bristolri_wx

What a way to end that 6" storm streak. Ka-boom!!

As some others have posted, we are lucky we are getting this much for a SWFE. Ordinarily they do not perform well in coastal plain, and they often end as rain, not sleet, for those closer to the south coastal areas. I’ve seen as much as 6-8” wash away to nothing or almost nothing at the end in some of the more potent ones. 8-12” with sleet at the end isn’t the end of the world. Canada actually being cold again has been the key this year. We have seen more favorable setups in previous seasons but no cold to tap into and we end up with mostly slop.

It can get a nickname when it actually goes operational. The RRFS A on Pivotal has already been deemed a “failure” by NOAA and will never be used for official forecasts. All the FV3 (of which RRFS is one) based models are going to be replaced, unless I’m misunderstanding what I have read. The next version based on different physics is still considered even more experimental. So maybe the nickname should be “cancelled”? LOL

Look at both and compare. If Kuchera is higher, then expect that there will be higher than 10-1 ratios, but probably not to the extreme that KR is depicting. Then look at QPF and compare the three. CT Rain described other things to look at that are the factor. There isn’t going to be one model generated map that will accurately show snowfall in most forms. It’s why in most cases maps are made by each site/station/service. The NBM may come close as NOAA does have some formulas built into that but it’s not perfect either, as you may have seen from earlier NMB map posts about this storm.

A little worried about the sleet on the mesos now for those of us south and east of 95. NAM 3K and RRFS A look very sleety, HRRR is a bit better. Globals think differently or aren't picking it up...

The 3K looked better at 0z at 54H than 18Z at 60 as well...

This is a good map. Sums it up. Even if there's sleet along the southern areas, it mostly falls after the bulk of the heavy stuff falls. I think the NAM turns down the volume in subsequent runs...

For those who don't mind weather governance.

Well these NAM 3K soundings are not the governing voice of the forecast, so you are free to form your own opinion.

What a sneaky bugger that warm nose at around 800mb! Still snow, but mutha-fooka... (edited for better images)

Call and Raise!

I would agree. I think sleet doesn’t make it past the immediate coastal zones, at least with the way the 700 - 850 layer is being shown now. Ordinarily, you would expect WAA to bring in a little more but this is an anomalous setup with this much arctic air in place to the north of us - that it’s going to be much more difficult for that warm layer to penetrate than usual. It only lasts for about 6 hours anyway before the coastal slides past us and the UL winds switch around. If the hi-res stuff sees something different - that changes the narrative lol.

LOL I reported that because one day I thought my ability to click on a map correctly/accurately was impaired! Took me a few minutes to figure it out.

"not the governing voice"

Why do you bring this up every single time NWS/NOAA is discussed? They are a group of mets like any other, putting out a forecast. Your criticism is valid, but the subtle undertones of your wording are noted.

Oddly the NBM says I'll be getting more than the map or the text forecast.

For those interested in the NBM, this page allows you to pick the parameter on a dashboard page, and it provides you the model blend for that particular hour's model output. It does change depending on how close or far our the forecast range is: https://blend.mdl.nws.noaa.gov/nbm-dashboard

Looks like map has been re-generated for what they are actually forecasting:

It definitely sucks that you may be missing out on a memorable storm for RI. They are rare, compared to other parts of New England. That being said, you do have your two week travel period set during the middle of what is usually the best period climo-wise for good storms in RI. Mid-January to Mid-February is when things tend to click the most for us in RI if you look at storm records. I'm guessing your two week period of travel can't be adjusted, but you would have less of a chance missing out on our storms in SE NE if you moved that winter travel period a little.

Enjoy it when you get back. It will still be here with all this cold. With some other chances to cash in.

I've always wondered how much Environment Canada uses their own models for forecasting vs the other globals that are available to them. Are the Canadian models tuned for their geographic location? CMC/RGEM is an outlier right now, so I wouldn't look too much into that until there's agreement. Usually the NAM is good with picking up those warm profiles but you need to wait to 48 hours before go time to get that data accurately modeled.

4” here. Extra wet stuff with some fluffier snow towards the top.

About to make the trip home to Bristol from Providence, this should be fun! Eyeballing a couple of inches on the ground here in Providence. There was only a coating left from this morning before the snow picked up at around sunset...

I'm taking the over that @Franklin0529 will likely lose some money today.