Torchageddon

Yesterday was the most beautiful day of winter thus far. I had light flakes falling starting in the morning with it mainly sunny occasionally obscured by thin wisps of stratus simultaneously. There was light LES 15 miles to my west that wafted the flurries over despite blue skies overhead.

My forecast was for 20 cm, so far I have 10 cm on elevated surfaces and mainly 5 cm on grass and roads. Nothing has been falling for a few hours and I think i'll just have nuisance flakes later. Knowing nothing about this winter event this outcome is pretty much exactly what I was expecting. I'm curious to know how much Collingwood and Owen Sound get though.

Somehow I'm still at 20C with a humidex of 21C past midnight here . I'm gusting to 28 mph so far, can really hear the winds ramp up.

Nearly 3 hours after sunset and I'm still sitting at 21C, humidex at 22C - absolutely insane. Lakeshore ON at 22C, humidex at 24C.

So far today I've mostly been stuck under clouds but having a humidex of 25C is just stupid amazing for Nov 10. Mississauga, Milton, and Brampton ON is at 24C with a humidex of 27!

Don't toy with my heart like that!! I don't think its comparable to the ultimate (I pray it ends up being anyways), but more like the Dec 2015 heat event which at first I thought would edge this out, but now I'm putting this in front of it. My avg temp during this part of Nov is 7ºC so I'm getting +13-14C departures. Sitting at 21C now, sensor may be wonky.

I'm already at 20ºC, too easy. My 7-day now shows minimal rain on Tuesday night into Wednesday (1mm) and mainly sunny conditions the rest of the period . Thurs to Sat all 8C with 6 hours of sun respectively (not that I trust that but if I were to doubt anything, it'd be how low those highs are).

That's what I thought in Dec 2011, we never did end up paying for it but instead got a gift in March. My rule of thumb for this week has been to add 3ºC to whatever my TWN daily high is forecast and so far its been 2/3, my high for today is bumped by 1C, so another 2C to go.

I'm already over-performing sitting at 17C - 63F when the high was suppose to be 16C. Now its 18C with mostly cloudy skies later. I sense temps will be over-performing during the entire stretch and hopefully by jaw-dropping margins. Now I just need these clouds to bug off.

I woke up to something miraculous, blue skies and not **** weather!! My dream is in sight, my 7-day is showing both 20ºC and sunny conditions for at least one day! I've had 18C with high winds and mostly cloudy (in Nov) but never that gold standard since I've started. Incredibly both Sun and Mon show no clouds and near 20C - average winds. If it verifies, it would be by far the best Nov weather of my life, I'm not going to mention what that reminds me of as not to jinx this . Alpena MI showed 24ºC (75F) just a little while ago, crazy. In fact I don't remember the last time I've seen a clear blue sky day here in Nov, more rare than a quad rainbow. Maybe 9 years ago?

I did a facepalm when I saw recon was departing from MS not Miami, then when I realized recon returning wasn't a joke I facepalmed myself into a meme. I think this might be tops.

Snow is starting to stick on surfaces, I'm getting many changing rates and snow types - at times heavy.

I'm getting my first flakes of the season currently, quite late for my typical first. Its surprising considering I've just experienced the worst October. I had some peeks of sunshine briefly too.

I was disappointed to hear that surrounding states need to do the same, I pray they do. If you mean started DST 15 years ago then I'd be mad still too. The 12z Euro at 240 hours is popping something good on the 500 mb map. If I manage to get to 68ºF with sun then I'd say that would be a good Nov day.

Wasn't Zeta suppose to be a strong TS at landfall when it was still 5 days away? Yet again a storm that is underhyped is now going to overperform, basically a rule of thumb at this point. It's ludicrous to even consider a CAT3 hurricane making landfall this afternoon, a true 2020 feature.

4:03 PM EDT Friday 23 October 2020 Tornado warning in effect for: Hanover - Dundalk - Southern Grey County A potential tornado is approaching the area between Dundalk and Corbetton. Severe thunderstorms are approaching from the southwest. Rotation is shown on the radar. Why can't they just remove Hanover from the header, its over 60 km away from the cell!

Was put under a tornado watch, saw some monstrous broccoli heads out there. It may have been the most impressive I've ever seen IMBY. I would not be surprised if that Mount Forest cell now heading for Dundalk dropped something. The severe cells are remarkably consistent.

Convection is exploding ahead of schedule by 1.5 hours here as I got a brief downpour. In these initial cells there is a tiny risk of a spin-up.

I'm enjoying my final hours of decent sunshine of 2020, in twelve hours though: Supposedly this is going to be the last 20ºC day of 2020 (so just 1 hour of that with some sun). What a crappy October.

I was in the middle of responding to what you posted on Mon but yes, wtf happened this morning/early afternoon? I even had some fine mist briefly at 1 pm!! The bolded idea makes me want to bug out, I'm not hanging around til May with that ****.

With today's stunning disappointment for sunshine, and a few hours of possible quality weather on Monday, followed by cold temps and rain next week, I question the seasonal outlook of a warmer than average fall. I don't check the 500 mb forecast from any model, it'll just put me in a bad mood. I doubt I'll get a blizzard or a 20ºC Christmas day with some sun so why would I have any joy for the upcoming period of Zzzz. I don't see a ~29ºC anywhere on my 7-day so no stellar weather except maybe for 1 hour on Monday. Exactly

I was one step ahead, I stopped checking a month ago. I was tired of 'rona in early April and stopped watching/following the news and everything became better instantly. I quickly read a few headlines and sometimes read an article every 3 days but that's the extent of it. As for weather, it hasn't been interesting since early Sept when I got my 3 thunderstorms and then it was over for the year (insanity) plus the 2nd half of Sept was putrid. I'm in Canada in the snowbelt, I don't even get interesting winter weather anymore (going on 4 years) so I think I'm outta here again.

For a week I was looking forward to this weekend and some modest warmth and sunshine after the mixed week, instead of waking up to the final hours of good weather I see a dark, gloomy overcast (noon is as bright as 6:45 pm!!) and higher than expected winds. Just 24 hours ago it was showing mainly sunny conditions. This was the last day on my 7-day showing both 20C+ and some sunlight...

This is one ugly-looking hurricane on IR, every frame it loses more of its shape. Its rather bizarre looking.

A rapidly deepening hurricane with a possible new LLC forming, its 2020 alright.