WxWatcher007

Haha it’s stronger off the Mid Atlantic coast than the Gulf. Probably post tropical but still fun lol.

We sign for the 5 bun run of the Euro

12z Euro Out to lunch (probably) but great eye candy. (but watch the ensembles)

Tropical Depression Two Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022021 1100 AM EDT Mon Jun 14 2021 Satellite and radar images show that the low pressure area that NHC has been following since yesterday off the coast of North Carolina has become better organized, with a small central dense overcast over the center and more prominent banding features. The low also has advanced ahead of a nearby diffuse stationary front, with that boundary lying northwest of the center. Considering the small core of the low, ample deep convection, satellite pattern, and that the low is feeding off of the thunderstorm activity (and not the front) -- it is now classified as a tropical depression. The initial intensity is set to 30 kt, which is our best estimate assuming strengthening from the 20-25 kt overnight ASCAT and surface observations. The depression is moving northeastward at about 18 kt. A large mid-latitude trough digging across eastern North America should cause the cyclone to continue moving generally northeastward, but faster, over the next couple of days. In about 48 hours, the system is forecast to dissipate near Newfoundland as it is absorbed by a larger extratropical low. Model guidance is in very good agreement on this scenario, and the NHC forecast lies near the track consensus. The depression has about 24 hours over marginally warm waters in low-to-moderate shear to strengthen before it moves north of the Gulf Stream and decays. Almost all of the intensity guidance shows the system becoming a tropical storm tonight, and considering the healthy initial structure, the official forecast follows that guidance. The low should lose tropical characteristics in about 36 hours due to very cold waters and dissipate near Newfoundland in about 2 days. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 14/1500Z 35.0N 73.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 15/0000Z 36.6N 70.9W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 15/1200Z 39.8N 65.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 16/0000Z 43.6N 59.7W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 16/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Blake

First discussion. Tropical Depression Two Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022021 1100 AM EDT Mon Jun 14 2021 Satellite and radar images show that the low pressure area that NHC has been following since yesterday off the coast of North Carolina has become better organized, with a small central dense overcast over the center and more prominent banding features. The low also has advanced ahead of a nearby diffuse stationary front, with that boundary lying northwest of the center. Considering the small core of the low, ample deep convection, satellite pattern, and that the low is feeding off of the thunderstorm activity (and not the front) -- it is now classified as a tropical depression. The initial intensity is set to 30 kt, which is our best estimate assuming strengthening from the 20-25 kt overnight ASCAT and surface observations. The depression is moving northeastward at about 18 kt. A large mid-latitude trough digging across eastern North America should cause the cyclone to continue moving generally northeastward, but faster, over the next couple of days. In about 48 hours, the system is forecast to dissipate near Newfoundland as it is absorbed by a larger extratropical low. Model guidance is in very good agreement on this scenario, and the NHC forecast lies near the track consensus. The depression has about 24 hours over marginally warm waters in low-to-moderate shear to strengthen before it moves north of the Gulf Stream and decays. Almost all of the intensity guidance shows the system becoming a tropical storm tonight, and considering the healthy initial structure, the official forecast follows that guidance. The low should lose tropical characteristics in about 36 hours due to very cold waters and dissipate near Newfoundland in about 2 days. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 14/1500Z 35.0N 73.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 15/0000Z 36.6N 70.9W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 15/1200Z 39.8N 65.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 16/0000Z 43.6N 59.7W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 16/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Blake

Yeah, not an invest yet, but it might be the more impressive of the disturbances given its location. Back to 92L--I don't think anything has changed here. I still expect development of a TS level system, that might be fairly broad to start, but will be an efficient rain maker. We always knew this one would take time to develop. That fits climo.

It’s also still a bit early, but 92L might be something to watch for remnant impacts next week. Both the GEFS and especially the EPS maintain some sort of low (post tropical once at our latitude) tracking near or over the region.

Yeah. It’s a good reminder though of how quickly things can pop close to home. This is one of the more impressive ones I’ve seen in recent years.

The convective burst around 1am last night was excellent. It actually looked like a classic TC genesis signal on IR and radar IMO but the low was still tied to the front. Man I love tracking tropical.

Saw that burst of convection last night and said that’s something that can pop.

That low off SC actually looks decent tonight.

I think it was about 36 hours ago but just count me as last.

Normally, it'd be a bit early to start a thread, but given the consensus for TC genesis on the guidance and potential flooding hazard to parts of the Gulf Coast, I think it's worth starting a thread. This is something we've been watching since early in the month, with consistent signals for a window of development in the western Caribbean or Bay of Campeche (BoC) finally focusing on a trough of low pressure that should spawn something in the next few days. Both intensity and track are TBD, but if this follows climo we would end up with a fairly large and disorganized system with the potential to bring significant rainfall to parts of the Gulf. While the Gulf is warm and the concave nature of the BoC favors development, there is a lot of shear over the region currently which will inhibit development for a while. Conditions are expected to become more conducive in the coming week. Just a final note: be wary of the spaghetti model guidance. It's not particularly helpful when we don't have a developed system (and even then...) so I'd focus on the GEFS and EPS with operational guidance second. Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 AM EDT Sun Jun 13 2021 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: 1. A trough of low pressure continues to produce a large area of disorganized cloudiness and showers over the Bay of Campeche. Slow development is possible over the next several days while the broad disturbance moves little, and a tropical depression could form in this area late in the week. Regardless of development, heavy rainfall will be possible over portions of Central America and southern Mexico during the next several days. Please consult products from your local meteorological service for more information. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent. Forecaster Blake

What was the third? Fay and Isaias I remember.

What’s the tiebreaker? Thank you for your work on this.

A sloppy system fits climo, so I’m not surprised the guidance has trended to a messier system. That said, there’s still a lot to figure out. BoC tends to be a good place for TC genesis so I’d expect at least a depression to form.

…and I post more about tropical than anyone else on AmWx lol.

Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 AM EDT Sat Jun 12 2021 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: 1. An area of cloudiness and showers has developed over the Bay of Campeche and the adjacent land areas. Slow development of this system is possible over the next several days as it moves slowly and erratically, and a tropical depression could form in this area by the middle of next week. Due to the slow motion, regardless of development, heavy rainfall is possible over portions of Central America and southern Mexico. Please consult products from your local meteorological service for more information. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent. Forecaster Beven/Latto

Been talking about it for a long time, but now it looks like development will be focused in the BoC Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 AM EDT Sat Jun 12 2021 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: 1. An area of cloudiness and showers has developed over the Bay of Campeche and the adjacent land areas. Slow development of this system is possible over the next several days as it moves slowly and erratically, and a tropical depression could form in this area by the middle of next week. Due to the slow motion, regardless of development, heavy rainfall is possible over portions of Central America and southern Mexico. Please consult products from your local meteorological service for more information. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent. Forecaster Beven/Latto

Tropical?

Unless we’re talking snow