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About blackrock

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  • Four Letter Airport Code For Weather Obs (Such as KDCA)
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  • Location:
    Spring Lake, MI

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  1. Winter 2017-18 Medium/Long Range Disco

    Skeptical. The pattern has not been productive at all over the past several years...decade...in "creating cold air" in the Great Lakes region. I'm about to throw in the towel on this winter. I sure wish you would be right, but the odds have certainly been against over the past several years.
  2. This is why the Tug Hill SUCKS and I win.

    The Keweenaw Peninsula SUCKS because we almost lost bo in a 20 foot snow-drift a couple months ago...thank goodness he sent us a head's up from his phone 15 feet below.......
  3. This is why the Tug Hill SUCKS and I win.

    The Tug Hill is in the midst of an extreme weather event in terms of record highs along the eastern third of the nation. It seems a little short-sighted to only use this situation as an example of why the "tug sucks". YES, the UP has a better likelihood of not getting many thaws at all....in actuality...it has been in the 40s to 60s in Tug several days this month, and the fact that they still have a couple feet is pretty impressive in itself.
  4. Winter 2017-18 Medium/Long Range Disco

    Maybe we'll need to start relying on systems coming in from the NORTHEAST like the Canadian is showing at the end of its run...because we surely can't get any snow from the Southwest.........
  5. Winter 2017-18 Medium/Long Range Disco

    Thanks for sharing your thoughts. What I have noticed though...is it seems like the systems are progged to fizzle as they move east. Some previous runs have shown this occurring before the systems even get to the Great Lakes region. The 12Z GFS shows this happening more as it goes to the east coast. What is the main component causing this "shredder look"?
  6. Winter 2017-18 Medium/Long Range Disco

    ....or they come to the Midwest to die......
  7. Winter 2017-18 Medium/Long Range Disco

    I think we'll have to continue relying on clippers if we're going to get much snow in March. We just can't get the southern and northern jets to cooperate here...for several years now. I wonder how common a clipper pattern is during the month of March? Like I said yesterday, we definitely wouldn't retain the fluff snow in the March sunshine. Snow piles still all over the place around here and along driveways. I even have a patch of snow that survived in my backyard. It is at the bottom of a slight hill in deep shade...and is always the last to lose its snow. Maybe I should go roll around in it? Ha!
  8. Winter 2017-18 Medium/Long Range Disco

    Oh, I know. No surprise things don't look at good for the Great Lakes... Yawn. Had an interview via Skype with the place in Chautauqua County last night. Have one next week in Lowville via Zoom.
  9. It is indeed a beautiful area. I could never live there though. Way too overcrowded and congested with tourists from Chicago and Detroit....like your friend. lol
  10. Winter 2017-18 Medium/Long Range Disco

    Yeah, I've been checking out things on their forums and they are all VERY excited and proclaiming 100% likelihood of significant winter storms over there. Meanwhile, here in the Great Lakes sub-forum...nearly a mention of a flake. lol.... As some others were saying, we don't have as many hardcore winter people on here. Perhaps we just have more realists... I, however, am ALWAYS rooting for winter!
  11. Feb. 19-24 Heavy rain and flooding threat

    Cold front went through and the temp dropped 10 degrees in an hour. It's currently in the upper 30s here, while 35 miles to the east in Grand Rapids it is in the upper 50s.
  12. Traverse City can see big-time thaws with southerly winds, which cause downsloping off of the higher elevations to the south. If there is a strong surge of warmth moving into Michigan, TVC can often be the warmest spot in all of Michigan. I am learning you really want to be at a higher elevation in the lake effect snow belts to experience a great winter.
  13. February 2018 Discussion

    And that, my friend, is why I'd prefer some synoptic snowstorms moving in from the southwest. System snow puts up a MUCH better fight against thaws and late winter sunshine in comparison to high-ratio fluff.
  14. Winter 2017-18 Medium/Long Range Disco

    GFS has been doing some goofy things in the long range (surprise surprise!). Once the colder air starts to sink in again next week, any low pressure moving in just gets shredded apart on the GFS. I guess that's not too goofy.....
  15. February 2018 Discussion

    About 30 miles north of the Warm Front here. Holland, on the southern end of my county is in the upper 50s, while up here it is 40 with several inches of snow remaining on the ground. Front seems to have stalled a bit.