bristolri_wx

https://community.aarp.org/t5/Retirement/ct-p/WorkandRetirement

My two cents (and maybe not even worth that) - however this winter turns out, there should be confidence that it will be different than last year. Whether that ends up being more snow or more cold remains to be seen. What we do know is that from June until now, we’ve been in a much different pattern compared to last year. Maybe we end up both warmer and snowier thanks to the way things end up falling into place. If we “rat” I bet it will be in an entirely different way than 2022-2023. Not basing this on lots of numbers, just observation and common sense that this years atmospheric chaos seems to be a lot different than last years atmospheric chaos. We shall see!

All dynasties end like this. It is what it is.

I fully admit it’s nice to see blue spots on the GFS and Euro reappearing on their Continental US precip maps, even if it’s not near us. Beautiful night for a dog walk tonight down here. Enjoy it while you can.

Hope those beers were really really good.

I can see it.. I can smell it…

Watching the Pats game will not add to its perfection.

Plans are already made, should be possible:

Current radar loop looks cool… rain moving in three different directions. South from NH/VT, east over MA, WNW over CT and RI.

No one likes it, except ODB…

Who's working the Massachusetts border preventing that rain from moving north? Don't think I've ever seen it that close to following a border like that lol.

Short term another win for the GFS. May be too dry for tomorrow though.

True. But all the meso models are wetter than the GFS. GFS is kind of on its own at the moment, and even the 18z ensembles were wetter than the operational run. Common sense forecast: most likely not as juicy as the NAM 3K and not as dry as the GFS. Somewhere in the middle is the answer, though my gut feeling is that the mesos are picking something up that the GFS isn't seeing...

I was curious and did some research. Tapatalk was re-purchased by the founder. Probably good news for the app. Almost all the forums that are removing support are owned by a company called Verticalscope which apparently have bought up thousands of forum sites on the internet over the last decade. They also own the forum hosting software XenForo, and the competing app to Tapatalk, Fora. Looks more like this Verticalscope company looking for an opportunity to consolidate than issues with Tapatalk. Apparently almost the same message verbatim was posted in most forums, which made some people suspicious.

Kevin did, but I don't think you got my joke anyway

If you think it sucks up in Northern New England, how do you think I feel here in RI with GRAY foliage!

GFS and Euro continue to generate something off the Florida coast and kick it north-northeast up the coast. Supported in the ensembles as well. Doesn't look like it gets too organized yet. Something to watch since it's so close by...

Lots of dry air being pulled in from the NW below 5000 feet.

So much for that modeled NW hook/tug. Entirely gone from guidance… due north it is.

GFS/GEFS did a good job on this one, but if it ever gets a hurricane track 15 days out it’s pure luck. However it has been in the ballpark and not waivered as much as the Euro throughout Lee’s existence. Score 1 for the Americans!!

In weather model news, Pivotal has the new RRFS, which is replacing the RAP and HRRR sometime in the next year or so: https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=rrfs_a Doesn't look like it's consistently getting data as of yet...

This could be a major concern in eastern facing areas, especially along the coast of Maine. Even though this will be nor'easter strength when it's decaying east of Maine Lee's remnants will probably have more ability to generate coastal flooding because of its strength and size before it begins to wind down. This is probably of more significance than wherever Lee's remnants make landfall.

Took me 15 minutes to figure out WTF this guy was talking about in relation to Tropical Tidbits. To think in my younger days I would watch the Long Ranger on Accuweather Pro to get his opinions, lol...