bristolri_wx

About an 1.5” here, very light snow falling at the moment.

Looks like the snow hole is coming up overhead in Eastern RI. Oh wait..

I would prefer to be in Maine, than endure cold February rain, here on the coastal plain. Rain, heavy at times here, 39F.

Aren't these the type of setups where meso's usually do better vs globals? Not mattering to me much here either way, but I feel like the fine line between frozen precipitation and rain would show up more on the meso/hi-res models...

I agree. There’s probably too many breweries out there right now because it’s trendy - same situation here in RI. Not all of them are good and some will close because of it as the market relaxes.

Hmm might get an hour or two of snow out of this. Radar looks robust…

This weather is f-ing terrible. Mix of sleet and freezing rain here, 30 degrees. With a 1/4” of slop on the ground.

Still all rain down here in Newport.

Looks like the temps have dropped 5-10 degrees here in the last hour. Winds shifting to N.

GFS has been gradually catching up. I'm not sure it's been dramatically out-to-lunch at this one. Not really defending it, but it's been correcting northward gradually each run. JMO... All the hi-res guidance looks great for NNE...

HRW FV3 looks good for you as well...

Already lost about 1/3 of what fell on Saturday. I think most of it will be gone by tomorrow night at this rate. Torchin and rainin here... lol...

Viewership for this storm is on the low side... NCEP "weather executives" are preparing the NAM for a region wide dump of snow at 18z followed by a cutting the low through Toronto at 00z to "spice things up."

Well it was nice having snow on the ground for a few days. All that precip plus temps in upper 40’s means this stuff will be gone by Saturday. Unless something changes. This has the feeling of a rainer down here.

I used to enjoy partaking in the DGEX and MM5 over at Accuweather Pro… their 30 day trial system was broken and I had a free account for almost 3 years.

@George001, This model debate is a little silly. All the models have some value in forecasting, and the big 4, (Euro, GFS, UKMET, CMC) all have high enough verification scores where they should all be considered when issuing a forecast. Even with the last storm both the GFS and Euro were correct and incorrect in different ways. If you read the NWS AFD’s they always mention using weighted blends of the models to render their forecasts. Ignoring any one model will reduce your ability to accurately predict what’s going on if the others happen to be wrong.

Looks like UKMET/GFS vs Euro/CMC at the moment... If you blend all four of them you get a nice hit for NNE and ice, rain, a few inches snow, and maybe kitchen sink in SNE. Hopefully things trend towards the former rather than the latter...

My entire interest is "don't wash away/melt my snow" lol... anything that's not that is bonus time.

I could be mistaken here, but last few weeks, it looks like models have underestimated the cold whenever there's been an arctic push from the north predicted. Hopefully that cold air pushes south enough to get snow in the forecast for most of the region.

I think for most of us, we do a best guess, and we try to be as close as possible. However, NWS has their own guide how to take accurate measurements that are consistent, so in theory, if you want to report those numbers to the NWS, you should be following their guidelines, whenever possible: https://www.weather.gov/media/coop/Snow_Measurement_Guidelines-2014.pdf

Share the wealth - as long as it doesn't get washed away elsewhere.

Both GFS and Euro look relatively cold and dry after whatever this mess is comes through...