hudsonvalley21

I was at the Easter egg hunt at the Social Island farm in Goshen Sunday morning. It was 41 degrees with a wind gusting in the 40’s. Amazing too see the black dirt blowing around. The conditions didn’t slow down the kids a bit.

The wind changed from the west around 2pm along with the dewpts and humidity dropping rapidly put the end of the show for us folks up this way.

No and the dewpts are dropping. Currently 41 at KSWF. It was at 57 at 1pm when the wind shifted more westerly. edit, the humidity was at 78% now it’s 41%.

Mesoscale Discussion 0432 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0337 PM CDT Sat Apr 01 2023 Areas affected...parts of eastern Pennsylvania...New Jersey...Delaware and eastern Maryland and southern New York Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 107... Valid 012037Z - 012230Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 107 continues. SUMMARY...Storms may rejuvenate along the front as it moves into eastern Pennsylvania and southern New York, with additional develop possible ahead of the front from the Delmarva into New Jersey. Damaging winds are likely, with a risk of isolated tornadoes and large hail by early evening. DISCUSSION...Showers and embedded thunderstorms continue to move rapidly east with the cold front, with a relative decrease in severe wind gusts compared to earlier in the day, due in part to limited moisture. East of the ongoing central PA/NY activity, temperatures continue to warm, with a recent trend of a few stations reporting rising dewpoints across southern NJ and far southeast PA. Satellite imagery shows increasing CU over parts of MD, though this activity is currently shallow. Over the next 1-2 hours, additional storms are expected to form from the Delmarva across far eastern PA and into NJ, as lift increases. Some storms may become supercells, and the tornado risk will also increase through early evening coincident with strengthening low-level shear and cooling aloft. Any increase in dewpoints will also increase the probability of a tornado. Activity may become linear as the cold front overtakes any activity ahead of it, with both damaging winds possible across southern NY and New England.

Full sun here on this west side of the Hudson. 66/57. We’ll see what happens later. Have to watch for those decrete cells before the front.

DCA +2.6NYC +2.1BOS +2.2ORD +1.1ATL +2.8IAH +3.1DEN +0.2PHX +0.3SEA -2.3

Had the same in accumulation. Back to moderate snow currently, temp 33. Super heavy snow, it was like shoveling water. Forecast has another 2-4” for today. Hopefully the winds don’t hit what’s forecasted. HRRR still showing another 2-7” in our area for today.

00z HRRR has been basically holding serv for the last few hours. We’ll see how things pan out tomorrow. I’m thinking on the low side of accumulations at my location with the elevation of 125’. Maybe 3-6. Up at higher elevations, it will be a different story.

37/36 with a few pingers and flakes mixed in. Elevation 125’

37/36 here with a few flakes and pingers mixed in. Elevation 125’

And the winds slamming the snowpaste on tree limbs and power lines.

What NAM would you lean towards, 3 or 12k?

Most models are basically showing around 2” of QPF just to the north of NYC now it’s just what p-type falls and where.

Agree, it’s been steady for the last few runs.

Sometimes the meetings are delayed

Hope it verifies for you.

Yes it’s possible. Elevation comes into play. For example, last nights event, I had 0.50” on grassy surfaces for the total accumulation. At 125’ in elevation on Storm King mountain, there was 3” at 1,100’.

Surface and mid level air temps along with sun angle. Then warmer ground temps. That’s my thoughts.

Maybe take off 75%

Also, it’s March. If it was January or February, there would be a higher chance of getting those 10:1 ratios.

Till the next run. It’s like throwing darts. We do know it’s a high probability of a strong storm. These slight shifts in model runs can go up to nowcast time.

0.5” on grassy surfaces. That does it here at 125’ in elevation.

Same here. It finally flipped over to all snow and at a moderate rate.

Was in the town of Newburgh about 30 minutes ago it was mostly a mixed bag and 34 degrees. Here in New Windsor currently 35 degrees with ice pellets mixed in and 0.24” in the tipper.