bristolri_wx

Terrible here at Colt State Park. Lots of parties ruined. Breezy, light drizzle/rain, 59 degrees. Although there may differing opinions on how much summertime ball sweat some of us enjoy, anything is better than this shit on a Saturday in June.

Was looking at the ensembles. Perhaps the output for the longer term is not the best way gauge the actual weather in terms of temps and dews. It also seems like the areas where we want the heat and humidity to be above normal when the flow we need to kick in doesn’t seem so. The southeast doesn’t seem to be having particularly above normal HHH weather which is usually present when we start to get it as well. I will fully admit I’m paying more attention this summer than usual, so my understanding of correlation of models to patterns may be lacking. I’m also not predicting a cold snap, after Thursday and Friday I just wasn’t seeing a lot more than 85/65 until late in the period.

I don't think it will be as HHH as you would like it to be. It should be moderately above normal temps, but dewpoints are not going above mid 60's at most times in the extended term. Not seeing any sustained heat wave type stuff yet. Does look dry in terms of rainfall.

Thursday and Friday look like "Toland and Tiger Torched Tropical Taint" days if you enjoy that stuff. Highs mid to upper 80's and dewpoints may hit 70. Then back to more average temps and dewpoints for the weekend.

The HREF looked pretty dry as well for several runs in a row. .10 to .20 for New England.

Looks wet later this afternoon in SNE. Could have been worse - interesting how that low off the coast wants no business really interacting with the disturbance moving through from the west. Just keeps moving northeast…

Doesn’t look HHH in the long term after the weekend. Maybe a few days with mid 60’s dew points. Looks like +2-5 temps with dewpoints in upper 50’s and low 60’s for an extended period. It actually looks… nice…? What models are showing signs of HHH?

I wouldn't say it's totally backing off but there's a nice area of relatively dry weather that's showing up on the globals and the ensembles, but it's been fluctuating in size and location last few days. Let's see if it sticks.

And it was a hiccup because while I was googling it came back up! Was down for several minutes...

Did the Storm Prediction Center get shut down? Or just an outage? Wanted to look at the HREF and got this...

Rolled in to the driveway at 7 and it was 68. Gotta love the PM sea breeze factor. Still haven’t installed yet.

Jeez, Friday night through Saturday night look wet. Make your outdoor plans for Sunday this weekend. Euro just hangs the front there for 24 hours before moving out...

Mid 80's and low 90's have never been uncommon in New England during the summer months over the last 150 years. The biggest increases have been in dewpoints and low temps over the last several decades. If you moved here expecting 60's and 70's during the summer... well... we aren't Canada...

I definitely feel confident we're getting away from these closed off lows and below normal temps, but the foreseeable future does not look super hot or humid. Definitely a few AN days this upcoming week, but longer term it's looking mostly seasonable here, maybe a couple of degrees above normal through the rest of June into early July - with the usual spikes and valleys in temps. CanSIPS has us slightly above normal next three months, with all the AN heat being confined to the west and and in Canada. Southeast US is below normal. Not the look you want for extended amounts of temps and dews. My call right now is no heat wave (5 days consecutive 90+) for Southern New England through June. Northern New England has better chances at it...

If the smoke stays out of it, then this should be helpful: https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/aurora-30-minute-forecast

If you look at the HRRR smoke model and make an reasonable interpretation through 48 hours, looks like we get the worst of the smoke on starting late Tuesday into Wednesday. This is 1PM Tuesday, with all that stuff steadily heading west...

62/breezy - While this isn’t beach/bbq weather definitely great for giving the lawn a fresh cut for those of us who are out of shape and don’t have tractors.

It’s definitely time to move away from the later winter/spring storm patterns and into the late spring/summer convection patterns to get our rain. Losing days to rain is getting tiring for everyone at this point.

Yup, every global has some mischief around for Fri/Sat, even if they aren't in 100% agreement with each other. A front sweeping east and some sort of low off Hatteras moving up the coast...

Breezy, 53 degrees, and no A/C installed yet. Made it to June 1!

Looks impressive… maybe even anomalous!

Still not sure what I was quoted for/getting called out on there... weather this week wasn't terrible we had a couple of nice days, but it wasn't that great either. Lots of overcast conditions, rained a few days, and now we have a 990 low tracking up the Appalachian's into the CT River for Saturday. Even after the low passes it's looking like drizzle and breezy conditions in it's wake until it pulls much farther north for Eastern New England. If this is COC - get to Planned Parenthood for a screening... Looks like the pattern will break next week (thankfully)...

If I had a dollar for every time it’s been mentioned in this forum that the Canadian model is “junk” in this forum, I would be able to buy it, cash. Of course it’s not total junk but it’s funny when it gets brought up when other models are not in agreement with an opinion on the forecast.

The common sense weather take is we are stuck in this weather pattern until we are not. Not rooting for it, but, hard to dismiss another terrible stretch of weather with an anomalous storm considering the last few weeks. Shit happens…

Impressive for late May...