WxWatcher007

Beryl is a truly extraordinary system. May make a run at category 5.

945.1mb extrapolated on that latest pass

Absolutely incredible. July 1. In the MDR.

We’ve also seen instances where SFMR are discounted at extremely high speeds, or found to be more instantaneous than sustained. Not saying that’s the case here but we’ve seen it before on our high end storms.

The consensus for this one really came apart in the last day

It’s just a tough area. Our meh days are really meh and on the higher end days we’re so densely populated that can be highly impactful. My question about the geographic scale is—I think we are kind of end up in a compressed range on the SPC categories part because of climo and part because of size. They wouldn’t really do an enh for a few counties and mod and high risk aren’t really possible here. Once a generation days don’t count.

This escalated quickly lol

Hopefully some beneficial rain for areas where it’s badly needed.

Which is why I wholeheartedly believe that another Gloria type event would be legitimately catastrophic here in CT. I have to say…I agree. It’s not just that statistically the more active a season is the more likely our always low odds are higher, it’s the steering pattern that I expect to play out because of the expected CONUS summer. Particularly August and September. I don’t think it’s like last year where there were possible windows because of so many GL troughs cutting off. I think if there’s a window it’s late July to mid August as something rides the edge of an Atlantic ridge, or mid to late September (but probably earlier in that period) when we can get something in the western Caribbean shunted north off an approaching trough while the Atlantic ridge is still a prominent factor in our wx. Of course odds are always low yada yada but we’ve been fairly active the last half decade.

I’m just asking generally, not really talking about today.

Why does there need to be a geographical coverage criteria for the higher categories? That’s how you get enhanced damage on slight days.

It will be interesting to see how quickly the ERC finishes, and if that actually precedes another period of RI. Longer term is interesting even with so much consensus right now. Edit: yup ^

Impactful in CT but yeah I think a slight would’ve been fine too. Early convection really blunted potential.

Thanks. We have a VDM too now from recon. Despite the SFMR, like @wxmx said earlier the FL winds weren’t quite there yet. Wouldn’t take much to get a name though. Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)Transmitted: 30th day of the month at 19:09ZAgency: United States Air ForceAircraft: Lockheed WC-130J Hercules with reg. number AF98-5308Mission Purpose: Investigate fourth suspect area (flight in the North Atlantic basin)Mission Number: 1Observation Number: 08 ( See all messages of this type for this mission. )A. Time of Center Fix: 30th day of the month at 18:14:00ZB. Center Fix Coordinates: 19.59N 95.39WB. Center Fix Location: 195 statute miles (313 km) to the NW (305°) from Villahermosa, Tabasco, Mexico.C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: Not AvailableD. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 1007mb (29.74 inHg) - ExtrapolatedE. Dropsonde Surface Wind at Center (Undecoded): NAF. Eye Character: Not AvailableG. Eye Shape: Not AvailableH. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 47kts (54.1mph)I. Location & Time of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 1 nautical miles to the W (274°) of center fix at 18:13:30ZJ. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 290° at 25kts (From the WNW at 28.8mph)K. Location & Time of the Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 26 nautical miles (30 statute miles) to the WNW/NW (304°) of center fix at 18:05:00ZL. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Outbound: 32kts (36.8mph)M. Location & Time of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Outbound: 7 nautical miles to the E (95°) of center fix at 18:16:00ZN. Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: From 180° at 25kts (From the S at 28.8mph)O. Location & Time of the Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: 42 nautical miles (48 statute miles) to the ESE/SE (124°) of center fix at 18:31:00ZP. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 21°C (70°F) at a pressure alt. of 372m (1,220ft)Q. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 21°C (70°F) at a pressure alt. of 336m (1,102ft)R. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 21°C (70°F)R. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not AvailableS. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Wind and PressureS. Fix Level: 1,500 feetT. Navigational Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical milesT. Meteorological Accuracy: 2 nautical milesRemarks Section: Maximum Flight Level Wind: 25kts (~ 28.8mph) which was observed 26 nautical miles (30 statute miles) to the WNW/NW (304°) from the flight level center at 18:05:00Z Sea Level Pressure Extrapolation From: Below 1500 feet Maximum Flight Level Temp: 24°C (75°F) which was observed 20 nautical miles (23 statute miles) to the NW (309°) from the flight level center

Summer of floods the sequel

We went from drier than normal June to AN in about a week lol.

All I had to do was leave the state. Absolute depraved heart ruthlessness

That’s a good catch. FL winds are not as impressive.

Recon finding some TS force SFMR here. It could get a name if sufficiently organized.

I am never going to get over missing a banner week for severe imby

Island roulette is tricky business though. Any wobble especially on a smaller storm like this and you’re flying out for TS winds.

Location, location, location Beryl and 96L were given a tremendous runway by virtue of coming off Africa pretty far south and being embedded in the monsoon trough. Even a few degrees further north and it’s a much different story. Makes this all the more extraordinary. https://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/sal/g16split/movies/goes16split.html

I never had a chance. Going to miss another event in Albany.