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Everything posted by bristolri_wx

  1. I have but it's still speculation at this point. More than likely it will come to fruition but things can also change quickly. Regardless I think many of replying are in agreement that now is the time to fill up, if you can, because it doesn't look like prices will get much better in the Winter months and will most likely get worse.
  2. I would also agree on filling now. While it's tough to get projections on propane, fuel costs are expected to rise this winter. Gasoline is falling right now, but only because refineries are finally catching up with demand and the markets have priced the Ukraine war into oil based commodities by now. Europe not buying Russian natural gas is a huge wildcard at the moment that could have some chain reactions. It's kind of unprecedented...
  3. This isn’t the first time we have heard unforecasted dry air as the reason for a busted modeled forecast. Are they taking feature requests at NOAA/NCEP?
  4. Yup, it's drying out on the HRRR as well. Each run since 00z has been less... grrr...
  5. I’m feeling bullish on rain tomorrow. Good chances for up to 1” east of the CT river, though there will be pockets of winners and losers like in any good coastal we get. Not surprising we get an anomalous low, during an anomalous pattern, during an anomalous drought. We’re due!
  6. Article is from June but interesting to get some background on upgraded compute for NOAA models: https://www.noaa.gov/news-release/us-supercomputers-for-weather-and-climate-forecasts-get-major-bump
  7. Next 35 days on the GFS Ensemble 00z 8/13 Run...
  8. While the 18z Euro doesn't go far enough out, you can definitely see signifigantly less precipitation south of New England on HR 90. Could be nothing... or something got ingested into the 18z models that dried things out for us...
  9. Drought is weather. And parts of the region are in severe drought, my locale included. The stein meme adds some humor to the discussion but people still are concerned about their gardens, lawns, and trees being stressed by the lack of rain. So yes, we would still care without Mr. Stein… IMO…
  10. Ooohhhh… two more chances… caught this cool cloud formation as well right around sunset walking the dog.
  11. Finally something got through! Came right through town had down ours for 30-45 minutes. Probably around .50”. EDIT: All stations around me are reporting between 1.25” and 1.50”. Just what we needed!
  12. LOL… gotta love those storms just dying at the RI border every time. It’s like they don’t want to pay those tolls!
  13. not sure if this is what you are looking for… https://www.ospo.noaa.gov/Products/ocean/sst/anomaly/
  14. Terrible… and HRRR was no better until about 2 hours until heavier precip was supposed to move in.
  15. I know, I know... I was being sarcastic there... based on some historical posts in this months thread. That being said, I do remember some one or two week streaks of the HHH's, even if the temps weren't always maxing. This summer has been providing us with noticeable breaks, which is nice, at least IMO.
  16. Yes the ensembles are pointing in that direction as well. One thing to consider that the models haven't been picking up in the extended long range are the "breaks" like today with slightly cooler temps and dew points between the HHH's. Still don't see a "straight through to October" scenario coming as some may have been hoping. Every time you see that unfold on the models in the long range it disappears into some moderating frontal passages in the medium-short range.
  17. Well that sucked. Just totally hit a wall and completely dissipated… dang…
  18. Hey I just want some measurable rain . Is that too much to ask for lol?
  19. I would gladly take severe rain since I have a hayfield in most of my yard at the moment. It ain’t pretty… reservoirs could use a good drink too.
  20. It’s like they are reading this thread at BOX… 645 PM Update: Activity has certainly been less than impressive so far, but we are still seeing scattered thunderstorms across interior SNE tonight with some additional activity trying to get going across RI. Environment remains favorable for thunderstorms tonight with plenty of instability, effective shear, and marginal mid level lapse rates. So why the lack of storms? We think it may be related to the storms that tracked through NYC and Long Island earlier today, which effectively robbed the moisture that was available to feed the storms in our area. That, plus some low and mid level drying behind pre-frontal trough, were probably the main reasons. Going forward, we still expect to see scattered showers/storms tonight ahead of cold front, especially since environmental parameters remain favorable. Some storms could briefly pulse up and become severe, or we may also see small bows or line segments with potential for localized wind damage. Otherwise, wind shift to the NW behind the front which should usher in MUCH drier air for the late-evening/overnight period. Dewpoints upper 50s to lower 60s should be more common in the interior and coastal plain, with lower to mid 60s across the south coast, Cape and Islands by daybreak. Lows to range from the mid 50s to lower 60s north and west of I-95, to the mid to upper 60s across southeast New England.
  21. Heard the rumbles of thunder as the storms passed by 15 miles to the north. Sun is out at the moment so maybe some brief heat up of the atmosphere can let that last line move though here with at least some rain!
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