Agreed. Especially where I am it's not going to be beefy one way or the other unless you thread the needle. However, any thing that helps with keeping it snow longer will help. A flatter look means less rain for most.
It was farther south and east until hour 99 than the 12z run, then it became more amped than 12z from hr 102 forward. My guess is GFS goes back SE at 00z run...
18z GFS has been drinking.
You don't want to discount it as a possibility, but, with the accuracy of the GFS in our next of the woods recently and it not being part of the consensus guidance, I'm hesitant to believe that track as well.
IMO - ANY significant snow before January 1 is always a pleasant surprise down here in the coastal plain, next to the bay. Too many things working against us early in the Winter. A couple of inches of slop will be a positive...
It's always interesting when the CFS monthly is out of sync with the weekly version of itself. December looks much better on the weeklies than the monthly one that @40/70 Benchmark showed. Euro weekly backs it up. Never confident in these long term models but it's nice to see the signal getting better as we get closer to December rather than the other way around. Hopefully it's not hallucinating.
I did! But unfortunately work has been very busy, and November is also a busy family month (wife's birthday, wedding anniversary, son's birthday). I plan on adding this weekend. Thankfully everyone can retroactively add snow reports when needed.
Do not submit your accumulations with the inches (") symbol. It converts the entry from a number to plain text in the Google Sheet. This then breaks the "sum" formula adding up the totals.
Some of theory has merit. It’s however just one factor among many.
For those that like snow I personally still feel confident that for most of New England that this season will be better than the last few. Doesn’t mean it will be much better. The long range models continue to have a favorable pattern at 500mb look overall for the winter months. We just need some luck, which has also been lacking last new winters.
If you move up to 850mb the CanSIPS and CFS aren't that different considering what you would expect from a long range forecast. Canada looks cold from December through March, and 500mb heights in Western NA are above normal, which is about the best you can hope for these days.