bristolri_wx

So he should just make things up? Using previously researched and tested methodologies is an important part of weather forecasting, and in science in general. Of course if you are willing provide a $500,000 grant, some number crunching equipment, and some grad student assistants, I’m sure he can come up with the next set of determining factors for winter forecasts that have been yet to be discovered.

Don’t have any measurements but it’s been pouring here for a couple of hours now. Radar estimate is creeping up…

Yes… correct me if I’m wrong but isn’t there some math and physics that show that as temperature drops the amount of water vapor that can be contained in the atmosphere is reduced? So you could never get 9” of rain in a twelve hour span when temps are that low…

Every inch counts…

Even if the eastern areas of RI miss out on the heaviest stuff, it’s a huge win if the western areas get it. Most of the state gets its water from the Scituate Reservoir and its watershed is getting an nice fill up out of this storm.

I think the forecast of 1-2" with isolated jackpots of more than that is going to be a solid forecast for most areas outside of the cape. Patience...

I work in higher-ed, comes with the territory. Other fringe benefits make up for it.

I haven’t had Labor Day off since 2004 lol…

Mega heatwave next 10 days…

With those warm SST’s nearby could lead to a good season for nor'easters… though more likely later into the fall than September…

So just to be clear, we are allowed to use 384 op maps for forecasting drought but not for forecasting rain or snow or temps. Asking for a friend…

Hurricane Floyd 1999: I was the GM of the student radio station at RIC. We decided to make an event out of it. Stayed on the air all night even had an “emergency” plan to rig equipment up to the generator that provided some backup power for lights to stay on the air. Thankfully never came to that. Turned out to be a good time for all involved. We had internet so we could weather provide updates. We helped keep the students stuck on campus in the dorms entertained so Campus Police left us alone. By 3am it was more of a party than a broadcast but no one bothered us and we were well provisioned. Floyd wasn’t too bad in Providence where we were so we never lost power. My mind is fuzzy but we may have somehow won a community service award for that event that year for a bunch of us getting drunk and having a party in the student union. Good times…

Ha didn’t see this thread.. saw cloud to ground strikes on the way home to the Northeast while I was on the Mt Hope Bridge, but it’s the 7-10 split here lol…

Doubtful... we've been seeing underperforming rainstorms for months now. Most are hopeful but not optimistic...

I have but it's still speculation at this point. More than likely it will come to fruition but things can also change quickly. Regardless I think many of replying are in agreement that now is the time to fill up, if you can, because it doesn't look like prices will get much better in the Winter months and will most likely get worse.

I would also agree on filling now. While it's tough to get projections on propane, fuel costs are expected to rise this winter. Gasoline is falling right now, but only because refineries are finally catching up with demand and the markets have priced the Ukraine war into oil based commodities by now. Europe not buying Russian natural gas is a huge wildcard at the moment that could have some chain reactions. It's kind of unprecedented...

This isn’t the first time we have heard unforecasted dry air as the reason for a busted modeled forecast. Are they taking feature requests at NOAA/NCEP?

Yup, it's drying out on the HRRR as well. Each run since 00z has been less... grrr...

I’m feeling bullish on rain tomorrow. Good chances for up to 1” east of the CT river, though there will be pockets of winners and losers like in any good coastal we get. Not surprising we get an anomalous low, during an anomalous pattern, during an anomalous drought. We’re due!

Article is from June but interesting to get some background on upgraded compute for NOAA models: https://www.noaa.gov/news-release/us-supercomputers-for-weather-and-climate-forecasts-get-major-bump

Next 35 days on the GFS Ensemble 00z 8/13 Run...

While the 18z Euro doesn't go far enough out, you can definitely see signifigantly less precipitation south of New England on HR 90. Could be nothing... or something got ingested into the 18z models that dried things out for us...

Drought is weather. And parts of the region are in severe drought, my locale included. The stein meme adds some humor to the discussion but people still are concerned about their gardens, lawns, and trees being stressed by the lack of rain. So yes, we would still care without Mr. Stein… IMO…