bristolri_wx

I fully admit it’s nice to see blue spots on the GFS and Euro reappearing on their Continental US precip maps, even if it’s not near us. Beautiful night for a dog walk tonight down here. Enjoy it while you can.

Hope those beers were really really good.

I can see it.. I can smell it…

Watching the Pats game will not add to its perfection.

Plans are already made, should be possible:

Current radar loop looks cool… rain moving in three different directions. South from NH/VT, east over MA, WNW over CT and RI.

No one likes it, except ODB…

Who's working the Massachusetts border preventing that rain from moving north? Don't think I've ever seen it that close to following a border like that lol.

Short term another win for the GFS. May be too dry for tomorrow though.

True. But all the meso models are wetter than the GFS. GFS is kind of on its own at the moment, and even the 18z ensembles were wetter than the operational run. Common sense forecast: most likely not as juicy as the NAM 3K and not as dry as the GFS. Somewhere in the middle is the answer, though my gut feeling is that the mesos are picking something up that the GFS isn't seeing...

I was curious and did some research. Tapatalk was re-purchased by the founder. Probably good news for the app. Almost all the forums that are removing support are owned by a company called Verticalscope which apparently have bought up thousands of forum sites on the internet over the last decade. They also own the forum hosting software XenForo, and the competing app to Tapatalk, Fora. Looks more like this Verticalscope company looking for an opportunity to consolidate than issues with Tapatalk. Apparently almost the same message verbatim was posted in most forums, which made some people suspicious.

Kevin did, but I don't think you got my joke anyway

If you think it sucks up in Northern New England, how do you think I feel here in RI with GRAY foliage!

GFS and Euro continue to generate something off the Florida coast and kick it north-northeast up the coast. Supported in the ensembles as well. Doesn't look like it gets too organized yet. Something to watch since it's so close by...

Lots of dry air being pulled in from the NW below 5000 feet.

So much for that modeled NW hook/tug. Entirely gone from guidance… due north it is.

GFS/GEFS did a good job on this one, but if it ever gets a hurricane track 15 days out it’s pure luck. However it has been in the ballpark and not waivered as much as the Euro throughout Lee’s existence. Score 1 for the Americans!!

In weather model news, Pivotal has the new RRFS, which is replacing the RAP and HRRR sometime in the next year or so: https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=rrfs_a Doesn't look like it's consistently getting data as of yet...

This could be a major concern in eastern facing areas, especially along the coast of Maine. Even though this will be nor'easter strength when it's decaying east of Maine Lee's remnants will probably have more ability to generate coastal flooding because of its strength and size before it begins to wind down. This is probably of more significance than wherever Lee's remnants make landfall.

Took me 15 minutes to figure out WTF this guy was talking about in relation to Tropical Tidbits. To think in my younger days I would watch the Long Ranger on Accuweather Pro to get his opinions, lol...

Nigel’s targeted landfall is the west coast of Scotland. Take that for what it’s worth.

I agree in principal but we’ve had many strong autumn nor’easters that have caused significant amounts of winds and damage… just not hurricane level stuff.

“The environment ahead of Lee is expected to gradually become less conducive for the hurricane as it moves into a region of higher wind shear, drier air, and over progressively cooler SSTs. These conditions favor weakening, but since the system is so large the weakening process should be slow. The NHC intensity forecast is a little lower than the previous one, in part due to the initial lower wind speed, and remains near the HCCA and IVCN guidance. Regardless of the details, there is high confidence that Lee will be a large hurricane near the coast of New England Friday night and Saturday. It should again be noted that the 34- and 50-kt wind speed probabilities beyond 36 hours in the text and graphical products are likely underestimating the risk of those winds occurring. This is because the forecast wind field of Lee is considerably larger than average compared to the wind field used to derive the wind speed probability product.” Stick a fork in it - though perhaps the Tropical Storm force winds will be farther out than we would normally expect. The fact it’s taking a while to wind down may influence that as well. Looks like the rain risk is fading away as well, 1-2” for ESNE 2-4” for Maine…

The narratives around here change about as quickly as the weather. Early on people were excited about direct hits to New England with Lee being a hurricane, and possibly strong, with this unusual eastern track Lee is taking. Some are treating this as a strong nor’easter because Lee will be acting more like that than it will be a landfalling New England hurricane. This doesn’t mean we won’t see effects and damage. But it won’t be like anything like a land falling hurricane that take the usual west of the Gulf Stream track that those storms have made. This will be a decaying storm, over cooler waters, not phasing and experiencing much extra tropical transition until it gets farther pas our area. Nor’easters have also produced damage to our area as well, without snow. There is nothing I see in guidance from models or even the NHC that says otherwise. It’s gonna be a very crummy weekend for a large chunk of New England which falls on the westerns side of Lee.