WxWatcher007

So far so good with my peak season forecast…

Flatlined as expected after Erin. What’s really interesting though is that this has been a multi-year global trend. The basins have struggled. WPAC in particular.

Low of 45.6°

That’s a truly unacceptable loss

Yep…just one factor. I don’t think 2025 for my period of expected activity is quite as favorable as 2024.

1.80 3 day total

Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 PM EDT Sat Sep 6 2025 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America: Tropical Atlantic: A tropical wave over the central tropical Atlantic is producing a limited amount of shower activity. Development of this system is not expected while the system moves westward at 10 to 15 mph. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...low...near 0 percent. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi/Kelly

Some of my best shots have come from positions I was just playing around with, but here’s a more traditional shot.

Nammy did good...Nammy did good.

Meh.

To be clear 91L still has a chance. I’m more skeptical about a CAG especially mid month. That’s outside of climatology as @GaWx has noted. Late month and especially into October is prime time for that though. Anyone thinking we’re in for a quiet season because of conditions currently should look at what was posted earlier. This decade especially has been known for strongly backloaded seasons.

Good point—there was also a pretty big fail on genesis with Fernand.

My thought hasn’t changed on that so far. Although I was on board with 91L developing, I still think the basin overall will continue to be hostile until mid September or more likely after the 20th.

I was on board with that developing like the guidance lol, but I didn’t expect the lid to come off until after the 20th. Just a hostile basin rn.

Nah, Martin Park is fine lol. I used to fly kites there as a kid. Great River Park is probably my favorite. The area down by Goodwin University is good too with open river views. Also, you can never go wrong with Wickham Park, which extends into both East Hartford and Manchester.

Step down of yore

I think all the model chaos just speaks to the uncertainty around if/when/where 91L develops. Everything kind of flows from there so an error in the short term means dramatically different outcomes in the long term.

Yes ensembles are the way to go (for the lurkers) and even now the models have limited deterministic value. Just want to see 1) how strong this gets before the Antilles and 2) the strength of the ridge.

Starting to see the wave more clearly consolidate now. Should become an invest today if that trend continues imo.

East Hartford is home. It gets a bad rap from some because during and after WWII it grew exponentially and most of the agricultural land became housing and apartments that until recently haven’t really been redeveloped and modernized. The town basically fully built out by the 70s and had some bad commercial owners. Most of EH is actually really suburban outside of the main travel corridors.

An aunt that lived in Columbia at the time would tell us about how Hugo shook the lines more than they had ever seen.

That wave coming off further south likely saved it from SAL and getting ripped apart by the TUTT. I’m still deeply skeptical it’ll make the trek across the basin but kind of as I expected, the steering pattern is becoming more conducive again for EC potential as we move into mid-September. Edit to add: This is where I’d perk up if we had homebrew off the EC or even moreso if it came out of the Caribbean.

I do think the steering pattern gets more “favorable” in the extended with ridging returning, but I’m not sure that’s in time for whatever pops from this current cherry in the tropical Atlantic.

Antilles notwithstanding, this looks like fish food to me.

Might be a little later, but it's coming. Nothing has changed my thought that the second half of September (most likely after 9/20) through mid-October is active with TC genesis favorability gradually translating west in line with climo.