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WxWatcher007

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Everything posted by WxWatcher007

  1. WxWatcher007
    I won’t lie I’ll look casually but there are no expectations. The basin is going to provide plenty of other red meat the next two weeks.
  2. WxWatcher007
    Well the ensemble guidance is split and the hurricane track models to loop it. It probably is a shell of itself if it happens before a trough kicks it.
  3. WxWatcher007
    Yeah, I was out of the loop
  4. WxWatcher007
    Exactly.
  5. WxWatcher007
  6. WxWatcher007
    It looks like there’s a strong TC genesis signal suggesting long track potential in the MDR, but honestly, given how the models have struggled so much with the steering pattern for Franklin and now with Idalia’s long term track I don’t put a lot of stock in having any sense of steering for maybe another week.
  7. WxWatcher007
    Haven’t looked much, but I’m not sure what to make of the model confusion over Idalia’s long term track yet.
  8. WxWatcher007
    The thing I’m proudest of honestly is the pattern recognition. I first highlighted on August 16 that the highest potential of all the potential areas of activity was with the CAG. On August 18 I first said I thought something would develop with a land threat the last week of August. The first advisory came on August 26. Not being a met, it’s a source of pride to be a competent tropical watcher/forecaster. Now to the point where I can effectively chase.
  9. WxWatcher007
    WxWatcher007 Peak Season Forecast (Aug 20-Oct 20) Named Storms: 13 (5) Hurricanes: 6 (2) Major Hurricanes: 3 (2) Emily, Franklin (MH), Gert, Harold, Idalia (MH)
  10. WxWatcher007
    What a day. Will get to videos tomorrow. Incredible stuff.
  11. WxWatcher007
    Nice job. Always look forward to your thoughts. Although the center was just to my SE it worked out perfectly because I got the mean part of the eyewall. Never seen lightning like that in an eyewall and literally heard no thunder. Will get to videos tomorrow. Think it was higher than that but good stuff regardless. Laura was in a different class. What was the landfall pressure? I got down to 960.1.
  12. WxWatcher007
    Thanks. I had to drive south for signal. Damage was bad between Perry and Steinhatchee, and gradually improved further south. How did you make it out? Hope all is well with you and your family.
  13. WxWatcher007
    Will get to more videos later but this was basically the storm in a nutshell. I was safe. Really.
  14. WxWatcher007
    Will get to more videos later but this was basically the storm in a nutshell. I was safe. Really.
  15. WxWatcher007
    I so so appreciate your support. These chases are the toughest challenge, and you help make it easier. I owe you a dinner or two when I’m back in DC.
  16. WxWatcher007
    Absolutely insane stuff.
  17. WxWatcher007
  18. WxWatcher007
    I’m ok. Very bad signal. Absolutely extraordinary eyewall in Perry. Extensive tree damage and significant roof damage throughout the area. Not just uprooted, snapped in half. Incredible lightning as well. It was insane. Will post more when I can.
  19. WxWatcher007
    Lightning here
  20. WxWatcher007
    Branches and siding coming off before the eyewall.
  21. WxWatcher007
    Things picking up quickly here. Pressure falling as winds come up.
  22. WxWatcher007
  23. WxWatcher007
    Not terribly windy here yet. Pressure falling steadily though.
  24. WxWatcher007
  25. WxWatcher007
    Need to wrap that around
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