bristolri_wx

What I'm visualizing in my mind when I read posts like this from @forkyfork:

Thanks. Seems odd it shows up some clear nights but not others. Seems quite “severe” today, whatever clutter is causing it.

What’s all the noise on radar tonight? Showing up on KBOX and KOKX.

Stealing from the weather station up the street from me: FR: 0.18 SA: 2.04 SU: 2.30 MO: 0.71 T: 5.23

Didn’t the 1950 storm happen in November? Seems like an apples to oranges comparison. Not sure if this type of record keeping exists but would like to see where this storm ranks in terms of September nor’easters. Probably hard to track that given the number or remnant tropical, subtropical, and hybrid systems there are this time of year. I feel like most official forecasts were within reason. It’s the social media clickbait posting 90 MPH gusts on the RRFS-A that kind of leak into the “hype” narrative here… Will be a memorable storm for many just based on rainfall.

Took a nice drive through Colt State Park. Didn’t see as much wind damage as I thought I would. 3.5” of rain based on averaging the weather stations in my area (mine is broken/offline )

Yeah after several hours of blah this band is the real deal.

This band looks interesting if it makes it here…

I guess you are in a boring spot of this one. I’ve been getting 30-40 mph gusts for the last 24 hours here, which means it will be 60 hours total of gusts in this category before they subside. Rain has been meh.

On a grade of 1 - 10, I would rate it a 7 so far. 20k without power in CT, 4k in MA, and 1k in RI doesn’t make this storm ordinary by any measure, but it’s also not the most severe we have had. Another 18 hours before it passes west and occludes so let’s make a final judgment tomorrow or Monday. Some areas definitely feeling it much worse than others.

lol Supermarket Sweep, what a TERRIBLE game show.

The current one - no. They are already working on a revised version that will be more accurate. RRFS was supposed to replace HRRR but was never able to get there due to using the same FV3 core as new GFS, which also has not performed well.

Models still trying to figure out where the hell those two lows are going to phase or merge. Probably going to be jumping hundreds of miles each run for the next 36 hours - ensembles rule until then. Are they doing any air force recon data ingestion runs for this storm since it's potentially going to have some warm-core components?

"...But what I have also found is a connection in the stratosphere. The image below shows a warmer winter stratosphere and a weaker/disrupted Polar Vortex, following a slow hurricane season. This does not imply that hurricane season directly impacts the Polar Vortex, but there is likely a common El Niño factor at play that also includes the Pacific impacts and atmospheric waves. With this in mind, I loaded and plotted the latest forecast data for the stratosphere. Below you can see the Polar Vortex wind forecast, which is how we estimate its strength. In this latest seasonal data, we can clearly see an interesting deceleration and a potential disruption trend starting in early January..."

Interesting read/analysis: https://www.severe-weather.eu/global-weather/super-el-nino-builds-atmospheric-hurricane-shield-winter-2026-2027-connections-united-states-canada-fa/

I would be hesitant to say that no one North of Philly is getting above normal snow. It only takes three-four large storms to get to climo totals in the coastal plain. The season could still avg +8 temps but 10 days of true winter spread across 3 months can get you above average. Not saying that will happen… just that it can if we are talking in absolutes. And it would still “feel like a ratter” if it’s rainy and 45 most of the winter outside of those 3-4 storms.

Radar estimated 3” here. Seems in the ballpark. A number of roads had sections flooded out in the East Bay Area when I was out earlier.

Deluge continues here. Video doesn’t necessarily do it justice.

Torrential here. Already about 1” of rain.

It was close to normal here, but it didn't seem like it. Never a good sign when your high total for the year for all of SNE is 51" in Gloucester, RI.

I feel like a DJF mean is going to be deceiving this Winter. There’s going to be a lot of fluctuation from November straight through to March even though the overall trend is warm and wet. My expectations are low enough where anything will be a pleasant surprise. Regardless of temps and snowfall there’s a high probability of it being an interesting winter season for weather to follow. I don’t see a repeat 2015-2016 happening which was just total boring shit weather almost bell to bell.

Any analogs show up with strong El Nino’s with extraordinarily low Atlantic ACE’s the preceding tropical season?

https://dem.ri.gov/agriculture/caps-program-pests-spotted-lanternfly

Torrential on the way from Bristol to Providence over the last 45 minutes. Portions of 114 Wampanoag Trail flooded.