bristolri_wx

It would be interesting for someone to do a case study on the accuracy of model forecasts for these shortwaves that originate in areas with lower amounts of sample data. My totally half-assed ignorant theory is that as the model resolution has increased over the last few years, paired with the faster flow we've had, it causes more run-to-run inconsistencies on the operational models for these types of storms. If the flow was a little slower, there would be time of the physics to catch up to the shortwaves as they develop and provide a more consistent forecast. We often do not get consensus on the info we need to determine snowfall amounts until a day or two before because many of the storms that have been happening over the last few years have been fast movers. Not a lot of systems stalling and/or phasing, and when they do, they are usually modeled better. The older lower resolution models may have been less sensitive to this problem, though may have not generated a more accurate forecasts, just one that was more consistently wrong until go time. And as usual, we are often talking about differences in tracks of 50 or 100 miles to determine snow amounts, which is more difficult to pin down compared to just plain rain during other parts of the year.

My lord, Zoloft should buy a sponsorship on this thread. Hopefully one of those shortwave hits. Patience…

So I made some adjustments to the web site where it's easier to quickly view totals: https://newenglandsnowfallrecords.blogspot.com/ I removed the individual reports and made the individual pages on the Google Sheet visible for viewing. Also, I made changes to the custom Google Map so that the current total shows up as the label for each reporting location. I know that there will be situations where we get a "trace" of snow in the future. For record keeping purposes, if you want to enter trace amounts when they fall, enter them as 0.01. Throwing text into the form and the spreadsheet will break the math formulas doing the totals.

“Your local forecast from the National Weather Service.”

@40/70 Benchmark, @tavwtby check your PM for form links.

Most of December looks decent unless we get a big cutter...

Snowfall totals are submitted using the entry form. No one has access to edit the spreadsheet directly. Keeps the spreadsheet in pristine condition by making it read only (I have some experience with this). If something needs to be fixed because it was entered incorrectly, you can PM me and I can adjust it, though it will be when I have free time to take care of it. I went back through all my PM's and other than one new one from today, I have replied back with everyone's snowfall submission form links.

Might be a little too new to do that just yet. The documentation for using their API's needs to get added into the training so they can understand when queried. A fully trained programmer familiar with Google Cloud could probably figure it out. That is not I.

Would love to figure out how to run the latest Google weather models but above my level in programming, and there's costs involved. These are supposedly the most advanced AI based weather models available.

@moneypitmike and @Dan check your PM for links.

Climo is still really against us in coastal plain first two weeks of December.

Outbursts are so common on a snow storm thread it's hard to see the sarcasm through the snow...

Not going great, but a little early to give up on it. I would at least wait until Monday morning. Unless you are referring to something else...

Not really seeing "rains to Maine" on that GFS run except for extreme coast.

It wouldn't shock me, the GEFS have been SE of the op for many runs...

Hard for me to get excited about this storm for anyone in New England just yet. We are still a couple of days from the southern component of this storm from forming, and there's still three different camps of thought on how it develops and tracks. I feel like Sunday morning is when we will get some consensus, when we start to get into the range of the high-res models sorting things out. That being said I feel like there's more of a chance of this storm being suppressed and progressive and missing most of the area instead of it being overly amped and flooding New England with cold rain. I don't think the SE ridge is going to be the main influence on this storm...

God NAMMIT!

I feel like the weighted blend right now would be 75% Euro, 25% GFS, only because there's more modeling supporting the Euro right now.

Agreed. Especially where I am it's not going to be beefy one way or the other unless you thread the needle. However, any thing that helps with keeping it snow longer will help. A flatter look means less rain for most.

It was farther south and east until hour 99 than the 12z run, then it became more amped than 12z from hr 102 forward. My guess is GFS goes back SE at 00z run...

18z GFS has been drinking. You don't want to discount it as a possibility, but, with the accuracy of the GFS in our next of the woods recently and it not being part of the consensus guidance, I'm hesitant to believe that track as well.

Only a thousand mile difference at H5... plus GFS is 12 hrs faster...

00z GFS rolling in. Will we see 60"+ somewhere on this run? Or 6" of rain?

I really need to setup my YouTube channel again that was broadcasting this 24x7 lol...

IMO - ANY significant snow before January 1 is always a pleasant surprise down here in the coastal plain, next to the bay. Too many things working against us early in the Winter. A couple of inches of slop will be a positive...