bristolri_wx

I’m not really caring about clown maps but I am caring about this: https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs-ens&region=namer&pkg=T850a&runtime=2024112806&fh=6 Look at Canada. That’s 384 hours of ensemble showing mostly below normal or normal temp anomalies at 850. Yes the Pacific drives the bus, but Canada provides the passengers. The last two winters there has not been a consistent normal to below normal cold source region in Canada to help us with the precip down here. I can count on least 5 or 6 storms discussed here where we saw favorable setups near the bench mark and ended up with slop and rain instead of snow due to thermals. We would see weeks of +10 anomolies NW of us. It only takes one or two degrees of thermal difference to go from boom to bust for snow accumulations in New England. Getting Canada colder means more chances for us. While this could all end up dry and boring, it is very encouraging. More so than the last couple of seasons and in December, which have been ratters in recent memory for most in SNE. I would expect you would be able to see these differences as well. Happy Thanksgiving and let’s all be thankful for some potential to cash in after the last couple of seasons of mostly boredom.

All the high dewpoints he roots for all summer has caused black brain mold. He’s just not himself. He’s been Torch-ed!

This isn’t a a criticism by any means, though it come off as one in written form, but just an observation: It seems like a lot of the discussion posts had stricter moderation in the past, and a lot of what stays now used to be moved into the banter forums. It also doesn’t help that we have had a number of shitty winters since the jackpot of 2014-2015. It’s hard to get good moderators these days that have the time to keep the threads organized. There’s a lot of good content here. Just ignore or block the trolling. Don’t think I could give up this place either.

Just nice to be tracking colder patterns and possible storms this early in the season, a big contrast to the last two. It’s always better when Canada isn’t torching.

Great read as always.

How far back are you going on these November’s that feature snow? The climate record says otherwise:

Make sense, since neither does cold November rain…

Thought of at @Damage In Tolland while reading this in the BOX discussion… Our forestry partners at CT DEEP have requested a special weather statement for elevated fire weather concerns in Hartford and Tolland Counties. We plan on reaching out to our forestry and fire weather partners in RI and MA for their input and a possible special weather statement for those states as well.

Ha, Bastardi forecasted below normal snowfall in the Northeast! When’s the last time that happened? Could be best the omen yet that maybe this winter won’t suck as much as last winter. Sure a broken clock gets it right twice a day but it’s still wrong the other 23:58!!

Yeah I was in Boston today on Newbury St. Felt warmer than that. It was beautiful.

What a nice Coctober day it was! My lawn is brown in spots but only because I had not cut most of it since July 2! It was taller than the dog in a few spots lol…

Been reading up, and it seems like following outcome for this winter based on the data so far - in general terms: - Likely overall to be above normal temps, below normal snow. - Greater chances of a bigger storm or two to setup due to pattern, thank last year. - Greater chances of more arctic cold outbreaks than last year. So a good chance it will be better than last year, but need some luck for it to be much better.

Yeah no longer heading up the coast on the GFS and Euro. Heading NW and merging into a low near Iowa instead lol. Still a long way to go...

This storm/pattern would have been perfect in mid January. I’m sure we will have a Bermuda high then!

We are in a rain delay here in Burrilville with our Labor Day festivities… torrential…

Got hit pretty good in Bristol. Flash flood warning now as the heavy stuff was overhead for a while. Some small hail in places.

Round 3 has arrived.

In the northeast part of town there were two rounds of hail and some wind gusts that may have been down bursts. Parents have some tree damage at their house and in their neighborhood. That cell drifted ESE into Swansea/Somerset/Fall River area.

Hailing in Bristol, that doesn't happen often. Cell developed right over the area.

That’s was a surprisingly strong cell that blew through here.

Enjoying the COC at Lower Falls on the Kancamagus earlier. 73/53. Was 66 at the pass as we drive through with windows down. Not a drop of sweat to be found in the nether-regions. Now grabbing pizza in Lincoln before the long drive home. The perfect summer day.

I’m pro interesting/exciting weather but anti crotch rot. Not sure dewpoints are as exciting as tornados and hurricanes unless you get a rise out of me showering twice a day.

Only a storm named Debby would have this wind field…

Why is this something to celebrate?