hudsonvalley21

Nice AFD from Upton, X Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 1125 AM EDT Sat Jul 6 2024 .SYNOPSIS... A trough of low pressure lingers over the area through Saturday afternoon as a cold front approaches. The front then stalls and lingers into Sunday before dissipating as high pressure builds from the west. Another frontal system approaches early next week with its associated cold front moving in towards midweek. This frontal boundary could very well linger nearby from mid to late week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... ***Key Points*** 1.) Heat Advisories remains in effect across NE NJ, NYC, N Nassau Co, Lower Hudson Valley and Fairfield Co. Heat index values could reach up to 105F for southern portions of NE NJ. All other areas under the Heat Advisory could see heat indices peak between 98-100F. 2.) Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms re-develop this afternoon & evening. Chances look better for western locations. A prefrontal surface trough is expected to linger just west of the Hudson River this afternoon before a weak cold front approaches from the west and slowly passes and stalls tonight. This occurs in tandem with an upper-level trough to our north which weakens through tonight. First round of showers and thunderstorms are moving out east late this morning. CAPEs recuperate this afternoon, especially INVOF NYC metro and areas north and west with partly sunny conditions and a moist boundary layer. SBCAPES of 1500-2500 J/kg anticipated for these areas. With the trough in place and subtle shortwave energy providing some mechanical lift, iso-sct showers and thunderstorms anticipated for approx the western half of the forecast area mid afternoon into early evening. Bulk shear in combination with CAPE is enough for at least some consideration of severe wind gust potential in thunderstorms, mainly NW of NYC where conditions will be slightly more favorable. Freezing/wet-bulb zero heights are rather high, so while hail will be possible given CAPE and shear aloft, chances are it won`t reach severe thresholds. After about 9 or 10pm, most of the shower and thunderstorm activity should be cleared out of the area with a front stalling across the area. Patchy fog may occur with persistent cloud cover across eastern areas, but will mainly depend on where the weak front stalls. Overnight lows will drop into the low/mid-70s. Flash flooding threat remains lows this afternoon into evening. PWATs have lowered to around 1.75" in the area where showers and storms are more likely to occur, and the flow aloft is strong enough to prevent very slow-moving cells. Should training occur, there could be a low threat of flash flooding, but looking at mainly minor urban/poor drainage flooding potential. Dewpoints generally in the mid 70s this afternoon with actual highs in the upper-80s to low-90s in the NYC metro and areas N/W of NYC. The rest of S CT and LI see highs in the mid/low-80s with far eastern areas in the upper-70s for afternoon highs. Heat Advisories remain posted across NE NJ, NYC, N Nassau Co, Lower Hudson Valley and Fairfield Co. Heat index values could reach up to 105F in spots for the urban corridor of NE NJ. All other areas under the Heat Advisory could see heat indices peak between 95-100F. Some guidance appears to veer winds from S to SW late in the day, advecting in drier low-level air. Should this occur earlier than expected, heat advisory criteria may be more on the marginal side for some areas outside of NE NJ, but for now, expecting a later arrival of this drier air.

0.38 around 6pm yesterday and 1.15” this morning for a total of 1.53” in 12 hours. Great for the garden. Had a dew pt. of 77 last night. Definitely Florida like conditions.

DCA: +4.3NYC: +2.9BOS: +2.9ORD: +2.4ATL: +2.6IAH: +2.2DEN: +2.5PHX: +2.3SEA: +0.7

Glad to hear no damage, hopefully you get the power back on soon. 0.51” in the bucket. My Daughter is by Craigsville rd and luckily did not loose power.

A photo from Facebook near Lego Land in Orange County

Had gusts to 40+. Not much in thunder and a moderate rain.

They put the 2% tor risk back in.

Had a total of 0.71 here.

You might sweat more

Temps dropped off quickly last night. I was at the Fair oaks drive-in, it was 73 at 8:00 and dropped of to 59 by 11:30. Bottomed out to 54 IMBY.

0.49” will do it here.

Agree, 0.21” in the bucket from the first line.

Even looking at Mount Beacon from Newburgh’s water front, there’s large patches completely stripped. Large numbers of those leaf eaters this year.

Those suckers had a field day around West Point. A bunch of trees stripped.

Had a quick shower here around 9am. Still under a heavy cloud deck currently.

And the HRDPS at 5 pm. Most of the other mesoscale models are showing activity at that time. Had a quick shower around 9 am, still a heavy cloud deck up this way currently.

Hi Rodger, I added my seasonal maxes. Thanks for all you do!

The Tent Caterpillar showing this year is the largest I’ve seen in the last few years. See a bunch of crabapple trees stripped throughout the area. The HRRR is showing a few showers moving thru later this afternoon and early evening, hopefully it will wash some of that poop away.

Thank goodness I only got 0.04” in the bucket. Saves me from shoveling the driveway

0.04” here.

0.86 here.

DCA: +0.8 101NYC: +1.2 101BOS: +1.1 99ORD: +0.3. 95ATL: +1.6 98IAH: +2.2. 103DEN: +2.1 100PHX: +1.4 119SEA: +1.5 98

Orange County NY Fire Calls Mutual Aid: Monroe Fire - UTV Warwick Fire - UTV Chester Fire - UTV Tuxedo Fire - UTV Florida Fire - UTV (Unable to Crew) South Blooming Grove Fire - UTV Pine Island Fire - UTV Woodbury Fire - UTV Goshen Fire - UTV (Unable to Crew) Cronomer Valley Fire - UTV New Hampton Fire - UTV (Unable to Crew) Salisbury Mills Fire - UTV Johnson Fire - UTV Sloatsburg Fire - 1 Engine to Standby 36-1 36-3 36-15 36-16 Orange County Field Comm

Just some light rain and a few rumbles here with the first cell. It was a little rowdy in the Greenwood Lake area with some trees down, this one slid just to our south. We’ll see what happens with the second round of activity that’s on our doorstep.

Hopefully they check the radar before heading out.