WxWatcher007

Looking at the recent guidance, if I were going to highlight some areas of interest it would be the Gulf/SE Coast in the next week, the western Caribbean with a weak CAG signal in the 7-10 day period, and a tropical wave in the MDR in that same period. It looks pretty active--or at least there will be chances for TC genesis. Might do a post later about it. I track my peak season forecast numbers in the legacy Mid-Atlantic thread, but I'll post here too. Imelda likely gets me to 3 H or 50% of my forecast with three full weeks left (including today). It has an outside shot at MH, which may all but guarantee that I am too low on MH as I expect at least high end activity in October. Unfortunately for coastal residents, I still think a MH strike is likely, and that the east coast isn't out of the woods on threats. I'm not sure what to think about Imelda's threat to the coast--if not for Humberto going nuclear, I think this would've been the EC hurricane strike I predicted. For the east coast that definitely gets less likely in October though as the images I posted above show, that's really after the 10th. Peak Season Forecast (Aug 20-Oct 20) Named Storms: 10 (4) Hurricanes: 6 (2) Major Hurricanes: 3 (2) Fernand, Gabrielle (MH), Humberto (MH), Imelda

Should've posted this yesterday but it actually makes more sense today as Imelda is on an intensification trend. Imelda adds to the list and should become a hurricane. Outside shot at a major. The peak season forecast is still up in the air, but with activity still expected on the models and in the areas I highlighted, I like where I sit. Peak Season Forecast (Aug 20-Oct 20) Named Storms: 10 (4) Hurricanes: 6 (2) Major Hurricanes: 3 (2) Fernand, Gabrielle (MH), Humberto (MH), Imelda

The ragged eyewall does look like it collapsed per recon, but that's not really a surprise given IR last night. I do agree that the presentation has really improved and the pressure falls have been impressive.

We uninstalled weeks ago and haven't looked back.

Agree with this. I will say that some of the AI models earned a little more respect with me this season, but to your point--it's going to take time to truly get a sense of how well it analyzes critical forecasting factors over the long term. Every forecast is different and every TC is a distinct entity. And at any rate...models are merely tools. So us laypeople should beware relying on any one as gospel in any situation. (not saying that anyone here is necessarily doing that)

Also, this is an extraordinary satellite image. About as close as you can get. Both in coastal impacts and two TCs interacting with one another.

The wind field is still not particularly organized or strong, but the winds are gradually coming up as the satellite presentation continues to improve. The center is now under a developing CDO, with persistent deep convection we should see the pace of organization pick up over the course of the day. The pressure has continued to fall, with the latest center dropsonde showing a possible pressure below 990mb now. Product: Air Force Temp Drop (Dropsonde) Message (UZNT13 KNHC)Transmitted: 29th day of the month at 13:23ZAgency: United States Air ForceAircraft: Lockheed WC-130J Hercules with reg. number AF97-5304Storm Name: ImeldaStorm Number: 09 (flight in the North Atlantic basin)Mission Number: 22Observation Number: 10Part A... Date: Near the closest hour of 13Z on the 29th day of the month Highest Mandatory Level For Which Wind Was Reported: 925mb Coordinates: 26.6N 77.2W Location: 108 statute miles (173 km) to the N (5°) from Nassau, Bahamas. Marsden Square: 080 ( About ) Surface and Standard Isobaric Surfaces Level Geo. Height Air Temp. Dew Point Wind Direction Wind Speed 1000mb -93m (-305 ft) This level does not exist in this area of the storm above the surface level. 990mb (29.24 inHg) Surface (Sea Level) 26.0°C (78.8°F) 25.5°C (78°F) 135° (from the SE) 20 knots (23 mph) 925mb 596m (1,955 ft) 23.8°C (74.8°F) 23.2°C (74°F) 145° (from the SE) 15 knots (17 mph) 850mb 1,337m (4,386 ft) 21.6°C (70.9°F) 20.3°C (69°F) No Wind Report Available For This Level Information About Radiosonde: - Launch Time: 13:13Z - About Sonde: A descending radiosonde tracked automatically by satellite navigation with no solar or infrared correction. Remarks Section... Dropsonde Location: Dropped in center.

I think the risk is still there, especially as climo shifts to the Gulf/Western Caribbean.

