bristolri_wx

“Your local forecast from the National Weather Service.”

@40/70 Benchmark, @tavwtby check your PM for form links.

Most of December looks decent unless we get a big cutter...

Snowfall totals are submitted using the entry form. No one has access to edit the spreadsheet directly. Keeps the spreadsheet in pristine condition by making it read only (I have some experience with this). If something needs to be fixed because it was entered incorrectly, you can PM me and I can adjust it, though it will be when I have free time to take care of it. I went back through all my PM's and other than one new one from today, I have replied back with everyone's snowfall submission form links.

Might be a little too new to do that just yet. The documentation for using their API's needs to get added into the training so they can understand when queried. A fully trained programmer familiar with Google Cloud could probably figure it out. That is not I.

Would love to figure out how to run the latest Google weather models but above my level in programming, and there's costs involved. These are supposedly the most advanced AI based weather models available.

@moneypitmike and @Dan check your PM for links.

Climo is still really against us in coastal plain first two weeks of December.

Outbursts are so common on a snow storm thread it's hard to see the sarcasm through the snow...

Not going great, but a little early to give up on it. I would at least wait until Monday morning. Unless you are referring to something else...

Not really seeing "rains to Maine" on that GFS run except for extreme coast.

It wouldn't shock me, the GEFS have been SE of the op for many runs...

Hard for me to get excited about this storm for anyone in New England just yet. We are still a couple of days from the southern component of this storm from forming, and there's still three different camps of thought on how it develops and tracks. I feel like Sunday morning is when we will get some consensus, when we start to get into the range of the high-res models sorting things out. That being said I feel like there's more of a chance of this storm being suppressed and progressive and missing most of the area instead of it being overly amped and flooding New England with cold rain. I don't think the SE ridge is going to be the main influence on this storm...

God NAMMIT!

I feel like the weighted blend right now would be 75% Euro, 25% GFS, only because there's more modeling supporting the Euro right now.

Agreed. Especially where I am it's not going to be beefy one way or the other unless you thread the needle. However, any thing that helps with keeping it snow longer will help. A flatter look means less rain for most.

It was farther south and east until hour 99 than the 12z run, then it became more amped than 12z from hr 102 forward. My guess is GFS goes back SE at 00z run...

18z GFS has been drinking. You don't want to discount it as a possibility, but, with the accuracy of the GFS in our next of the woods recently and it not being part of the consensus guidance, I'm hesitant to believe that track as well.

Only a thousand mile difference at H5... plus GFS is 12 hrs faster...

00z GFS rolling in. Will we see 60"+ somewhere on this run? Or 6" of rain?

I really need to setup my YouTube channel again that was broadcasting this 24x7 lol...

IMO - ANY significant snow before January 1 is always a pleasant surprise down here in the coastal plain, next to the bay. Too many things working against us early in the Winter. A couple of inches of slop will be a positive...

This one is like watching porn... https://www.jdjweatherconsulting.com/sne-14-15

@dryslot @AstronomyEnjoyer @CoastalWx check personal messages for form links. I think I'm up to date with everyone's requests.

It's always interesting when the CFS monthly is out of sync with the weekly version of itself. December looks much better on the weeklies than the monthly one that @40/70 Benchmark showed. Euro weekly backs it up. Never confident in these long term models but it's nice to see the signal getting better as we get closer to December rather than the other way around. Hopefully it's not hallucinating.