bristolri_wx

Aren't these the type of setups where meso's usually do better vs globals? Not mattering to me much here either way, but I feel like the fine line between frozen precipitation and rain would show up more on the meso/hi-res models...

I agree. There’s probably too many breweries out there right now because it’s trendy - same situation here in RI. Not all of them are good and some will close because of it as the market relaxes.

Hmm might get an hour or two of snow out of this. Radar looks robust…

This weather is f-ing terrible. Mix of sleet and freezing rain here, 30 degrees. With a 1/4” of slop on the ground.

Still all rain down here in Newport.

Looks like the temps have dropped 5-10 degrees here in the last hour. Winds shifting to N.

GFS has been gradually catching up. I'm not sure it's been dramatically out-to-lunch at this one. Not really defending it, but it's been correcting northward gradually each run. JMO... All the hi-res guidance looks great for NNE...

HRW FV3 looks good for you as well...

Already lost about 1/3 of what fell on Saturday. I think most of it will be gone by tomorrow night at this rate. Torchin and rainin here... lol...

Viewership for this storm is on the low side... NCEP "weather executives" are preparing the NAM for a region wide dump of snow at 18z followed by a cutting the low through Toronto at 00z to "spice things up."

Well it was nice having snow on the ground for a few days. All that precip plus temps in upper 40’s means this stuff will be gone by Saturday. Unless something changes. This has the feeling of a rainer down here.

I used to enjoy partaking in the DGEX and MM5 over at Accuweather Pro… their 30 day trial system was broken and I had a free account for almost 3 years.

@George001, This model debate is a little silly. All the models have some value in forecasting, and the big 4, (Euro, GFS, UKMET, CMC) all have high enough verification scores where they should all be considered when issuing a forecast. Even with the last storm both the GFS and Euro were correct and incorrect in different ways. If you read the NWS AFD’s they always mention using weighted blends of the models to render their forecasts. Ignoring any one model will reduce your ability to accurately predict what’s going on if the others happen to be wrong.

Looks like UKMET/GFS vs Euro/CMC at the moment... If you blend all four of them you get a nice hit for NNE and ice, rain, a few inches snow, and maybe kitchen sink in SNE. Hopefully things trend towards the former rather than the latter...

My entire interest is "don't wash away/melt my snow" lol... anything that's not that is bonus time.

I could be mistaken here, but last few weeks, it looks like models have underestimated the cold whenever there's been an arctic push from the north predicted. Hopefully that cold air pushes south enough to get snow in the forecast for most of the region.

I think for most of us, we do a best guess, and we try to be as close as possible. However, NWS has their own guide how to take accurate measurements that are consistent, so in theory, if you want to report those numbers to the NWS, you should be following their guidelines, whenever possible: https://www.weather.gov/media/coop/Snow_Measurement_Guidelines-2014.pdf

Share the wealth - as long as it doesn't get washed away elsewhere.

Both GFS and Euro look relatively cold and dry after whatever this mess is comes through...

Took a few measurements in my yard last night before coming in, and came up with 21". That seemed to make sense to me, as there were other folks in Bristol and Warren reporting the same after I checked on the NWS site. However, checked the NWS site today and they had removed all the high numbers from Bristol, went with 18" report instead. Seems an inch or two low to me, but in the end it's not a big deal. Swansea, Fall River, and Tiverton were all in the 20's are right nearby and were also in that death band just as long as me. Also had a chance to take a little drive around town - no photos unfortunately. Some awesome scenes down at Colt Sate Park. Lots of fields and open spaces near the water were bare ground, and then suddenly, you would get into spots with 4-6 foot drifts where all that blowing snow had a chance to settle. Cool stuff. Plus my son finally had a big storm to have some fun sledding and attempting to build snow forts and piles with this rather fluffy stuff. A great storm overall, even if it wasn't historic as we wanted it to be.

Congrats! I had a good feeling about this one for you, though no clue it would be a record breaker. This arctic air mass made the difference.

Not often that my neighborhood leads the state in snow, but after clearing the driveway, I believe it. Definitely in the 20-24” range here.