bristolri_wx

Of course. Short days and low sun angle enhance the dark web this time of year!

Blood of Christ. Plenty of it.

I’ve been recently taken an interest in the 00z 840 HR GEFS ensemble runs that are available on TT. They are usually a day behind to complete. IMO, not as good as the Euro weeklies but better than the CFS weeklies. They might have even been more into this cold anomaly setup earlier than the others. Most of the output can be separated into 5 day intervals. Not sure how others (especially mets) feel about it…

Funny I thought of two siblings picking on each other at home - “Mom!! Nicole is being a dick!”

Yup, that's some on the NAM. 925 MB winds look aggressive for coastal plain.

Finally feels like October out there... refreshing...

It’s those November tropical downpours we are used to seeing here in New England lol…

Even though he’s full of it these days, Joe Bastardi did have a good tagline at the end of his videos when he worked for Accuweather. ”Enjoy the weather, it’s the only weather you‘ve got.”

Fact: pets and children do not give-a-shit about daylight savings or standard time.

Euro and GFS look amazingly similar on this one at the moment…

Live from my living room...

I've had to turn on the heat for about 3 hours since Oct 1. Insanity. Always makes you worry that things may balance out in the next few months, just like the drought...

Agreed. It does seem to be a volatile model. It fluctuates from week to week, and I also noticed the changes recently. There must be some sort of value to the model, but it may take some nuance to get the best forecasting value out of it. I know I haven't figured it out yet...

The Panic Room thread usually gets created on Dec 1. LMAO…

This was interesting... https://www.severe-weather.eu/long-range-2/winter-season-2022-2023-forecast-october-update-united-states-canada-europe-fa/

So who is good IYO? It was a question geared towards anyone who wanted to answer... and we know the answer is not "Joe Bastardi" lol...

Just him? I see others discussed but sometimes it’s by initials or partial names. Just curious…

Sooooo… how about them cold temps this morning?

Who are the recommended forecasters to follow outside of this forum for long range/winter forecasts?

You must not come here often...

The 0z 840 HR GEFS looks a lot better than the CFS weeklies in the mid-to-late November time frame. The CFS looked a lot better last week. (Going by what's available on Tropical Tidbits). Interesting to see the differences between the two...

Neat! I found this to be notable as well: "The upgrades in the data assimilation system are accomplished by improving the use of existing observations, adding newly available observations, enhancing Near Sea Surface temperature (NSST) analysis, and bug fixes." One of the data assimilation items on there was increased input of high latitude wind data from satellites. Wonder if that might help with the winter storm forecasts with those waves that roll out of northwest Canada that we are always waiting to be "sampled"...

These are fantastic!