not the north?  I still prefer the seasons in seasons of standard time in fall and winter and DST in spring and summer.

Agree 110%...  It will lead to a big push back from school districts and parents.  I'm perfectly fine with the status quo...  To be honest, I hate the thought of 2 pm for the Euro release; many of my wintertime school updates need to be fully out by 2 pm and I always want to get a at least a quick peak at the Euro before updating evening / overnight periods.   By the time DST kicks in now during early/mid March winter forecasting stress is usually starting to wane so I can live with the current flip to DST but would hate it for the NOV-FEB period.

1 hour ago, Ginx snewx said:

Its coming just a matter of time 

I will tell you right now, if we go DST year round it will lead to several additional late openings school decisions a year across portions of SNE.  One thing that is frequently assessed in predawn conversations with superintendents is when is sunrise and when will it be bright enough to see clearly along the sides of roads & corners during ongoing clean-up post storm periods.  While some high school pick-up times during EST are during solidly dark times, DST would put middle and elementary students into the dark mix??? 

5 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Yea I neglected to consider how soft we have gotten with school delays and cancellations. A rogue cumulous cloud can threaten a district’s decision. 

I've been involved with this end of forecasting for 30+ years and things have certainly changed.  But there are a multitude of factors in play now (input from DPW/Police/Politicians/Bus companies/insurance companies/tons of student drivers & PARENTS) that make it an easier and quicker call by superintendents.  I do not know of a superintendent that wants to cancel school; but you have no idea about the conversations that go on from all the entities list above.  It is almost always a damned if you do and damned if you don't situation. 

18 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Go to work Monday CT peeps. No snowday fo you. Thing is done by 5am.

Widespread school cancellations will occur given timing...  If confidence is high that amounts will verify, we will see schools announce this evening.  With it ending west to east during the 4:30 to 7 am period, clean-up time for most schools will not be able to get facilities ready and side / back roads will still need some work.  Even with delays, many districts have buses on the road by or shortly after 7 am... Some districts with 3 hour delays may have a shot...

Where is the omega profile located in the clickable sounding?