I hope so. I haven’t done too much thinking about winter yet but it’s less that it’s been dry thus far in my mind and more the background state of warm seasons and worse, that it seems our results are untethered from patterns that normally would be good to great for us. That concerns me. Like @CoastalWx, I’ve totally lost faith after the last decade.

Truly horrific.

The GFS and Euro look like they’ve been trying to catch up with showing more vorticity and maybe a weak low developing, but time and shear may be inhibitors. There’s very clearly spin, but no convection whatsoever. It’s at least lemon worthy imo.

Recon has been in Imelda and although it has not intensified much (there are stronger FL winds showing up now), it is confirming that the satellite appearance of more organization near the center is legit. Note that curved band of deep convection near the center, and how it is trying to wrap upshear. We'll see if the shear currently present keeps this organizational trend in check. Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)Transmitted: 29th day of the month at 2:20ZAgency: United States Air ForceAircraft: Lockheed WC-130J Hercules with reg. number AF98-5307Storm Name: ImeldaStorm Number & Year: 09 in 2025 (flight in the North Atlantic basin)Mission Number: 20Observation Number: 09 ( See all messages of this type for this mission. )A. Time of Center Fix: 29th day of the month at 1:53:20ZB. Center Fix Coordinates: 24.74N 77.09WB. Center Fix Location: 27 statute miles (44 km) to the SE (142°) from Nassau, Bahamas.C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 1,420m (4,659ft) at 850mbD. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 998mb (29.47 inHg)E. Dropsonde Surface Wind at Center: From 160° at 3kts (From the SSE at 3mph)F. Eye Character: Open in the southeastG. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 25 nautical miles (29 statute miles)H. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 31kts (35.7mph)I. Location & Time of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 80 nautical miles (92 statute miles) to the NE (46°) of center fix at 1:28:30ZJ. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 104° at 46kts (From the ESE at 52.9mph)K. Location & Time of the Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 75 nautical miles (86 statute miles) to the NE (45°) of center fix at 1:30:00ZL. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Outbound: 28kts (32.2mph)M. Location & Time of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Outbound: 16 nautical miles (18 statute miles) to the SW (228°) of center fix at 1:58:30ZN. Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: From 344° at 38kts (From the NNW at 43.7mph)O. Location & Time of the Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: 35 nautical miles (40 statute miles) to the SW (228°) of center fix at 2:04:00ZP. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 16°C (61°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,526m (5,007ft)Q. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 20°C (68°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,525m (5,003ft)R. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 19°C (66°F)R. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not AvailableS. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and TemperatureS. Fix Levels (surface & flight level centers within 5nm of each other): Surface and 850mbT. Navigational Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical milesT. Meteorological Accuracy: 4 nautical milesRemarks Section - Remarks That Were Decoded... Maximum Flight Level Wind: 46kts (~ 52.9mph) which was observed 75 nautical miles (86 statute miles) to the NE (45°) from the flight level center at 1:30:00Z Remarks Section - Additional Remarks... RAGGED EYEWALL 50% COVERAGE

I love fall and being in the Goldilocks zone for wx this time of year, so I’m with you on decent warmth—I just don’t like the upper level look. I want to see step downs. We keep saying these warm falls are fine and then I’m looking at +2 DJF and 30% of snow climo on March 15. I guess you could say I’m spooked

I really don’t like this but if there’s a saving grace hopefully we snap back to troughing as we get closer to November.

Shame they couldn't be there during the peak, but it's good to have data.

Yeah Oct 7-20 is critical to my peak season forecast. I'm still thinking things heat up in the western Caribbean and Gulf during that period, and then we are winding down the season by the end of October.

A truly terrible game.

High here of 85.4

Yes

Not much to say right now as Imelda continues to gradually (and slowly) organize. As the NHC notes, with the change in track forecast and further south position, this may end up in a more favorable position relative to the trough and SST/OHC, which could open the door for more intensification once this develops an inner core and pulls away from the coast. I think Imelda has an outside chance at becoming a major in the coming days. SHIPS continues to show meaningful probabilities for RI.

They have certainly earned my respect this season.

High of 85.1 here at WXW1. Average high is 71 lol. This is legitimate summer like wx.

Fits well with my peak season forecast.

The Euro has been just another model for a long time now. Even though this turn was part of the envelope of possibilities, what’s particularly jarring was the Euro/GFS and their ensembles choosing the wrong path together inside 100 hours. That’s noteworthy imo. The AI models seem to have schooled the legacy guidance on this one.