bristolri_wx

Yeah models kind have already busted positive a little for eastern areas. Radar looks active for most off the morning too. Subsidence has taken on a more north/south rather than east/west orientation.

HREF looks wet for central and western new england through Tuesday (12z means some of this has fallen already).

Trending higher QPF every 12 hours...

Because you keep saying to toss it.

Looking like .50 to 1.00" of rain through Monday morning on the ensembles and the NBM. Trend is moving the heavier precip east at the moment. Saturday evening into Sunday seems to be the target this weekend.

Beautiful out there. No swamp ass today!

Good day for yard work. At least for those that are fat and out of shape like myself. First cut of the year completed.

Thunderstein!!

The difference between NH and East Bay RI. Trees are beginning to leaf out. Daffodils, cherry tree and forsythia flowers for a couple of weeks.

Any chance we will dry and blow enough to clear out all my cherry tree blossoms? They all came down at once. looks like 2” of pink snow.

Ah yes, the 2 minutes it takes to reply while reading other posts and catching up on models and such… the anger consumes me. I have a wall in my basement dedicated to printing out your misguided forecasts interspersed with the word DAMAGE! in different fonts. Better get that restraining order!

I’m sorry I call bullshit. If this was an example of morning showers, 8 hours of dry, then evening showers, then sure. But that’s not what this is. Some areas are getting several hours of rain, a short break, and then more rain. Maybe some are getting a slightly longer break than others. Almost no one is saying “I should have had that BBQ today, it stopped raining for an hour.” It’s not a total washout but an inch to an inch and a half of rain over a 24 hour stretch with a few short breaks in between - no normal person is calling today being forecasted as a “rainy day” a bust. My son is 9 and he called it a rainy day when discussing going outside. A 9 year old…

Still looking like an inch of rain Sat/Sun. Globals (a bit less) vs Mesos (a bit more).

What model or forecast is currently showing this? The trend/convergence has been for about 1" - 1.5" of rain regionwide for the last 24 hours or so...

SREF looks wet through Monday for most...

At least the CANSIPS shows the expected variability of temps/weather. I’ve found the CFS is always too warm, even when it’s correct on it being warm, and it doesn’t show much below average anomalies. Even in a climate where we expect places to be warmer, there is usually places that end up cooler as well. The CANSIPS seems to illustrate that premise.

The CFS thinks the earth is on fire all the time. CANSIPS DJF 25/26:

The 18z operational runs already cut back on the precip as well.

In all fairness the operational runs at 12z were all much juicier than their ensembles. Ensembles show around 1" of rain through Monday morning. Neither Stein nor Noah on the way...

Sounds good to me. I’m fond of the coc but not of the swamp ass. I’ll take high 70’s and low 80’s with dews in the 50’s and low 60’s every day.

Next year I’m posting a “count down to swamp ass” thread. This year it was April 17.

Not trying to provoke anyone but where is this warmth after the 20th? Was looking at the ensembles and doesn't look like anything more than a day or two above before back to normal or below for a couple of days. Looks more like a roller coaster in temps. Am I missing something?

Terrible out here in East Bay RI and SE MA. Cloudy rainy, drizzle, 40. Plus every store is jammed up more than usual since no one wants to be outside.

I’m more in your camp than Kevin’s but I feel like I need to see how summer and fall play out to buy in. That cooler and drier pattern locked in for about 5 months before letting up this past year. If it’s warm and wet for several months going into November and will take more than models and analogs to buy in. I’m not going on anything other than it looks like we could be in a warm wet pattern for a while over the next several months, which shouldn’t be an influence on the upcoming Winter… but…

Stein slowly but steadily fading away...