bristolri_wx

Terrible… and HRRR was no better until about 2 hours until heavier precip was supposed to move in.

I know, I know... I was being sarcastic there... based on some historical posts in this months thread. That being said, I do remember some one or two week streaks of the HHH's, even if the temps weren't always maxing. This summer has been providing us with noticeable breaks, which is nice, at least IMO.

Yes the ensembles are pointing in that direction as well. One thing to consider that the models haven't been picking up in the extended long range are the "breaks" like today with slightly cooler temps and dew points between the HHH's. Still don't see a "straight through to October" scenario coming as some may have been hoping. Every time you see that unfold on the models in the long range it disappears into some moderating frontal passages in the medium-short range.

Well that sucked. Just totally hit a wall and completely dissipated… dang…

Hey I just want some measurable rain . Is that too much to ask for lol?

I would gladly take severe rain since I have a hayfield in most of my yard at the moment. It ain’t pretty… reservoirs could use a good drink too.

It’s like they are reading this thread at BOX… 645 PM Update: Activity has certainly been less than impressive so far, but we are still seeing scattered thunderstorms across interior SNE tonight with some additional activity trying to get going across RI. Environment remains favorable for thunderstorms tonight with plenty of instability, effective shear, and marginal mid level lapse rates. So why the lack of storms? We think it may be related to the storms that tracked through NYC and Long Island earlier today, which effectively robbed the moisture that was available to feed the storms in our area. That, plus some low and mid level drying behind pre-frontal trough, were probably the main reasons. Going forward, we still expect to see scattered showers/storms tonight ahead of cold front, especially since environmental parameters remain favorable. Some storms could briefly pulse up and become severe, or we may also see small bows or line segments with potential for localized wind damage. Otherwise, wind shift to the NW behind the front which should usher in MUCH drier air for the late-evening/overnight period. Dewpoints upper 50s to lower 60s should be more common in the interior and coastal plain, with lower to mid 60s across the south coast, Cape and Islands by daybreak. Lows to range from the mid 50s to lower 60s north and west of I-95, to the mid to upper 60s across southeast New England.

Heard the rumbles of thunder as the storms passed by 15 miles to the north. Sun is out at the moment so maybe some brief heat up of the atmosphere can let that last line move though here with at least some rain!

A glimmer of hope still... We shall see...

Not feeling confident this is going to happen but we still have a few hours for some surprises to occur.

Yup... the radar looked promising this morning with the line of convection associated with the front looking pretty robust in PA and NY... but it hit a wall in southern New England so far.... some cells here and there but overall more . Not sure what the fuss was about from the various forecasting agencies... maybe I'll reverse jinx myself with this post.

HRRR says between 6pm to 1am to get some activity in RI/SE MA. Let's see if that happens. I would just be happy with heavy rain at this point, it's quite parched here, we've missed on almost every rain chance this month except for a couple.

Part 2...

30 days of high heat in the midwest according to the 30 day GEFS... not as much for us...

I appreciate and love the photos that members post here. Unfortunately in most cases they have been shrunk down to a size that makes them not look great if you want to use them for a wallpaper/desktop picture on a computer, tablet, or phone. I thought it might be a good idea to create a shared Google Drive as a repository to post the full size versions of the photos we're seeing here, for those willing to share. I've already set it up (you get 15GB of storage for free from Google), but wanted to see how others in the forum felt about this. Here's the link to the shared folder on Google Drive: https://drive.google.com/drive/folders/1fn4cL9VTB1viOiTYA2-BlsTsxZEzeHIJ?usp=sharing If members decide that they want to participate, maybe we can create a thread dedicated to photos, or something like that. What I'm looking forward to is being able to use some of these beautiful photos on my desktop as I stare all day at my computer 6 days a week, and hopefully share some of my own as well. Thoughts?

Taking this quick research a step further - going back to 2000, by the last week of September, at least 2/3 of the years have moderate drought or greater conditions covering large geographic areas of New England. So to summarize over the last 22 years: Drought isn't unusual in New England in July. Droughts lasting large parts of the summer also aren't unusual. Droughts usually end in the Fall and Winter for New England. Not sure where to pull data for time periods for time periods before the year 2000, but heck, it's been dry, but eventually the pattern will change at some point, and it's not anything new.

Been going back through the drought monitor records. I'm not sure why there's so much hyperbole in terms of the dry weather we're encountering. It's not necessarily unusual for the region to be in some sort of drought this time of the year. Seems to be based more on the oscillation of the patterns than anything else. Going back 10 years, about half of them have had large parts of the region encountering drought conditions in mid July. Their map archive goes back through the year 2000. There was a period between 2001 - 2004 also featured drought conditions in mid July.

Hmm I was not prepared to play the “sun angle” drinking game today. Usually I only have the bottle nearby in February and March!

Been watching distant lightning and hearing occasional rumbles of thunder for over an hour now. Northern RI getting the goods tonight. Doubt anything holds together here. Dry as a bone.

Isn’t climo for this time of year for Hartford 85/65? +/- 5 degrees doesn’t seem like a “Furnace”… though it’s probably a tick above what I has been on a few of those days. Lets see if it verifies… you have been posting these almost daily. Looks like a high percentage of Euro input on the extended forecast, which hasn’t been working out too well as of late.

Ugh… can we please get back to some real music about drinking alcohol…

Bob’s eye went right over my house. We went outside for a few before the other side of the eye wall game through. I was 13 at the time - left the town a huge mess, many trees down in Bristol. My grandmother said it was the worst since Carol. We’ve been pretty lucky since then.

I’m burning in anticipation…

October? It doesn’t even last until Friday. Not sure there’s anything to prevent the see-saw type pattern to continue.

This is silly. While there may be seasonal adjustments in patterns and pattern shifts, there's no guarantee Peter ever needs to be robbed to pay Paul. It's why chaos theory is part of the forecasting paradigm...