hudsonvalley21

Upton’s thoughts, a section of their AFD below, Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 802 PM EDT Wed May 22 Some showers and thunderstorms have fired up west of the area along and ahead of a pre frontal trough. Some of this activity could make it into western portions of the area overnight, mainly north and west of NYC, but is not expected to be severe with a lack of shear. The better chances for showers and thunderstorms for our area will be as the cold front starts to slowly move through the area Thursday morning. PoPs have trended earlier in the day with a shift in timing in the 12z CAMs. Given the environment, with MLCAPE values around 1000-1500 J/kg and 0-6 km shear increasing to around 35-40 kt, some storms could become strong to severe. The SPC continues to outline the area in a "marginal" risk of severe weather, with large hail and damaging winds being the main threat. Given the high pwats, any thunderstorms could also produce heavy downpours. At this time, there are no flooding concerns. Given the activity in the morning, it will be difficult to destabilize again for the afternoon and we will likely see just lingering showers as the front continues to sag through the area. However, if we end up seeing less or no activity in the morning, the stronger showers/thunderstorms could be in the afternoon. For this reason, have left chance of thunder through the day Thursday.

There’s a small line currently in eastern Pa that is around 2 hours out. Maybe it could hold together somewhat.

87.8 was the high for the 2nd day in a row at KSWF.

87.8 was the official high temperature at KSWF.

Congratulations and best wishes for your family!

Here is a YouTube live storm chasing site

DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH __ DEN _ PHX _ SEA 0.9 1.0 1.8 2.2 1.3 1.4 0.8 0.3 1.2

33 for the low here. Point n click forecast is for a low of 32 for tonight.

33 for the low here. Point n click forecast is for a low of 32 for tonight.

Have a great time on your sortie.

Hopefully not too much damage.

Felt it up here in the Hudson valley, Must have felt it for being close to the ramapo fault line.

DCA: +3.1NYC: +4.2BOS: +4.1ORD: +3.2ATL: +2.1IAH: +2.6DEN: +2.7PHX: +2.3SEA: +2.9

2.77” is the total here.

35 degrees here currently. 0.95” in the Davis so far. No ice accretion on any surfaces here at 125’ in elevation.

Upton bumped up their latest QPF map.

It’s 10 days out, you never know. A broken clock is right twice a day.

12z NAM and gfs are trending wetter vs the 06z runs.

Thanks much. February is fine without the accurate info. Over 21” so far in 6 months with the rest of March to go. Only could imagine if we had a colder airmass what the frozen totals would have been for the last 3 months.

It’s like a sponge out there. Went to the angry orchard last Sunday before this weeks rain and it was sloppy then. Was wondering if you have the monthly precip totals since October. Can’t remember when I had to drain the pool so many times vs. years before.

Enjoy! Have a beverage for me

51 here. Sun is breaking thru the thinning cloud deck. 1.31” in the Davis with the latest event.

A couple of runs in a row. You never know Long way to go tho.

For wxdude64 He posted this in the February thread. Posting for March, just in case I can't 'computer' in a couple days lol IF I can, may update before cutoff. Thanks DCA: +0.8 NYC: +1.4 BOS: +1.7 ORD: +0.9 ATL: -0.4 IAH: -0.5 DEN: -0.3 PHX: -0.8 SEA: +1.6