bristolri_wx

Thank you for your service.

Light snow here for several hours in Newport. Sticking now, 31.

We are all friendly in here. Post what you want. Also, FU… :-)

It’s been lightly snowing here in Newport most of the morning. That’s a good sign in my opinion. The big ones, when summarized, always start out with light rain, drizzle, flurries, etc before all hell breaks loose. Totally unscientific analysis here, but I’m not fretting the Euro changes too much at the moment but do feel bad for those on the edge…

I don't believe that's what the NCAR employee is saying...

Cool, I'll get the lows in sync with my quadraphonic Blaupunkt in my Porsche 911.

Yeah. You can't blame them. If this does end up going sideways, then someone needs to figure out how we can get these models to be more in the ballpark on this type of weather event in the future. Yes, I know "these are tools and you need to know how to use them", but at the same time, I feel confident there's highly trained mets throwing shit in their offices wondering how the hell are they supposed to forecast with so many changes to the data 6-12 hours from when the storm is supposed to start based on location. I can't begin to imagine the amount of data that I don't have access to that there is to analyze when this is your trained profession and job to do. This isn't me melting - I think modeling is fascinating, and it's always interesting to me when they take a dump, especially very close in to an event. This is probably why NWS has been trying to be conservative with forecasts while we have been following along here.

Nah don't forget they are in the UK so they are running it on a cluster of BBC Micro's.

Gut feeling is it's in the same ballpark as 06z. It really hasn't budged much, just wobbles.

Those GDPS/GFS maps are getting better... and still have two more cycles to do so... and you can assume 10-1 won't cut it, as every single met has said there will be higher rates, more like 12-1 to 15-1... maybe more... so more interested in QPF maps than snow maps with low ratios at this point...

Let's keep in mind that the 10-1 maps are not gonna be accurate for this thing. Neither is the Kuchera's, but somewhere in the middle is where we end up for ratios.

FYC

All the high-res 12z models are inching westward and upward from their previous runs. Feeling better about that even as we have other models wobble a little back and forth... the 3K NAM looks awesome as well, once you assume ratios in many places will be higher than 10-1.

I think you're being conservative. It won't take much for us to get 12-18" out of this one. No p-type issues on any model for us. Considering someone somewhere is gonna get 24-30" to the NE of us figuring we get half of that isn't outlandish. Even the RI snow holes are over a foot on most of the guidance.

I mean at this point if the Euro stays on point at 12z, then you just start mostly ignoring the other output unless you see really see drastic changes at 500mb and 700mb. @Ginx snewx has stressed this and I believe this too. It's just so UNUSUAL for this type of disagreement this close in, but then again, this is an very anomalous setup, so maybe resolution isn't on your side in this scenario... also, anything that NCEP is running with an FV3 core doesn't seem to be getting a good handle on this. Something for them study after the storm if the Euro/NAM solution holds up.

No more Blizzard Watch. They still have warnings.

There’s a lot of Irish pubs out there that make a great Shepard’s Pie, though home made is often the best.

Nope not saying that at all. The high-res models are just preventing me from being confident. More times than not the high res and the euro are in agreement at this range. It definitely could be an overly complex situation that’s causing divergence. The fact that the Euro has been solid for several runs in a row is a reason to stick with it for sure.

The Euro and the NAM seem to be on their own with the heavy precip and westward extent. Some of the other hi-res models aren’t as bullish for central and western New England. Wish this felt like a slam dunk for everyone but waking up still feel like there’s still some details to sort out today that will affect this board. Only consensus is for 12” or more east of 95/495… that’s about it and we are 18 hours from go… weird…

So no concern with the Hi-Res models being farther east with this thing?

It was posted somewhere in this thread near/during the 18z catastrophe yesterday…

Yeah looking over records now usually just short of 24".

I'm not discounting your theory it may end up being less in the locations you mentioned, but I'm sure that all of the locations you have mentioned have seen two feet of snow on a few occasions in the last 25 years. But yes, very rare, and almost never a jackpot location in this setup.