DDweatherman

Absolutely does, except his map this time isn’t even the euro lol. Wish he was right…but he’s not

Does SV have the AI too? Didn't realize since we usually see the pretty maps.

A lot easier and less misleading.

I’m not out, but this one is on life support for us.

There is the right chance for a backside phase.

How about 18z?

It’s a bit confusing too. Kicker is somewhat there, but not enough in my eyes to usher things out to sea that way given the h5 leading in. It’s indeed more positive and slightly less sharp on those frames.

Interesting indeed. I’m looking for the hint, and through that frame I’m having a harder time finding it. Dropping in further west and ridge is pumped a bit higher in the rockies/PNW. Heights slightest bit lower in east but shouldn’t hurt it as badly at that hour. Must show up more in the next frame or two.

I didn’t look at any h5 to say one way or another, just if something woulda got picked up. Seems like the biggest factor as I said in another comment is basing this off the tilt of the closed UL. Even if this originates a bit west of the prior runs, the real improvement needs to come in the orientation of things with that.

The tilt is arguably more important than location, especially with the origin of this.

Not a criticism, genuine question. Would a met reading and doing pbp have been able to see things there and say “well h5 is displaced west of 18z kinda nicely now however XXX happens negating those positive developments”

Not looking at the runs, but it’s evident everything being west now isn’t everything for willing it closer. The line to be drawn on the coastal obviously has everything to do with tilt of the trough regardless of the location&base.

Now we’re starting to see where the complexity of this could wreak havoc on modeling.

It’s there but it’s not that close, weird evolution of the low. Interesting to track.

Ggem should be an improvement over 12z by the looks of things through h72