bristolri_wx

Obviously taken with a grain of salt verbatim, but the HMON, HWRF, and GFS 12z runs on Fiona all have it sub 930 during it's extra-tropical transition. HWRF has it 916Mb at HR 84. Most likely not happening, but there is model consensus of this kind of "blowing up" right before it hits the maritimes as it starts its extra-tropical transition. It's in the 940's though most of it's journey through the North Atlantic...

The line made it here in a weakened state. Some nice downpours at the moment. Better than nothing as we gradually move our way out of this drought.

Is this line going to hold up heading into RI?

Fiona not affecting us except for some waves, but still fun to track when you see this type of weenie model output:

Hmm, the post I replied to seems to have disappeared...

Unfortunately 2014-2015 does not show up anywhere on your chart

Not much else going on… was at least a topic of interest given the general area of development/track. Understandable to not jump on board.

According to the 18z Euro, most likely. According to 18z GFS, probably. 18z Euro really has Fiona cranking now, 947mb at HR 90 and farther NE, than 12z, which was 973mb, thanks to the center missing Hispaniola. If it strengthens that much, then yup it's definitely fish food. Still feel like it's interesting to track though next few days. Euro could be off on strengthening and track...

Ha! Love how I'm getting weenied for a post that ended with "Wouldn't be something to get my hopes up for". Bring it on Oscar Meyer...

18Z GFS is a pinch west to start and then a bit farther west by the time it gets up to the Canadian Maritimes. Not enough to influence NE... biggest notable difference is there's a much bigger ridge over the Midwest than the previous run, and that causes the trough cutting through the New England to have a much more positive tilt in a SW -> NE orientation. If that continues to be the trend, then Fiona's track might continue to edge west, and that trough has a chance of sucking Fiona in closer to the coast. Wouldn't be something to get my hopes up for could be an 18z blip too...

I’m in the “interested because it’s in the right area, but wouldn’t post about it on social media because it doesn’t look good and it would give people the wrong impression” camp. Modeling isn’t looking favorable on this one as it moves west… not surprising… but still worth a periodic check in through Sunday. Fiona is down 28-3 at the half…

Yeah RI at any time of the year isn’t a favorable area for radiational cooling. not surprising.

Regardless of where that thing goes after the 72 hour window, it’s at least putting it in a location that’s historically favorable to make an approach if conditions are right…

Only one person said cold - who was questioned throughly about inebriation levels. I think the rest referred to the period as below normal, which was true for inland areas.

We are! Lots of thunder and heavy downpours. Not too much lightning... Drove past people doing the Cliff Walk and wondered if none of them have a device that would tell them Newport was in a Thunderstorm Warning...

You do you… no need to troll as the seasons change away from the ones you prefer. Even from a strictly weather point of view, other than occasional severe flare ups fall and winter feature many more chances for interesting weather than spring and summer.

So he should just make things up? Using previously researched and tested methodologies is an important part of weather forecasting, and in science in general. Of course if you are willing provide a $500,000 grant, some number crunching equipment, and some grad student assistants, I’m sure he can come up with the next set of determining factors for winter forecasts that have been yet to be discovered.

Don’t have any measurements but it’s been pouring here for a couple of hours now. Radar estimate is creeping up…

Yes… correct me if I’m wrong but isn’t there some math and physics that show that as temperature drops the amount of water vapor that can be contained in the atmosphere is reduced? So you could never get 9” of rain in a twelve hour span when temps are that low…

Every inch counts…

Even if the eastern areas of RI miss out on the heaviest stuff, it’s a huge win if the western areas get it. Most of the state gets its water from the Scituate Reservoir and its watershed is getting an nice fill up out of this storm.

I think the forecast of 1-2" with isolated jackpots of more than that is going to be a solid forecast for most areas outside of the cape. Patience...