bristolri_wx

I would confidently toss this NAM considering how different it is from all other models. Of course if the other 18z's come in similar trends then we worry. This concludes my John Madden-like weather model commentary.

Keep the faith... modeling hasn't been good this season for us, for both hits and misses, even at this range. GFS hasn't been good last couple of weeks according to multiple sources. I feel like the trends tomorrow will be the important ones as better data comes in. Right now its kind of the Euro against the other globals but who knows it might be on to something. It was worrisome that some perfect scenarios showed up on the models YESTERDAY, which is a little far out to my liking. Prefer those outcomes a little closer in knowing how models adjust closer to storm formation and arrival.

Out of curiosity, I went over to weather.us and looked at some of the other models available there. The French, Chinese, Korean are on the eastern side of the guidance as well. We know what the skill levels are there, but it does make you wonder what's making some of the models go east of the Euro/CMC...

The calm before the 0z GFS...

This was a torchy run of the GFS... lol...

He's also not a fan of the metric system. Definitely going to follow him on Twitter now.

It's the best I could do in 60 seconds in Photoshop lol. I had to eyeball it based on two different maps. LOL

Brutal screw zone....

Seems like we're getting all the signals we want to see 5 days out for a region wide storm. Let's narrow the goal posts. Realistically the 5 day forecast would be 6-12" for most unless something drastically changes like a mixing component or a weird dry slot, and then there will be some banding/jackpots that are more in the 12-18" range. Will be fun to follow the rest of the week. I'll take the 6" IMBY.

I posted some graphics from Pivotal earlier - 0" to 12" over 2/3 of a mile on the GFS soundings...

I would just like to point out the comical line for 0" to 12" of snow for .01 degrees increase of latitude on the GFS EDIT - According to my math, and google, 1 degree of latitude is equal to 69 miles, so .01 would be approximately 2/3 of a mile between 0" and 12" of snow, verbatim, from this clown map LOL!!!

There’s hope for a decent storm for everyone here at this range. Can’t get a real handle on p-type issues until the high res models get into play. The fact that 500 mb looks good, and there is a storm not scooting out to sea or cutting to Toronto is enough for now at this range, even for the I95/SENE folks.

Well that was an exciting day of football...

Guaranteed: at least one post that mentions sun angle.

Fired up my TRS-80 to run the MM5 as I writes this. Will post when completed.

Your not. If the prices went up 25% here, they went up 25% in Hawaii too

Chicken wings are now the most expensive part of the chicken, thanks to supply/demand. Been like that at the supermarket for a while now, even before the pandemic. Employment/supply chain issues making that even worse now.

He’s supports our military. He runs the Air Force MM5 on an old DEC VAX in his basement.

CFS has been pretty good this winter. @40/70 Benchmark mentioned it was pretty good in December, and January has been pretty good as well. Good in terms of forecasting the general pattern(s)…

In all seriousness, Michelin Defender LTX M/S - best all seasons I’ve ever owned have them on both SUV’s…

Yup been snowing in Newport for 3 hours. Heavy accumulations. Glad I have AWD.

Good point - didn't even think of that, forgot the weather sensor data on commercial flights. Also I think the fast flow that Tip is often talking about is a problem - all these waves are moving quickly and start out in locations where data sampling is minimal. The best guesses made by the models just aren't accurate for this type of pattern until things get closer to "go time".

All the models are having difficulty this winter. Clearly there's something going on with data ingested and such in accurately modeling east-coast snow storms this season. The problems may be related the increased resolution across the board on all the global models.