bristolri_wx

Lots of dry air being pulled in from the NW below 5000 feet.

So much for that modeled NW hook/tug. Entirely gone from guidance… due north it is.

GFS/GEFS did a good job on this one, but if it ever gets a hurricane track 15 days out it’s pure luck. However it has been in the ballpark and not waivered as much as the Euro throughout Lee’s existence. Score 1 for the Americans!!

In weather model news, Pivotal has the new RRFS, which is replacing the RAP and HRRR sometime in the next year or so: https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=rrfs_a Doesn't look like it's consistently getting data as of yet...

This could be a major concern in eastern facing areas, especially along the coast of Maine. Even though this will be nor'easter strength when it's decaying east of Maine Lee's remnants will probably have more ability to generate coastal flooding because of its strength and size before it begins to wind down. This is probably of more significance than wherever Lee's remnants make landfall.

Took me 15 minutes to figure out WTF this guy was talking about in relation to Tropical Tidbits. To think in my younger days I would watch the Long Ranger on Accuweather Pro to get his opinions, lol...

Nigel’s targeted landfall is the west coast of Scotland. Take that for what it’s worth.

I agree in principal but we’ve had many strong autumn nor’easters that have caused significant amounts of winds and damage… just not hurricane level stuff.

“The environment ahead of Lee is expected to gradually become less conducive for the hurricane as it moves into a region of higher wind shear, drier air, and over progressively cooler SSTs. These conditions favor weakening, but since the system is so large the weakening process should be slow. The NHC intensity forecast is a little lower than the previous one, in part due to the initial lower wind speed, and remains near the HCCA and IVCN guidance. Regardless of the details, there is high confidence that Lee will be a large hurricane near the coast of New England Friday night and Saturday. It should again be noted that the 34- and 50-kt wind speed probabilities beyond 36 hours in the text and graphical products are likely underestimating the risk of those winds occurring. This is because the forecast wind field of Lee is considerably larger than average compared to the wind field used to derive the wind speed probability product.” Stick a fork in it - though perhaps the Tropical Storm force winds will be farther out than we would normally expect. The fact it’s taking a while to wind down may influence that as well. Looks like the rain risk is fading away as well, 1-2” for ESNE 2-4” for Maine…

The narratives around here change about as quickly as the weather. Early on people were excited about direct hits to New England with Lee being a hurricane, and possibly strong, with this unusual eastern track Lee is taking. Some are treating this as a strong nor’easter because Lee will be acting more like that than it will be a landfalling New England hurricane. This doesn’t mean we won’t see effects and damage. But it won’t be like anything like a land falling hurricane that take the usual west of the Gulf Stream track that those storms have made. This will be a decaying storm, over cooler waters, not phasing and experiencing much extra tropical transition until it gets farther pas our area. Nor’easters have also produced damage to our area as well, without snow. There is nothing I see in guidance from models or even the NHC that says otherwise. It’s gonna be a very crummy weekend for a large chunk of New England which falls on the westerns side of Lee.

Not that it matters that much for anyone who has a tree that falls on their house, but Lee might be barely tropical by the time it gets here. Biggest risk here is tree damage from higher winds considering all the rain we have gotten before Lee arrives. Should be quite wet and breezy east of the track. I think many will be disappointed by gusts though.

Just because something is possible doesn't mean it's going to happen. There's a very high probability that this will be a nothing-burger for most, if not all, of New England. There is a very low probability of other outcomes. The NHC forecasts have been outlining this for a while now.

Lee really wants to interact with that Canadian shortwave and phase with it at 500mb. If that shortwave slows down then Lee will move towards it. Right now it goes right by into SE Canada and Lee follows it N/NNE. Not certain by any means, but the trend all day on the GFS has been slightly east each run.

Already turning NE by 75/78...

Excellent point. Here's more info about that storm. Similar track though it looks like it got much farther west than Lee will.

The most useful thing about this post is a direct link to this site: http://arctic.som.ou.edu/tburg/products/realtime/tropical/

“Lee is likely to move over a cool SST wake left behind by Hurricanes Idalia and Franklin later this week, and cross over the north wall of the Gulf Stream by the end of the forecast period. The combination of cooler SSTs, an increase in shear, and dry air entrainment should cause a steady decay in strength late this week and over the weekend.”

You must be new here…

Truth. If we get moderate wind and rain from Lee it still could be a big mess.

It's been torrentially downpouring here in N. Providence for almost 2 hours now. Radar estimated is at the 4-6" range were we are, and more to come. Some reports of flooding...

Agreed, and you provided a better map...

I see that one ensemble member was run off @MJO812’s basement computer. So nice of him to donate computing resources to the ECMWF.

Lots of mediocre water temps for tropical with that EPS track due north at 67 W. Misses out on the nice warm temps of the east coast of the US and the Gulf Stream until it hits 38 N... probably weakens more than modeled as it goes over those cooler temps.

BRING IT!