bristolri_wx

I've been reading the AFD's for 25 years... even for a pedestrian storm like this one (pedestrian as in not record breaking), you would get a descriptive update every 4-6 hours in the past. Even the 7:24 PM update that @kdxken pointed out earlier, if you select the "highlight changed discussion feature" the only part that changed was the aviation forecast. That means that's mostly the same forecast from 2:30, and before that, the other significant update was 3:30 am. That's essentially only 2 major updates in 24 hours. I guess my overall point is that the lack of updates is noticeable, and disappointing, for whatever the reason is that's causing the reduction.....

We can agree to disagree. It has less to do with this storm and more to do with receiving a service we used to get regardless of the weather. I enjoy reading the AFD, maybe I’m the only one.

AFD’s are issued regardless of the weather. Have you read one? They used to be issued every 6 hours or so and more often when weather warranted it. That no longer seems to be the case. The storm isn’t severe, but it’s still nice to get the latest thoughts about it from professionals. Changes in winds, qpf, etc… AFD’s also contain latest marine and aviation discussions, which matter to those who need them, even if it’s not me. There could be 50-75 mph gusts out over open waters…

HRRR totals and wind gusts at height of storm. Good soak for RI and SE MA. Winds aren’t too bad. Maybe we can get a similar setup in Jan or Feb with one of these.

Last BOX AFD was 3AM. Sad sad sad… while this storm is pretty mediocre it’s nice to get professionally prepared info on the storm as it evolves.

Sure they are available at troll-tiger.com

You should upgrade your computer so you can post more than one frame/month of the CFS.

Because of the forecast on October 26?

The Euro isn’t the only model to show multiple lows. I think I saw the NAM 3k and a few others with a similar look with their 6z runs.

Models are still all over the place on this one. Seems like the multiple low scenario is really throwing a wrench into consensus. If we avoid the dual low setup should be a windier/wetter setup for most. Otherwise that second low farther off shore robs a lot of the energy to the east and also brings more dry air into the mix. Maybe we will have more data by 12z/18z to see which setup will win out.

I've been wanting to join but always forgot. I liked looking at the site info. That being said, I'm not 100% familiar with how it worked. Is this something that could be duplicated with a Google Sheet, now that Kevin W's site has been retired?

Looks like a decent soak for most 1/2” - 3/4” and maybe about an inch in isolated spots.

Not sure if this is the right place to post this question, but how does the drought in areas of NNE affect snow making if you don’t make up some of the deficits by mid November?

CANSIPS and CFS Monthly runs continue to look like a favorable pattern for DJFM. Ridges in the west, below normal cold in Canada, etc. That's all you can ask for at this time range.

The last six weeks has been amazing stretch of nice weather. Wondering when this pattern changes. Can’t complain when the +10 is 77.

Torrential here for last 45 minutes…

September and October are the best months to get the +5 to +10 temps.

Finally some rain and thunder moving in. Been dry here could use it!

Looks like it’s going to miss down here. . Line running out of gas near the south coastal areas…

True but a trough is going to not be stationary for the entire winter. The signs that a trough in the eastern US could be the dominant pattern is what is promising. We have cutters blow by in many of our highest snowfall winters. Not every storm is going to be a 40/70 special…

@Damage In Tolland all the climate models right now are pointing to some sort of ridge out west dominating the weather this winter. Even the CFS which tends to torch Canada more than reality. Not sure I buy into the “big” winter scenarios but good chance it should be better this year compared to last 3.

Probably not. We could have an Octnodecufebrarch thread as well.