bristolri_wx

“Baby if you ever wondered, wondered whatever happened to Spring.”

If you look at the ultra long range 00z GEFS the first week of March is a nice warm up, followed by a cool down. I wouldn’t pull out the shorts and a/c’s just yet.

We don’t need El Niño or La Niña, we just need Canada to have relatively normal cold air again. As long as Canada continues to be a furnace our Winter snow chances will continue to be reduced. Our general patterns were favorable several times for snowfall, only for there to be marginal temps making accumulation difficult or impossible. Sometimes you don’t realize how a +10 or +20 500 miles away makes 29 degrees turn into 33 degrees in New England.

I promise to not start one ever again!

Did I start the longest lasting Autumn Banter thread ever?

Had about 1” of fluff here. It melted as soon as the sun came out.

Yes exactly. Some may be envisioning shorts and sandals and while that could happen, I feel like disappointment will continue, but just in the other direction.

I feel like this forum might go crazy if the “Morch” ends up being 45 degrees and cloudy for weeks on end with +20 low temps at night.

Bring on Morch! Have some grass to seed in the yard, would like to get an early start since I missed my window in the fall.

Just removed about 3.5” of Hungry Jack from the driveway, thankfully the electric snow blower could handle it. Would love to know the ratios on this stuff considering it was snowing moderately to heavy for most of the storm. Probably 4-1 or 5-1 type stuff. This was probably about 5” of snow at one point.

I agree with everything you said 100%, and I don't have met training so I'm not even in much position to take an alternative angle. That being said, I think even the folks at NCEP and other agencies were probably wondering what was going on with models yesterday afternoon, and by 6PM they had hurricane hunters out doing data readings. It didn't shock me that @Ginx snewx started posting HRRR runs that were "improving" a few hours later. Perhaps those flights would have been done anyway for research purposes but there was definitely a period yesterday where something made the models start show something different after several days of consistency.

Made the Bristol to Providence track into work between 8:30 to 9:15. Moderate to heavy snow the entire way. It's sticking pretty good to grassy areas, but roads are just slushy. It's been hovering 32 the entire time. Eyeballing about 4" outside my office. Don't have a yard stick here. It super heavy slop, but looks delightful outside.

Here you go man: https://weedmaps.com/dispensaries/in/united-states/rhode-island/cumberland

I mean let’s be honest when the GFS is out to lunch in the other direction against consensus, we usually toss it. In this case it’s still showing much more than anyone else, it could just be behind, unless we see a jog north on the high res meso models or radar changes, it’s probably not happening as depicted on the GFS.

I'm also getting the distinct impression that this preceding airmass being hot garbage provides wide swings when you start looking at snowfall maps with little change in the upper levels. If we had a colder airmass in place, ratios wouldn't be as much of an issue considering the overall placement of the low pressure. It going a little farther south, as mentioned in the discussions, causes the better lift and the mechanics to cool off the atmosphere more quickly and comprehensively go along with it, and no one is sure if back side cold air can balance that out. A week ago we weren't even sure a snowstorm for a large part of the area could materialize considering the confidence in it being +10 to +20 for several days before hand and no cold front coming before it to inject cold air into the region.

Out of personal curiosity, I would love to know what data that got ingested in the last 12-18 hours that caused this much of a hiccup. I see the reasons for the change, but man, what a huge swing right before go time. And before you say the Ukie was on this the entire time, the reason why the Ukie didn't like this storm on earlier runs does not seem to match the trends on the other models in the last 12 hours. I guess the models were threading the needle the last few days with a perfect setup of chaos that didn't actually occur?

BOX AFD:

The dark gray doesn't go that far up Narragansett Bay. I'm at around 10" here for the season in Bristol.

Wow 4-8” down here wouldn’t be terrible. I’ll take it. Better than the last three white rain storms we have had.

In the spirit of this discussion, here's a long range total snowfall map.

#Winter2024. Terrible.