bristolri_wx

Looks like the dry slot is moving into RI and SE MA, but it may not last long, looks like one more band trying to regenerate and arc towards the NW...

Still snowing here. Solid 4" of mashed potatoes here in Bristol. Came down pretty good for a couple of hours after a brief mix with rain. Quite surprised I'm still seeing flakes. Winds are picking up again too...

I don't think it was ball busting as much as you throwing in the towel pretty early on. Yes, the outcome eventually was a bust. But you admit yourself that three miles west of you the forecast is much closer to what was expected. Conditions could have easily changed where the snow piled up a little more east of the bay. It's not like North Kingstown is a bastion of high snowfall totals in the winter time like NW RI. The Weather Channel and Ch. 10 did end up with a better forecast for eastern parts of RI...

Don't feel bad, only about an inch here! You doubled up from my house. Looks like it's more of an east/west thing this time around than a north/south.

It's been a while since I've seen the radar look so good and the result be so terrible lol... not a 'melt' just an observation. Par for the course down here near the bay.

Mixing with rain in Warwick and here in Bristol now. Oh well... less to shovel...

True - yet the expectation was the worst of this storm would be through 10PM for areas in the coastal plain. That's definitely not gonna happen at this point with this map issued at 5PM. Even my conservative 4-8" is gonna bust here...

There's a point where they stop updating the high end and low end maps, but still keeps updating the official expected map.

Updated map from BOX. Also, their 4:45 PM AFD didn't issue an updated short term forecast...

Yup, not much better in Bristol. Considering the radar not much to show for it at all. No mixing but whatever is going on with the radar echoes isn't mixing down to reality at the surface. As others have commented, seems more like a March storm than the 1st day of February here. I was expecting 4-8", would surprised if I get that now - still a long way to go though.

Patience...

Newport is forecasted at 6-8". I think 4-7" is more realistic. It will stick as rates increase... give it time... but no one predicted 8-12" that close to the coast...

You know the GFS is on drugs when I'm in a jackpot zone...

You're in a great spot in RI for snow in general. I have friends in Cumberland and they always get more than me in almost any type of event.

https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/nexrad/

BOX discussion is very bullish on the front end thump - hence the increase in the maps despite some mixing being forecast.

Way up compared to this morning.

I think 4-8” is a good call for most in the coastal plain except for right at the coast/cape, etc. Considering the preceding air mass it’s going to be unlikely that mix line gets as far NW as modeled before the precip lets up. As usual with 90% of storms we thread the needle...

Took the dog for a walk, about 2-3” on the ground. Light snow but occasionally moderate. Probably could have been a little more but we had mixed with sleet and graupel at times a little earlier this evening...

Sleeting in Portsmouth/Middletown/Newport

Definitely a northward trend for that second event on the Euro OP last 4 runs. Doubt this turns into a big event for us... probably a SNE scraper with a sharp cutoff. Something is better than nothing though!

Is today‘a storm really a “grinch” storm? Yeah it’s raining, but there’s no snow on the ground, and it’s not that warm. Sure it’s not snow but feels more like a regular ole winter rain storm for the coastal plain, which we get often, then something I would associate as a “grinch” ruining the season storm. Maybe it’s just me on this one...

Nothing should be burned in my opinion. It’s just computer guidance. It’s why humans still make “real” weather forecasts. Sure the snowfall and QPF maps can be misleading but they are useful in making a forecast. All the different maps help you form a final forecast. This is why I have great respect for meteorologists who have gone through years of school and then have the historic knowledge on top when making forecasts. As hobbyists we screw up more because we don’t have the training and experience (though many here make excellent forecasts on a consistent basis). Maybe I’m just jaded at this point because of geographic location, but busts are busts and you move on to the next event. Even when I’m stuck in a snow hole, I’m always more interested as to what’s caustic going it, than being angered or distressed by it. 8-12” in NYC isn’t bad this time of year. They should have gone with that from the outset rather than the 12-18”. Many here were suspicious of high totals near the coastal areas, even down that way. Climo always plays a role!