bristolri_wx

My pack is gone, except for a few piles from shoveling. It's been mid 40's here most of the day...

Not sure how... 10c is the next set of dotted lines to the right. The temp scale is at the bottom...

Don't get too depressed yet, highly unlikely that forecasted warm layer verifies like that...

Hits like 33F at 800mb... just barely...

I'm not that good at keeping track of them personally. I remember a lot of them when I was growing up (80s/90s) - a lot of 2-4" or 3-6" south of Providence and 1-3" north of Providence maps on TV when those storms would come around. Usually they would perform as expected.

Sorry man, Newport is never in a good spot, except for some of those redeveloping Alberta clippers that shoot by directly south of New England... not much better up here. We usually get 125-150% of whatever Newport gets in most situations.

It seems rather difficult to even figure out where that deformation band sets up in New England. It's different just about every time with these storms. It's also why we will never be able to predict snowfall to the inch - you get into the larger predictions and the range needs to be larger to account for the bands. It may take another decade of modeling resolution increases to get close to that point. I thought your forecast was on point and 6-12 seems valid for most of the area. The Cape busted high because that band was really juicy at the end and temps did not get quite as warm as expected.

Stop making RI look bad lol. Be happy with the 10". It's not a widespread 12" amount. Cumberland/Woonsocket is almost always in the higher end for RI. We barely have 6" down here and I'm only 22 miles away.

About 5-6" here in Bristol. What I expected. Probably same QPF as others but not quite as fluffy as others have reported which probably caused lower snowfall total. Still coming down moderately here in this last exiting band...

Not sure if there's enough cold air around for that one to be all snow.

I’m eyeballing 4” haven’t found the yard stick yet to measure. It’s 29 degrees here no issues sticking to the ground.

Yes, it’s due to the East Bay/West Bay de-snowification zone.

I believe it’s based off the same core as the GFS. It’s slated to replace the NAM in the next couple of years. I bet @OceanStWxknows more. I’ve been looking at it since it’s become available and anecdotally it’s seems to be an improvement over the NAM.

Cheer up your part of the state usually does pretty well in this sort of setup. Maybe you won’t be the New England jack pot but there’s a good chance you could be the RI one…

I was born in RI and have lived here all my life. While East Bay is a commonly used term, no one really uses West Bay to describe anything in the state.

I wouldn't trust some of the snow maps honestly at the moment - not because they are giving us bad news, but because there is some model weirdness going on. The GFS sounding has the temp rising 7 degrees to 35 at the surface as the storm has passed us to the ENE with winds coming out of the NW and thicknesses between 516 and 520 over head. That's just not happening - its not common sense weather. And that type of output is going to affect snowfall map output. It's not going to rain over my house with 850 temps -18C, yet that's what the surface output on the GFS says is happening. All I'm saying is that there's a lot of doom and gloom here, but there's a lot of model spread still and a lot of weirdness going on. 2-4" and 3-6" seems realistic and probably at this point. I guess it sucks that we're not getting a 12", but after last week's garbage I'm surprised we're even getting this...

Ignore the models that are flip-flopping, and stick with the models that are consistent. NAM is wavering back and forth on this one, especially the 12k. Keep it lower on the list of consideration. Not a wish-cast here, just seems like common sense.

Why? The modeling has improved since 00z, not the other way around. The trends have been better...

Not too shabby... seems reasonable...

The GFS and the FV3 Hi-Res were garbage on yesterday's "storm". Yes new storm new analysis, but if it's a pattern related issue, then it may not be as trustworthy as we would like.

A 3-6” event would be great. Not every storm needs to be a 12”+ event. Also, anecdotally, I feel like the mechanics required for 3-6” and 4-8” events are much easier to get widespread across most and/or all of New England, including the South Coast. Often the most amplified solutions have mixing issues or miss a chunk of the region. Even in the “holy grail” season of 2014-2015, my neck of the woods only had about 60” of snow. While most portions other portions of New England were at 100” or more especially eastern areas. Let’s get the ball rolling here and hope for warning level snows and go from there!

It was always going to be close there. Even the HRRR was showing a decent bout of snow there until very recently. Might be a few hours before they decide to abandon them entirely... it was a close call, but going with a warning instead of an advisory was probably the call to make based on the forecasting tools available.

The models are clearly having issues with this overall winter pattern. This is going to be a tough forecasting season. I’m sure there are “improvements” using 500mb “verifications” though lol…

People can’t even figure out which potential storm this thread is for lol…

I'll take the under on he SREF output. Boy what a c**k****e for those S/E of 95 on that map... If I get some flurries/snow showers after this week I call it a win lol...