bristolri_wx

Finally feels like October out there... refreshing...

It’s those November tropical downpours we are used to seeing here in New England lol…

Even though he’s full of it these days, Joe Bastardi did have a good tagline at the end of his videos when he worked for Accuweather. ”Enjoy the weather, it’s the only weather you‘ve got.”

Fact: pets and children do not give-a-shit about daylight savings or standard time.

Euro and GFS look amazingly similar on this one at the moment…

Live from my living room...

I've had to turn on the heat for about 3 hours since Oct 1. Insanity. Always makes you worry that things may balance out in the next few months, just like the drought...

Agreed. It does seem to be a volatile model. It fluctuates from week to week, and I also noticed the changes recently. There must be some sort of value to the model, but it may take some nuance to get the best forecasting value out of it. I know I haven't figured it out yet...

The Panic Room thread usually gets created on Dec 1. LMAO…

This was interesting... https://www.severe-weather.eu/long-range-2/winter-season-2022-2023-forecast-october-update-united-states-canada-europe-fa/

So who is good IYO? It was a question geared towards anyone who wanted to answer... and we know the answer is not "Joe Bastardi" lol...

Just him? I see others discussed but sometimes it’s by initials or partial names. Just curious…

Sooooo… how about them cold temps this morning?

Who are the recommended forecasters to follow outside of this forum for long range/winter forecasts?

You must not come here often...

The 0z 840 HR GEFS looks a lot better than the CFS weeklies in the mid-to-late November time frame. The CFS looked a lot better last week. (Going by what's available on Tropical Tidbits). Interesting to see the differences between the two...

Neat! I found this to be notable as well: "The upgrades in the data assimilation system are accomplished by improving the use of existing observations, adding newly available observations, enhancing Near Sea Surface temperature (NSST) analysis, and bug fixes." One of the data assimilation items on there was increased input of high latitude wind data from satellites. Wonder if that might help with the winter storm forecasts with those waves that roll out of northwest Canada that we are always waiting to be "sampled"...

These are fantastic!

Didn't realize the title of this thread changed to "COVID OBS/DISC"... Guess I'm going to AmericanMedicine.com for the weather discussions there.

Noticed on Tropical Tidbits an alert about ECMWF super computer upgrades. Found this interesting article: https://www.ecmwf.int/en/about/media-centre/news/2022/taking-ecmwfs-new-high-performance-computing-facility-operation Looks like software/model upgrades to follow the hardware upgrades being done now.

You should! It's quite easy to self-publish these days - especially if you're not looking to make a living at it.

With that storm coming up the coast, Sunday evening definitely looks like an oxford shirt with slacks kind of day. Might even go to bed early so I can get my eight hours of sleep. . . . . . (Definitely wanted to work slacks into the conversation and stay on topic, though I'm not sure what the topic is at this point.)

I will assume all the costs involved with that person being an employee of Beasley. So payroll taxes, benefits, etc. Anything the company would have paid as their share of hiring an employee full time. They are being d#$cks about it, and saying we are not footing 1 cent of the bill for this person to remain on the payroll. A literal "you want him, you pay for him!"