bristolri_wx

“The environment ahead of Lee is expected to gradually become less conducive for the hurricane as it moves into a region of higher wind shear, drier air, and over progressively cooler SSTs. These conditions favor weakening, but since the system is so large the weakening process should be slow. The NHC intensity forecast is a little lower than the previous one, in part due to the initial lower wind speed, and remains near the HCCA and IVCN guidance. Regardless of the details, there is high confidence that Lee will be a large hurricane near the coast of New England Friday night and Saturday. It should again be noted that the 34- and 50-kt wind speed probabilities beyond 36 hours in the text and graphical products are likely underestimating the risk of those winds occurring. This is because the forecast wind field of Lee is considerably larger than average compared to the wind field used to derive the wind speed probability product.” Stick a fork in it - though perhaps the Tropical Storm force winds will be farther out than we would normally expect. The fact it’s taking a while to wind down may influence that as well. Looks like the rain risk is fading away as well, 1-2” for ESNE 2-4” for Maine…

The narratives around here change about as quickly as the weather. Early on people were excited about direct hits to New England with Lee being a hurricane, and possibly strong, with this unusual eastern track Lee is taking. Some are treating this as a strong nor’easter because Lee will be acting more like that than it will be a landfalling New England hurricane. This doesn’t mean we won’t see effects and damage. But it won’t be like anything like a land falling hurricane that take the usual west of the Gulf Stream track that those storms have made. This will be a decaying storm, over cooler waters, not phasing and experiencing much extra tropical transition until it gets farther pas our area. Nor’easters have also produced damage to our area as well, without snow. There is nothing I see in guidance from models or even the NHC that says otherwise. It’s gonna be a very crummy weekend for a large chunk of New England which falls on the westerns side of Lee.

Not that it matters that much for anyone who has a tree that falls on their house, but Lee might be barely tropical by the time it gets here. Biggest risk here is tree damage from higher winds considering all the rain we have gotten before Lee arrives. Should be quite wet and breezy east of the track. I think many will be disappointed by gusts though.

Just because something is possible doesn't mean it's going to happen. There's a very high probability that this will be a nothing-burger for most, if not all, of New England. There is a very low probability of other outcomes. The NHC forecasts have been outlining this for a while now.

Lee really wants to interact with that Canadian shortwave and phase with it at 500mb. If that shortwave slows down then Lee will move towards it. Right now it goes right by into SE Canada and Lee follows it N/NNE. Not certain by any means, but the trend all day on the GFS has been slightly east each run.

Already turning NE by 75/78...

Excellent point. Here's more info about that storm. Similar track though it looks like it got much farther west than Lee will.

The most useful thing about this post is a direct link to this site: http://arctic.som.ou.edu/tburg/products/realtime/tropical/

“Lee is likely to move over a cool SST wake left behind by Hurricanes Idalia and Franklin later this week, and cross over the north wall of the Gulf Stream by the end of the forecast period. The combination of cooler SSTs, an increase in shear, and dry air entrainment should cause a steady decay in strength late this week and over the weekend.”

You must be new here…

Truth. If we get moderate wind and rain from Lee it still could be a big mess.

It's been torrentially downpouring here in N. Providence for almost 2 hours now. Radar estimated is at the 4-6" range were we are, and more to come. Some reports of flooding...

Agreed, and you provided a better map...

I see that one ensemble member was run off @MJO812’s basement computer. So nice of him to donate computing resources to the ECMWF.

Lots of mediocre water temps for tropical with that EPS track due north at 67 W. Misses out on the nice warm temps of the east coast of the US and the Gulf Stream until it hits 38 N... probably weakens more than modeled as it goes over those cooler temps.

BRING IT!

That second storm has a much more of a track that has New England possibilities for landfall. If that one forms like the GFS is hinting at, we'll need to watch it.

Let me know when the storm is forecasted to move here. Long way to go...

LOL I got weenied for this?

Rain just finally arrived here. Feel like there was a force field around us last two days lol...

I'm not buying what the GEFS is selling. The storm would be historic, because have we ever had a landfalling hurricane follow a track even close to any of the landfalling members have going? It seems extremely rare for anything that starts to make that turn N before 70 W to make it here as a hurricane. I guess any track is possible, but I still think Lee making a direct hit on New England based on the way the GEFS is forecasting is like 1%. Now if Lee doesn't turn and takes a more traditional route with a drive by near Cape Hatteras, then we're cooking with gas - but not one model shows that happening.

Trying to figure out why 12z Euro op was so much farther west of the 00z (been out all day catching up now)... seems like the only big difference is interaction with a short wave digging SE out of Canada pulls Lee NW. So I guess that seems to be a key piece of the puzzle to keep an eye on, and we all know how great the models are forecasting Canadian waves of low pressure 7 or 8 days out.

I believe the term for what Lee has is “Premature Intensification”. There are medications and therapies that can help.

75… even at 70 they usually miss us, as they rarely turn due north and stay that way.

Spinal Tap intensity scale lol.