bristolri_wx

The most useful thing about this post is a direct link to this site: http://arctic.som.ou.edu/tburg/products/realtime/tropical/

“Lee is likely to move over a cool SST wake left behind by Hurricanes Idalia and Franklin later this week, and cross over the north wall of the Gulf Stream by the end of the forecast period. The combination of cooler SSTs, an increase in shear, and dry air entrainment should cause a steady decay in strength late this week and over the weekend.”

You must be new here…

Truth. If we get moderate wind and rain from Lee it still could be a big mess.

It's been torrentially downpouring here in N. Providence for almost 2 hours now. Radar estimated is at the 4-6" range were we are, and more to come. Some reports of flooding...

Agreed, and you provided a better map...

I see that one ensemble member was run off @MJO812’s basement computer. So nice of him to donate computing resources to the ECMWF.

Lots of mediocre water temps for tropical with that EPS track due north at 67 W. Misses out on the nice warm temps of the east coast of the US and the Gulf Stream until it hits 38 N... probably weakens more than modeled as it goes over those cooler temps.

BRING IT!

That second storm has a much more of a track that has New England possibilities for landfall. If that one forms like the GFS is hinting at, we'll need to watch it.

Let me know when the storm is forecasted to move here. Long way to go...

LOL I got weenied for this?

Rain just finally arrived here. Feel like there was a force field around us last two days lol...

I'm not buying what the GEFS is selling. The storm would be historic, because have we ever had a landfalling hurricane follow a track even close to any of the landfalling members have going? It seems extremely rare for anything that starts to make that turn N before 70 W to make it here as a hurricane. I guess any track is possible, but I still think Lee making a direct hit on New England based on the way the GEFS is forecasting is like 1%. Now if Lee doesn't turn and takes a more traditional route with a drive by near Cape Hatteras, then we're cooking with gas - but not one model shows that happening.

Trying to figure out why 12z Euro op was so much farther west of the 00z (been out all day catching up now)... seems like the only big difference is interaction with a short wave digging SE out of Canada pulls Lee NW. So I guess that seems to be a key piece of the puzzle to keep an eye on, and we all know how great the models are forecasting Canadian waves of low pressure 7 or 8 days out.

I believe the term for what Lee has is “Premature Intensification”. There are medications and therapies that can help.

75… even at 70 they usually miss us, as they rarely turn due north and stay that way.

Spinal Tap intensity scale lol.

That’s some very impressive strengthening in a short timeframe! Waiting for someone to drop or invent the term tropical bombogenesis on the internet soon!

Ugh we are still 9 days out... definitely a trend in the right direction if you want a storm. The EPS mean has been slowly marching west. But still... Day 9 model run...

Sorry that was supposed to be a funny! Perhaps I should have added a "Shwing!" to my reply.

Didn't realize you were that excited about this storm.

Not really? Bob formed from a wave off the Florida coast. Lee is a long-tracker.

Can't get to excited until it gets to 75 West. Almost everything that hits us has to get that far west or it recurves... a lot more variation in latitude than longitude...