FXWX

11 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

There was a 5 minute period where things were getting struck left and right. The Thunder was instant and crashing . Not much wind .. but that was a top 3 Lightning and Thunder display for me 

Nice...

9 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

This lighting is prolific 

Looks a bit active! Lol

40 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Seems to less wildfire smoke recently. Wonder if a lot of the fires are out ?

Latest summary indicates several large fires still out of control...  Upper level winds have not been favorable from large transport of smoke into the US recently.  

2 hours ago, kdxken said:

Heat maps are posted at 4:00 p.m. and cold maps are posted at 2:00 a.m. . Are you new here?

Lol... Not new but occasionally forget the rules!

2 minutes ago, JJBASHB said:

 

GFS holding onto the frigid 4th!

Cherry picking the 2 am time period?

2 hours ago, OceanStWx said:

 

It was like 2017ish. 

It was a bit of a Frankenstein "model". We really wanted some sort of probabilistic convective scale guidance, but it takes a lot of computing to run a large CAM ensemble. So somebody smarter than me decided to take what we already had running (ARW, HRRR, NSSL, etc) and turn them into a poor man's ensemble along with the 12 hour old versions of the same models. 

Pros: it provides some probability-like forecast parameters, it has a range of models/convective cores that can provide insight when biases are known.

Cons: it is not a true ensemble, as you would prefer one core and the entire range of possibilities for that. 

Thanks for the detailed history info...  I often incorporate it into short term (24 hr.) storm trends forecasts... Have found its winter precip products quite useful.  

2 hours ago, weatherwiz said:

Interesting. Assuming this could be a big positive in more resources would be available for the RRFS instead of running all these various short-term mesos.

Would not want to lose the HREF... 

I for one have grown to have great respect for Tip's ability to decode the long lead tea leaves, when it comes what the tele index trends are implying!  His ability to discern heat burst potential is something we should pay attention to?  He would be the first to tell you nothing is a lock, but knowing he sees the potential is reason enough pay attention.  

1 minute ago, dendrite said:

100F on Hot Saturday

Actually climate summary I saw shows 100.  Last 90 was July 2022; I think.  Could be wrong 

3 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said:

81.1 here. Yes!!!! It’s an all timer here 

https://imgur.com/a/lhevvSh

At my elevation I usually struggle to hit/top 90...  I have bounced between 95 and 97 today!!!!

10 minutes ago, Spanks45 said:

I did not really believe the 80⁰ dewpoints, but KOXC was at 82⁰ last hour....unreal

I've had 80 on all 3 of my sensors!

4 hours ago, codfishsnowman said:

We got a few bass, pickerel, yellow perch and good size American Eels but never any bullheads. Do you know if it ever produced those?

Never heard of any; yellow perch my have the upper hand now...

3 hours ago, Chrisrotary12 said:

No by all means do. I'm just implying that sizable trees fall in CT because a squirrel farts.

Also the occasional chipmunk!  Did note 14,000 outages in MA and scattered reports across eastern NY and Northern New England...  Bottom line is the New England region has an aging dense hardwood tree canopy with an abundance of diseased and previous damaged trees!  We need either a derecho or CAT 3 to clean house...

2 hours ago, Chrisrotary12 said:

No by all means do. I'm just implying that sizable trees fall in CT because a squirrel farts.

Also the occasional chipmunk!  Did note 14,000 outages in MA and scattered reports across eastern NY and Northern New England...  Bottom line is the New England region has an aging dense hardwood tree canopy with an abundance of diseased and previous damaged trees!  We need either a derecho or CAT 3 to clean house...

4 minutes ago, Chrisrotary12 said:

That state is so laughable when it comes to damage.

Are you implying I shouldn't post a picture if a sizable tree falls across a road just because it happened in CT?

New tree issue in Burlington CT... 100% leaf cover and 40 mph working it's magic on poorly maintained trees...

35 minutes ago, codfishsnowman said:

I used to love fishing Lake Garda when I was a kid. Big bluegills and lots of them. Used to go with my buddy Jimmy Johnson and then we'd clean em up and cook em on the grill.

Yes... it has always been a bluegill hot spot...

Probably not a well-organized one... All of the tree damage was a mile or two apart... Looks like downburst on the leading edge of the storm; all of trees / tree limbs were blown southwest to northeast; but nothing concentrated.

53 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Johnnycake ?

Actually not, surprisingly...   On the Lake Grada side of town close to the Unionville line...

Burlington CT

The cicada bugs are out of control on the Cape... Give a listen! 

38 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

Yeah and I don't really see anything on social media or anything. I wonder WTF that was. 

Probably was a small / localized event... I have experienced a couple of similar events across this part of Burlington that never registered anything on USGS...

1.25" here 

15 minutes ago, FXWX said:

42 mph gust here just now!

52 mph!!!

8 minutes ago, mreaves said:

HAIL! HAIL!

 

8 minutes ago, mreaves said:

HAIL! HAIL!

 

42 mph gust here just now!