bristolri_wx

I weenied you for that post only because I can’t weenie myself for being excited about that map lol!

You end up a meteorologist? This is why support systems are in place, to keep our world safe from this result.

Wowza. Aren’t those wunderground forecasts generated from the Amiga model?

Last years Winter Panic thread was started on 12/1/21, so we're two weeks late this year. Time to induce!

Interesting information... taken with a grain of salt. https://www.washington.edu/news/2022/10/03/study-suggests-la-nina-winters-could-keep-on-coming/

Juicy band overhead. Making up for the snow hole earlier lol…

Snow hole… 33… holding steady at 1/2”

Pleasantly surprised with the 1/2” on the grass here. Not much sticking to pavement. We’ve had a few more lulls here than others (as usual). Definitely feels festive out there.

We are going to be going through a pattern transition. The operational surface maps are going to be hot garbage outside of five days while this is taking place. I wouldn't take anything verbatim outside of five days at the moment. Stick with ensembles days 6+...

https://www.weather.gov/media/notification/pdf2/scn22-104_gfs.v16.3.0.pdf

This can't be stressed enough! Regardless of the outcome, there's definitely more chances for wintery weather coming up based on the pattern forecasted compared to the December 2021 pattern which was terrible for us.

Wow, can't believe that the December thread is 17 pages long already and it's not even 12/1. Even the last 18 hours worth of posts have been kind of crazy. I'm not sure what the fuss is about. I'm no met, but it's just nice to be in the ballpark of a favorable pattern in December, regardless of the outcome. Go back the last few years, and there wasn't anything like this really modeled or discussed in December model runs. Even if it doesn't turn out exactly as we hope, it should be a volatile pattern with chances for all sorts of weather outcomes. It definitely does not look like last year, so already that's going to be an improvement. I'm just hoping for seasonable weather around Christmas. Whether there's snow on the ground, that's always tough, especially where I am, but there's been too many grinch storms last few years where I'm driving home on Christmas Eve at 10PM and its 50 degrees and foggy. If this anticipated pattern is delayed a few days, I'm not sweating it, with the hope it lasts through Christmas, even if it ends up dry and cold. Back to your regularly scheduled early December trolling and bickering.

Fixed that for you.

George says we can all get along...

Love these fronts that kick through and the wind starts gusting as the CAA moves in. Such a big part of autumn and winter in New England.

Terrible… That’s YouTube monetization for you. I could make a good amount of money too posting the NAM for every snow threat. Model maps without context are the CNN/Fox News of weather forecasting.

Happy Thanksgiving everyone! Enjoy the turkey, beer, football, and climo weather!

What are you talking about??? At the time it was predicted temp anomalies were +20 and models (and some posters) were hesitant to break the pattern. The last 10 days we’ve gone from +20 to normal/slightly below. What part of the pattern change did you not see occur. For those that enjoy winter, seeing things return to climo is a good thing, even if it doesn’t result in violent blizzards before Thanksgiving.

Thanks for posting this!!! Hopefully your post has the same results as Stein posting 384 QPF maps a few months back. Pretty sure it didn’t rain for 6 months on those 384 hr runs. Have a Happy Thanksgiving, be sure not to torch your turkey!

My non scientific gut feeling is that the below normal cold hangs around a little longer. I think we are seeing the usual model waffling around a major pattern change that is afoot…

Did she have nice blooms?

Excellent job Ray! Was waiting for the release, and you definitely delivered. This is definitely one of those "read it a few times to take it all in" articles. I await my 27"-36" of snow (I always knock off 10% of whatever is predicted for PVD). Thanks for providing this to us, it was quite educational.